[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 00:48:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 030050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030049 
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL NY AND VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671...

VALID 030049Z - 030115Z

NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR NRN/PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND VT.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEVELOPED BOW ECHO OVER SERN
ONTARIO MOVING EWD AT 60 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IN ONTARIO REPORTING WINDS AOA 50 KT WITH THIS BOW.  ADDITIONAL
STRONG AND MORE DISCRETE STORMS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW WERE LOCATED
40-50 MILES WNW OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.  MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LEAD ACTIVITY AND THE BOW...IS
EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AS WSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO 45-50 KT INTO NRN NY BY 06-09Z PER 21Z RUC/18Z NAM. 
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST INTO ERN NY AND VT MAY LIMIT THE
EWD SEVERE THREAT...BUT GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF BOW WILL PLAN TO
EXTEND NEW WW INTO PARTS OF VT.

..PETERS.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

45087164 43247241 43087343 43237629 43387715 44987583
45147354 

WWWW