[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 120338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120338 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...NE ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120338Z - 120515Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS MOVING INTO NE SD AND NE ND ATTM. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ND AND SD MOVING
INTO A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE NRN MCS IN NRN ND IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A
STRONG BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS GOING INTO NE ND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. THE SRN MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NE
SD. THE TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

44899971 46369996 48249990 48809940 48909796 48519719
47289691 45649698 44649710 44449880 

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