[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021544 
NYZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN NEW YORK STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021544Z - 021745Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A WW THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA BAY AREA APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING CREST OF EASTERN U.S.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH
OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE
IS ALREADY UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF INHIBITION
ONGOING.  THUS...AN EXPANDING/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN SEASONABLY STRONG MEAN FLOW
ENVIRONMENT ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  THIS
COLD POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z

..KERR.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43247868 43057724 43347566 44087419 44947438 45137650
44887799 44668038 43848088 

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