[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021818 COR
MIZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670...

VALID 021818Z - 021945Z

CORRECTED DISCUSSION

CONTINUE WW.

MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION.  INLAND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL
APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS
NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..KERR.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628
44968627 

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