[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 1 23:48:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 012350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012348 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN MAINE...EXTREME NRN PORTIONS
NH/VT.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012348Z - 020215Z

SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION
AS TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION AFFECT AREA.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ACTIVITY
THAT HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY JUST N OF QUE BORDER...MOVING SEWD INTO
PORTIONS FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES MAINE.  TSTMS ARE
FORMING/STRENGTHENING ALONG AND NE OF SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED AT
23Z FROM NEAR PWM NNWWD ACROSS NERN CORNER MAINE TO VICINITY
MONTREAL.  VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS EVIDENT ALONG AND W OF
FRONT...WITH SFC TEMPS 80S F AND DEW POINTS 70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPES
2500-3500 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH SBCAPE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY NEWD FROM
FRONT...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER STILL MAY
REACH SFC...AND THAT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND TO GROUND
LEVEL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEARS COMMONLY 50-60 KT.

UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN QUE...ARE FCST TO
MOVE SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 6Z.  ASSOCIATED ASCENT IS
SUPPORTING GROWING MCS NOW ANCHORED ABOUT 70-80 NM N OF NY/QUE
BORDER AND EXTENDING NEWD FROM THERE.  FCST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF INFLOW LAYER ACROSS SERN QUE AND NRN VT/NH/MAINE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD AND REACH THOSE AREAS AS
WELL...BEGINNING AS SOON AS ABOUT 3Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD REMAN FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS IN SUPPORT OF SVR
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...WHAT MAY BE EVEN BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO NRN MAINE.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

47446904 46826907 46046872 45026924 44397111 44997347
45067149 45247147 45307129 45257114 45367102 45207086
45457081 45427066 45647070 45767039 46137026 46217031
46447005 46697002 47486917 

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