From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 01:47:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 21:47:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010147 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-010315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0847 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN/N-CENTRAL MN...WRN LS...NRN WI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 010147Z - 010315Z BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS WW AREA. ALTHOUGH SVR STILL MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...RISK SHOULD DIMINISH SUCH THAT ANOTHER WW PROBABLY WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. CURRENT WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. GUST FRONT HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MN ARROWHEAD AND ADJACENT LS WATERS...AND GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY STABLE LAKE AIR AND OUTFLOW TO ITS S. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT WILL LINGER OVER SWRN PORTIONS WW AND EWD OVER ADJACENT AREAS NWRN WI...MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MRGL SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. SFC AIR MASS S OF LS HAS BEGUN TO COOL FROM LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND WELL-MIXED LAYER WILL PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS JUST OFF SFC. NEAR-SFC STABILIZATION SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRENGTH. STILL...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING...AND TRANSITION TOWARD ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL AND GUSTS...AS SBCINH INCREASES ALONG WITH DEPTH OF STABLE LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX... 45749451 46569288 47799010 47408943 46569025 45749125 45429277 45229433 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 03:13:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 23:13:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010313 NYZ000-010445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010313Z - 010445Z SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN ONT...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO MCS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. EARLIER/DIURNALLY AIDED ACTIVITY OVER SERN ONT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO WEAKER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS NRN NY. APPARENT SUPERCELL OVER SERN ONT MAY CROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER WITHIN NEXT HOUR INTO PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE/JEFFERSON COUNTIES AND MAY HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR ON AMERICAN SIDE OF BORDER THAN PRIOR ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER NW ALSO SHOULD PERSIST INTO NRN NY THEREAFTER. INCREASING AND SLGTLY VEERING LLJ...CONCURRENT WITH DECOUPLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER...WILL ADVECT MORE ROBUST MOISTURE FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONT INTO THIS REGION 1-3 KM AGL...BASED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND RUC/850 MB MOISTURE PROGS. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED BUF RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL COUNTERACT MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED -- I.E. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MOST PROBABLE CONVECTIVE TRACK APPEARS TO EXTEND SEWD ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TOWARD UCA-ALB AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44987494 43727384 42947360 42837459 43237550 44207640 44347591 44757546 44987502 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 06:59:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 02:59:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010659 NYZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 010659Z - 011000Z A PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BORDER SSEWD INTO NERN ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY. TRAINING OF CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND INDICATES THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WET MICROBURST TO OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RADAR/IR SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A NNW/SSE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITING COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST WITH GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.75-2.0 INCH RANGE WHICH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR...AND RADAR ALGORITHMS INDICATE PRECIPITATION RATES EXCEEDING 1.0-1.5 INCHES/HR WITHIN THE BAND ENTERING THE U.S. OVER EXTREME NERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NEAR MSS. DEEP LAYER WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGESTING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..WEISS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY... 44097464 44457511 44777534 44967482 44977408 44517388 44097391 44097424 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 10:02:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 06:02:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011003 VTZ000-NYZ000-011300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/EAST CENTRAL NY...SRN/WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 011003Z - 011300Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME EXTENDING FROM NERN INTO EAST CENTRAL NY...AS LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER WNWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WARM FRONT. GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER THIS REGION INDICATING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED GENERATION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...NEW CELLS ARE REDEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NRN FRANKLIN CNTY WHICH IS INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF REPEAT HEAVY RAINS SPREADING SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE FROM SRN ST LAWRENCE ACROSS EXTREME SRN FRANKLIN INTO SRN ESSEX CNTY MOVING SSEWD AT 25-30 KT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS /G35KT REPORTED AT SLK AT 0911Z/ INTO NRN PARTS OF HAMILTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..WEISS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY... 44067457 44617473 45027451 45017408 44657361 43847275 43157269 42847316 42767401 43447459 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 17:05:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 13:05:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011706 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-011900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...PARTS OF NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011706Z - 011900Z AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA BY AROUND 21Z. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WEST OF RETREATING/ERODING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IS VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. AND...UNINHIBITED INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY STRONGER CAP BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAKER CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DEEPENING/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE SHEARED REGIME BENEATH 30-35 NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ..KERR.