[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161927 
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161927Z - 162130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM PARTS OF ERN ND SWD INTO CNTRL SD NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THESE AREAS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL ND SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL SD. MOIST AXIS HAS ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SURFACE
HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL SD
AND LESS THAN 1500 J/KG FARTHER N INTO ND WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN
MORE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING
ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF ND PORTION OF BOUNDARY WHERE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ADVANCING EWD. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR DEVILS
LAKE IN ND. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KT IN THIS
REGION IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. FARTHER SW IN SD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER.
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL SD WHERE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST MINIMAL CAP REMAINS.

..DIAL.. 08/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46979666 43759957 43150138 46049969 48619873 48509699 

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