[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 25 16:34:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 251636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251635 
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN
LM...NWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251635Z - 251830Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED...AND PERHAPS
INCREASE...AS PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER S-CENTRAL WI MOVE
SEWD INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS PRODUCED SUBSVR GUSTS OF 38 KT AT MSN...BUT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW POOL WILL
AID LIFT IN MODE OF SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.  REFLECTIVITY
LOOPS AND SFC WIND TRENDS INDICATE DIFFUSE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
MOVING SWD ACROSS PORTIONS RACINE/WALWORTH/JEFFERSON COUNTIES
WI...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MESOLOW ANALYZED OVER SWRN LM. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM CLUSTER AND ACT AS NRN
BOUND FOR MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.  BOUNDARY MAY REACH IL BORDER N ORD
BEFORE TSTMS ARRIVE...WHILE SRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY MAY
BACKBUILD/EXPAND SWD TOWARD I-90 IN NERN IL.

INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
SFC-BASED -- BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS AREAS
SURROUNDING SRN LM.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED
LAYER REACHES SFC FOR TEMPS 76-79 F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S...WHICH
ARE BEING OBSERVED ATTM OVER PORTIONS NERN IL. FURTHER HEATING OVER
PORTIONS N-CENTRAL IL AND NWRN INDIANA WILL BE TEMPERED BY AREAS OF
CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
CORRIDOR -- FROM IL/WI BORDER N RFD ESEWD ACROSS CHI AREA -- SHOULD
PERMIT TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO 80S WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ROTATION -- MANIFEST EITHER IN SUPERCELL OR BOW STRUCTURES.

..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...

43158880 42948786 41968607 41358572 40848617 41228769
42348916 42868947 

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