[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 08:11:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240812 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-240945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NE IL...SW LOWER MI...NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737...

VALID 240812Z - 240945Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS
SRN WI AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SRN LOWER MI. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE TOTAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SRN MN AND SRN WI ESEWD ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI AND NW OH. THE MCS IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ERN
EDGE OF AN MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES
EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS ONGOING IN SW LOWER MI ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THE TWO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SHOW DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH
TIME AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS SOME LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

40958579 41838837 42619010 43139090 43879088 44188975
43798857 43168701 42068482 41298494 

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