[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Aug 7 01:08:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 070106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070105 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB/NRN MO/SRN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070105Z - 070230Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE
VALUES...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS INTO
NRN MO...AND POTENTIALLY FAR SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB/NORTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS FEATURE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STRONGER WLY MID
LEVEL WINDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA THIS EVENING. 
STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDED FROM FAR ERN IA SWWD INTO NRN/NWRN MO AND THEN GENERALLY
WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  THE SE AND S MOVEMENT OF THE FAR NWRN MO
AND KS PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH ARE BEING ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TROUGH.  GIVEN THAT STORMS ARE
HIGH BASED WITH 30-40 SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...ISOLATED
STRONG DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
SURFACE BASED INHIBITION...AND THUS DECREASE OVERALL SEVERE WIND
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 08/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

41599066 40119045 39299157 39029356 38909501 38809596
39659637 40269610 40829534 41239332 

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