[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022309 
OKZ000-TXZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...NERN TX AND ERN OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022309Z - 030115Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/MARGINAL ENOUGH
THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE.
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA WAS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/. THUS ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY POSE
A THREAT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER
WITH WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH TIME...THE OVERALL
THREAT IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

36950082 36480155 35530166 35220130 35210070 35799921
36639873 36939879 

WWWW