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 44517388 44297288 43877270 43027253 42907176 41927122 41327207 40667377 40457446 40937545 41687507 41987467 42567430 43627424 44027415 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 17:40:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 13:40:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011741 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-011945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011741Z - 011945Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND APPROACH AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z...WHEN A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT/RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL /MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY ALREADY BE INITIATING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND MAY NOT AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NEW DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT COULD SPREAD INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/WEST OF OUTFLOW IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV... 46757950 47827693 47417381 46047059 45357024 44537047 44277107 44317208 44437271 44687343 45117443 45837695 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 18:41:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 14:41:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011842 MIZ000-WIZ000-012045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011842Z - 012045Z ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI WILL LIKELY BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE NEXT HR. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN WI IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI /NEAR APN TO JUST SOUTH OF TVC/. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI /JUST NORTH OF THE DELLS/. THE AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MARGINAL /20-25 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZED LINEAR WIND DMGG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF MCV OVER NRN IA MAY AID IN FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO CENTRAL/ECENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEREFORE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. IF PRIOR TO 20Z...A WW WOULD BE ISSUED BY AFWA /AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY/. ..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX... 45238386 44758658 44589037 43949047 43199030 43018912 43628632 44298373 44658292 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 19:49:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 15:49:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011948 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011948Z - 012145Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR A WW BEFORE 22Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SFC LOW CENTER NEAR LEXINGTON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NCENTRAL KS AND NEWD INTO FAR NWRN IA/SERN SD. HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT /95-100 DEG F/ HAS SUPPORTED DECREASING CINH OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENT BY THE MDT CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OTHER RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD OVERCOME THE REMAINING CINH AND SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /INITIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/ IN THE NEXT 1-3 FEW HRS. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 25-35 KT LOW-MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 42039853 41689935 41130017 40340023 39999955 40469817 41299690 41719606 42059556 42489560 42849581 42949639 42549765 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 20:22:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 16:22:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012021 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR HUDSON VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665... VALID 012021Z - 012145Z CONTINUE WW. CAP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...BUT WEAKNESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. THIS INCLUDES EVOLVING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL NOW PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THROUGH 21-23Z...SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW CONFIGURATION SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT FURTHER GROWTH OF CLUSTER. AND...GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES... DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPANDING SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT. ..KERR.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 42607424 42877327 42667290 41927260 40867289 40757320 40527361 40597415 40817460 41347498 42137466 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 23:48:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 19:48:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012348 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN MAINE...EXTREME NRN PORTIONS NH/VT. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012348Z - 020215Z SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION AFFECT AREA. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY JUST N OF QUE BORDER...MOVING SEWD INTO PORTIONS FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES MAINE. TSTMS ARE FORMING/STRENGTHENING ALONG AND NE OF SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM NEAR PWM NNWWD ACROSS NERN CORNER MAINE TO VICINITY MONTREAL. VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS EVIDENT ALONG AND W OF FRONT...WITH SFC TEMPS 80S F AND DEW POINTS 70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY NEWD FROM FRONT...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER STILL MAY REACH SFC...AND THAT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND TO GROUND LEVEL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS COMMONLY 50-60 KT. UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN QUE...ARE FCST TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 6Z. ASSOCIATED ASCENT IS SUPPORTING GROWING MCS NOW ANCHORED ABOUT 70-80 NM N OF NY/QUE BORDER AND EXTENDING NEWD FROM THERE. FCST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF INFLOW LAYER ACROSS SERN QUE AND NRN VT/NH/MAINE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD AND REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL...BEGINNING AS SOON AS ABOUT 3Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAN FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS IN SUPPORT OF SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...WHAT MAY BE EVEN BETTER ORGANIZED THAN TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO NRN MAINE. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 47446904 46826907 46046872 45026924 44397111 44997347 45067149 45247147 45307129 45257114 45367102 45207086 45457081 45427066 45647070 45767039 46137026 46217031 46447005 46697002 47486917 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 00:00:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 20:00:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020000 NYZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY...LONG ISLAND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665... VALID 020000Z - 020100Z CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION WAS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC HEATING SW OF NEW ENGLAND SFC WARM FRONT. LAST FEW REMAINING TSTMS ACROSS REGION HAVE PRODUCED GUST FRONTS THAT SURGED WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH PARENT CELLS DISSIPATING. AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE...PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MARKEDLY. THEREFORE REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 1Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX... 40487370 40687384 40987362 41007279 40827243 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 00:17:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 20:17:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020017 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NEB...WRN/NRN IA...FAR SERN SD AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666... VALID 020017Z - 020215Z CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA /ERN PORTIONS OF WW 666/ OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SVR THREAT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REMAINDER OF NRN IA/SRN MN. