[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031758 
FLZ000-032000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 031758Z - 032000Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND
THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED HIGHER SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR FOR
A BRIEF TIME AS THE TWO CONVECTIVE LINES/OUTFLOWS MERGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 60 NM EAST OF MIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MODERATE NLY
UPPER FLOW /20-30 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM TOP VENTILATION. IN
ADDITION ...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED BY -9 DEG C MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CORE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT GREATER
UPDRAFT STRENGTH. RELATIVELY DEEP ELY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
THE PROPAGATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WELL INLAND
THROUGH SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS SEA
BREEZE FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER ERN LEE/WRN HENDRY...COLLIER
AND NRN MONROE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
SHEAR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DMGG WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

25978028 26978023 27418069 27468129 27328186 27008200
26478190 26128162 25938145 25508101 25588066 

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