[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141812 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-141945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...NRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141812Z - 141945Z

SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH LARGE HAIL
LIKELY AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
SOON.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING WITH LARGEST TOWERS OVER
THE FRONT RANGE WHERE CIN HAS ERODED. CONTINUED HEATING WILL ERODE
CIN FARTHER E...ALLOWING ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE MTNS TO SURVIVE
AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY EWD. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS THERMODYNAMICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WLY FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.

..JEWELL.. 08/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

39420570 42410587 43570477 44020357 43980222 43190163
39960299 

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