[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 262248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262247 
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SRN WY...WRN AND CNTRL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751...

VALID 262247Z - 270015Z

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL
HELP STABILIZE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN POCKETS OF UNUSED
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS CO. PORTIONS OF THE WW IN ERN UT MAY BE
CLEARED EARLY...AS ADDITIONAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE
UNLIKELY.

NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SEVERE...HAVE GENERALLY
TRANSITIONED FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS INTO VARIOUS MULTICELLULAR BANDS
ACROSS THE WW. WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO. GJT VAD PROFILER HAS INDICATED
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS IS
COINCIDENT WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF ERN
UT. CONTINUED DRYING IN THE SRN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FURTHER STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF ERN UT.

E OF THE WW...SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL DEVELOPED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DENVER AND COLORADO
SPRINGS. THESE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER AROUND
I-70 IN FAR ERN ARAPAHOE AND ERN ELBERT COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED FURTHER E...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY.

..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

41560509 40390416 39830353 38800395 37730520 37210684
37070897 37681038 38511109 40191115 41121048 41610913
41790771 41850631 41750541 

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