[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 22 20:51:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222051 
SDZ000-NDZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222051Z - 222215Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN
SD FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ACROSS SD...WITH THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN SD NWWD
INTO SWRN ND.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF ASCENT
AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN MT/WY. 
THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE
AIDING CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND
GENERALLY 45 W THROUGH 50 S OF BIS.  THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY-VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ ALONG/S OF WARM
FRONT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...WARM H7 TEMPERATURES AT 10-12 C PER 18Z BIS
SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.  DESPITE THIS
LIMITING FACTOR AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SRN ND/NRN
SD...THEN CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 08/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...

45760165 46280209 46880179 46840009 45369837 44589833
44349963 45250102 

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