[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 5 22:34:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 052235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052235 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/WRN KS/PARTS OF SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052235Z - 060000Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS INTO SWRN-CENTRAL NEB.
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED THREAT AND PULSE-TYPE STORM
MODE.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND WRN EXTENT OF
GREATER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ HAS
RESULTED IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION.  HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE TENDING TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
ASCENT AHEAD OF ONE OR TWO WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING NWD WITHIN
MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH.  GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PULSE WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 08/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

40899950 39330016 37750167 37050284 37010386 37790369
38350257 39490137 40720078 41040024 

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