[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 25 07:25:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 250727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250727 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...CNTRL/SRN WI...NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 747...

VALID 250727Z - 250930Z

RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN IA AND
SWRN WI THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

07Z SFC-MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004 MB LOW OVER NWRN IA WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NWRN KS.  OUTFLOW ENHANCED FRONT EXTENDS EWD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS KDBQ TO KORD.  A 45 KT H925-H85 SWLY
LLJ...ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE SCALE WAVE OVER MN...WAS
IMPINGING ON THE FRONT.  ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION
WERE CENTERED OVER NERN IA AND SWRN WI WHERE STRONGEST TSTMS HAVE
BEEN THRIVING. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR
OF MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS STORMS BACKBUILD...THEN
TRACK ESEWD IN A TRAINING FASHION.

STRONGEST TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH
10Z.  THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION AFTER 09Z
AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE QUICKLY TRANSLATES TOWARD THE CNTRL
GRTLKS REGION. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A
GRADUAL SWD SHIFT TOWARD THE KDBQ AREA AND COULD EXPAND EWD THROUGH
SRN WI.  THOUGH ISOLD LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
FARTHER N...GENERALLY THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS
GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY STORMS FARTHER TO THE S.

..RACY.. 08/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

44639254 44408981 43648878 42898872 42668913 42569001
42459086 43119322 

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