[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 020248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020247 
MIZ000-020445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN LOWER MI...NWRN LH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020247Z - 020445Z

NARROW MCS IS EVOLVING FROM RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND SEGMENTED
CONVECTIVE MODES...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS
W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL/NERN PORTIONS LOWER MI...THEN OVER
ADJACENT LH WATERS.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS --
CAPABLE OF DMG TO WEAK STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION.  WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BOW/LEWP SHAPED SEGMENTS WHEE
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE GUSTS IS MOST PROBABLE. 
LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE SFC WITH
WEAK SPEED SHEAR.  HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND
VECTOR WILL REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO ANY ACTIVITY ORIENTED NEARLY
N-S...SUCH AS THAT APCHG I-75 CORRIDOR N HTL AS OF 220Z.  MODIFIED
APX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS 2500-3000 MUCAPE BUT MLCAPES
DROPPING UNDER 1000 J/KG...AS SBCINH INCREASES.  THERMODYAMICS ABOVE
SFC WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH PRONOUNCED MOIST AXES EVIDENT
ACROSS LOWER MI IN 00Z 925...850 AND 700 MB RAOB CHARTS.  ALTHOUGH
BOTTOM PORTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SFC AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY
STABILIZING FROM DIABATIC COOLING...STABLE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AT OR VERY NEARLY SFC-BASED. 
THIS MAY PERMIT GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SVR CRITERIA -- BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
MINOR DMG -- TO PENETRATE TO SFC IN MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

43668652 44308623 44588554 44898518 45108529 45278492
45438477 45648468 45718327 45128271 44458328 43848478
43428608 

WWWW