[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 25 15:03:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 251505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251505 
NYZ000-NJZ000-251700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251505Z - 251700Z

ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER NWRN-NRN PORTIONS NYC
AREA...ON S EDGE OF LARGER BAND OF NON SVR CONVECTION. THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN LONG
ISLAND AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND...SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL LONG ISLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.  HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
ABOUT 1730Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THREAT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NYC AREA
THEN EWD OVER LONG ISLAND.  FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD SLIGHTLY TOWARD LONG
ISLAND SOUND...BUT SHOULD MOVE LITTLE ELSEWHERE BECAUSE OF
REINFORCING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  STRENGTHENING STORMS
OVER NYC AREA APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED NEARLY SFC-BASED PARCELS ALONG
WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL LIFT AND VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. 12Z OKX RAOB NOT AVAILABLE...HOWEVER
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG FOR SFC TEMPS
MID 70S AND DEW POINTS MID 60S F.  VWP MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED JFK SFC
WINDS YIELDS 150 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH...MORE THAN RUC SOUNDING BUT
STILL CONSTRAINED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.  45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO
IS EVIDENT...FAVORING SOME STORM ROTATION.

..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...

40467378 40627389 40827402 40957372 41107277 41027180
40857176 

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