[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Aug 27 17:12:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 271714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271713 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-271915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR...S-CENTRAL/SERN
MO...NWRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271713Z - 271915Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR IS INCREASING FROM OZARKS TO LOWER OH
VALLEY...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW.

BAND OF TSTMS GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS WRN
OZARKS OF AR/MO.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
INTO DESTABILIZING AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT IDEAL FOR INTENSE COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN INFLOW LAYER WILL BOOST
BOTH BUOYANCY AND DCAPE...AND MAY AID POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
GUSTS. SFC TEMPS MID-80S/LOW-90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID
70S...WILL OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MLCAPE
2000-3000 J/KG AND SBCAPES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG IN SUPPORT OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AHEAD OF THIS BAND AS WELL...IN PRONOUNCED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  THIS BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
BMG...EVV...CGI...25 S TBN...SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING NEXT 3-4
HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS DISCRETE/MULTICELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT.  LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AMBIENT WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOWER
AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...KEEPING VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES SMALL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37339337 37569145 37868968 38478705 37718700 36908842
36669029 36459123 35379245 35409387 35369445 

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