[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 312150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312150 
NCZ000-312315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 312150Z - 312315Z

SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING NWD ALONG FAR ERN NC.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 2135Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 65 SSE CRE. 
MEANWHILE BUOY DATA AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF
A WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF
THIS CIRCULATION NEWD BETWEEN SUT AND BUOY 41013.  CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING CONSIDERABLY TODAY...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR
AND TO THE SE OF THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG.

AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NNEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO SLOWLY PIVOT NWWD...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS
MOVING ONSHORE.  THIS DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /REF. MHX/LTX VWPS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
250-350 M2/S2/...INDICATES AN INCREASING THREAT OF SMALL SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 08/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

33727853 34347829 34987764 35467663 35787585 35677545
35307532 34527633 33907743 33587815 

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