[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 18:47:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031847 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-032045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN VA...NERN TN AND WRN/CENTRAL NC

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 031847Z - 032045Z

SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SCENTRAL VA. OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT VWP DATA FROM MORRISTOWN TN AND JACKSON KY INDICATE THAT
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KTS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN RECENT NAM/RUC GUIDANCE VALUES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF
THE LOW-MID LEVEL PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERAL
MODESTLY ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN AND OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE DEVELOPING TSTM LINES WAS
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATING UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD...IT
WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED HIGH LEVEL SSELY FLOW. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT WWD MOVING ANVILS AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE LINES. THEREFORE DESPITE THE MARGINAL WIND
FIELDS...THERE SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

37527933 37648048 37378140 37248211 36658262 36308284
35498171 35318051 35267975 35527843 35687805 35807778
36777790 37007813 

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