[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010659 
NYZ000-011000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 010659Z - 011000Z

A PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ERN
ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BORDER SSEWD INTO NERN ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY.  TRAINING OF CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND INDICATES THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WET MICROBURST TO OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS. A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RADAR/IR SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A NNW/SSE ORIENTED BAND
OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITING COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST WITH GPS
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.75-2.0 INCH RANGE
WHICH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR...AND RADAR
ALGORITHMS INDICATE PRECIPITATION RATES EXCEEDING 1.0-1.5 INCHES/HR
WITHIN THE BAND ENTERING THE U.S. OVER EXTREME NERN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NEAR MSS.  DEEP LAYER WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGESTING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SSEWD INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..WEISS.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...

44097464 44457511 44777534 44967482 44977408 44517388
44097391 44097424 

WWWW