[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161938 
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-162145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ORE/FAR SOUTHEAST WA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ID INTO WESTERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161938Z - 162145Z

POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...NAMELY FROM FAR
NORTHEAST ORE INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND FAR WESTERN MT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING EASTWARD
OVER THE WA/ORE CASCADES...WITH DISTINCT DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER JET
STREAK EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
SIMILAR TO TRENDS OF INCREASING TOWERING CU/CBS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY...BROAD/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE
INSOLATION WILL FAVOR A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN ORE
INTO CENTRAL ID AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN MT.

SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM BOISE CAPTURES THE MARGINALLY-MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALREADY AROUND 1000 J/KG. AMBIENT FLOW
FIELDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ATOP A WELL-MIXED LAYER
FAVORABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT AMIDST RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..GUYER.. 08/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

44731837 46081747 48781613 48311281 46931073 45231100
43731425 43741791 

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