[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 301657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301657 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-301900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NC...WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301657Z - 301900Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NC AND WRN SC
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
AND WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN WRN NC WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE VA-NC STATE-LINE AND SWWD ACROSS WRN SC INTO
NRN GA. DESTABILIZATION HAS QUICKLY OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN
NC AND NRN SC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IS MOVING NNEWD INTO
WRN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING IN SRN NC AND IN THE MTNS IN
WRN NC AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR DUE TO SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE WEAKENING CAP AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN
NC SHOW STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN IN THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35127646 34817785 34687994 34428061 33678149 34238258
34598272 35208240 36058153 36258046 36527818 36607689
36237632 

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