[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 12 03:01:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120301 
NEZ000-SDZ000-120430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120301Z - 120430Z

A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST ACROSS NE NEB 
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD IN INTENSITY AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR O'NEILL NEB IS
VERY NEAR AN INSTABILITY MAX ACROSS NRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE MCS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD TOWARD
NORFOLK NEB LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK
ACROSS ERN NEB AND THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF STORM
INTENSITY IN THE MCS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41349711 41369814 41849875 42399869 42779827 42849742
42639678 41889640 

WWWW