[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 222121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222120 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-222315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NY/VT/NH/ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222120Z - 222315Z

...ISOLD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN/WRN NY THROUGH NH/VT AND ME...

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS REGION IS JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN
ONTARIO...AND THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE NEAR 35-40 KT PER RUC ANALYSIS AND AREA
VWP DATA. BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING GIVEN TIME OF DAY...AND A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..TAYLOR.. 08/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42847269 42657836 43467863 44907505 47446825 45116708
44206913 

WWWW