[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010147 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-010315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN/N-CENTRAL MN...WRN LS...NRN WI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664...

VALID 010147Z - 010315Z

BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS WW AREA.  ALTHOUGH SVR STILL MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS...RISK SHOULD DIMINISH SUCH THAT ANOTHER WW PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE NECESSARY.  CURRENT WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND.

GUST FRONT HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MN ARROWHEAD AND
ADJACENT LS WATERS...AND GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY STABLE LAKE AIR AND OUTFLOW TO ITS S. 
HOWEVER...SOME THREAT WILL LINGER OVER SWRN PORTIONS WW AND EWD OVER
ADJACENT AREAS NWRN WI...MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MRGL SVR HAIL
POSSIBLE.  SFC AIR MASS S OF LS HAS BEGUN TO COOL FROM LOSS OF
INSOLATION...BUT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND WELL-MIXED LAYER
WILL PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS JUST OFF SFC.  NEAR-SFC STABILIZATION
SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO
REACH SFC WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRENGTH.  STILL...OVERALL SVR
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING...AND
TRANSITION TOWARD ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL AND GUSTS...AS SBCINH INCREASES
ALONG WITH DEPTH OF STABLE LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...

45749451 46569288 47799010 47408943 46569025 45749125
45429277 45229433 

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