[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 1 20:22:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 012022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012021 
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR HUDSON VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665...

VALID 012021Z - 012145Z

CONTINUE WW.

CAP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED PAST FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...BUT WEAKNESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE WIDELY
SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING.  THIS INCLUDES
EVOLVING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL NOW
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  THROUGH
21-23Z...SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW CONFIGURATION SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA.  FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT
FURTHER GROWTH OF CLUSTER.  AND...GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...
DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
EXPANDING SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT.

..KERR.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

42607424 42877327 42667290 41927260 40867289 40757320
40527361 40597415 40817460 41347498 42137466 

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