[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 23:24:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 022326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022325 
NDZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022325Z - 030130Z

ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING /AROUND 02Z/. NO
WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER....MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30-35 KTS/ AND MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS BEFORE WEAKENING TRENDS ENSUE AROUND 02Z.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48940192 48510225 48050190 47990059 48059887 48219817
48519793 48949813 49009859 

WWWW