[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040135 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NRN-CENTRAL NJ TO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684...

VALID 040135Z - 040200Z

WW 684 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.

A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL-SERN PA INTO CENTRAL NJ.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NJ/SERN PA...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE NJ COAST AT 50 E
NEL TO APPROXIMATELY 30 SE CXY.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO NJ ARE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS YET THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN LOSS OF
INSOLATION AND THUS INCREASING SURFACE BASED CINH...WILL ALLOW WW
684 TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.

..PETERS.. 08/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

40377392 39937518 40237607 40577613 40927592 41237513
41307391 41527302 41597181 41497107 41137068 40637081
40227330 

WWWW