[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 060752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060751 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 060751Z - 060915Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST WITH ONGOING STORM COMPLEX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE 
MONITORED. 

RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT SMALL TSTM COMPLEX
FROM ST. CROIX COUNTY WI SWWD RICE COUNTY MN HAS INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO WHILE MOVING 270/30-35 KTS.  THESE STORMS
ARE WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 30-40 KT SWLY
LLJ LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY.  

PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS /SRN
MN INTO NRN IA/ REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF
2500-3500 J/KG/...WITH STORMS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ROOTED IN
THE .5 TO 1 KM AGL LAYER.  GIVEN THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER
WRN/CNTRL WI BECOMES LESS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH
OCCUR...THOUGH MAIN INFLOW SOURCE REGION WILL REMAIN TO THE SW.

ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD INTO W-CNTRL WI...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS LIKELY INTENSIFYING OVER NERN IA INTO SWRN WI.  THOUGH A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..MEAD.. 08/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

43859322 44289350 44949328 45349267 45509135 45329011
44498994 43499019 43309149 

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