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA MOVING NEWD AROUND 30 KTS SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL JET /30-35 KTS PER REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REMAINDER OF NRN IA INTO SCENTRAL MN WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING THE DMGG WIND THREAT MAY THEREFORE REMAIN MOSTLY MARGINAL AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF WW 666. ANOTHER WW EAST OF WW 666 IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET THE WEAKER LAPSE RATES GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY/WIND FIELDS. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT EAST OF WW 666...STORM MOTIONS/BNDRY ORIENTATION ALONG WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL OVER SRN MN/NRN IA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41729960 39879963 41859573 42499377 42609163 43629092 44179141 44159497 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 02:47:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 22:47:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020247 MIZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN LOWER MI...NWRN LH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020247Z - 020445Z NARROW MCS IS EVOLVING FROM RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND SEGMENTED CONVECTIVE MODES...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL/NERN PORTIONS LOWER MI...THEN OVER ADJACENT LH WATERS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS -- CAPABLE OF DMG TO WEAK STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BOW/LEWP SHAPED SEGMENTS WHEE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE GUSTS IS MOST PROBABLE. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE SFC WITH WEAK SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO ANY ACTIVITY ORIENTED NEARLY N-S...SUCH AS THAT APCHG I-75 CORRIDOR N HTL AS OF 220Z. MODIFIED APX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS 2500-3000 MUCAPE BUT MLCAPES DROPPING UNDER 1000 J/KG...AS SBCINH INCREASES. THERMODYAMICS ABOVE SFC WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH PRONOUNCED MOIST AXES EVIDENT ACROSS LOWER MI IN 00Z 925...850 AND 700 MB RAOB CHARTS. ALTHOUGH BOTTOM PORTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SFC AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY STABILIZING FROM DIABATIC COOLING...STABLE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW WITH EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AT OR VERY NEARLY SFC-BASED. THIS MAY PERMIT GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SVR CRITERIA -- BUT SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR DMG -- TO PENETRATE TO SFC IN MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 43668652 44308623 44588554 44898518 45108529 45278492 45438477 45648468 45718327 45128271 44458328 43848478 43428608 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 04:10:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:10:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020411 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MAINE...NRN NH...NRN VT. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668... VALID 020411Z - 020545Z NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL WEAKENING TENDENCY IS UNDERWAY. OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE REMAINING PORTION OF MCS -- MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS REGION FROM ERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY SWWD TOWARD AUG. FARTHER SE THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO AREA OF STRONGER STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER MARINE LAYER. FARTHER W...ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH OVERALL SVR THREAT RATHER ISOLATED/MRGL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH WRN MAINE...AND ALL BUT SRN PORTIONS VT/NH. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD ATOP OUTFLOW AIR MASS WITH ASSOCIATED MITIGATION OF SVR WIND POTENTIAL. WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM NW-SE BEHIND PRIMARY MCS ACROSS MOST OF MAIN AND NH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AS ANTICIPATED...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 6Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44737258 44477115 44956969 46256821 47076780 45666783 45586736 45176743 45166714 44806694 44376809 43786994 43607021 42887082 42767109 42787136 43177191 43337324 43787335 43747403 44067433 44447389 45007400 45007339 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 04:51:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:51:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020451 IAZ000-020545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN IA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 667... VALID 020451Z - 020545Z BULK OF MCS HAS MOVED THROUGH WW WITH OCCASIONAL SVR GUSTS MEASURED AND SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND REPORTS. THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALONG SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN WW FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...AND SWD TO AREAS NW OF A ALO-DSM LINE THROUGH AROUND 8Z. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND FAVORABLY BUOYANT...ESPECIALLY FOR PARCELS ROOTED ABOVE SFC...I.E. ELEVATED MUCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GUST FRONTS CONTINUE TO SURGE AHEAD OS STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES...AND DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY STATICALLY STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. THEREFORE EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC. WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELED BEHIND BULK OF MCS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN IA...BEFORE SCHEDULED 6Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX... 41929503 43329427 43469208 42709227 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 06:16:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 02:16:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020616 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020616Z - 020815Z TWO BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING ENEWD 45-50 KT ACROSS NERN IA AND WRN WI. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING ALONG/JUST NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER...RAPID STORM MOTION AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..WEISS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43148749 42908951 42559107 42589217 43049244 43419205 43789073 43938918 44148758 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 09:58:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 05:58:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020959 MIZ000-021200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020959Z - 021200Z RAPIDLY MOVING LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 12Z. MARGINAL HAIL AND POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A BOWING SEGMENT MOVING EWD AT GREATER THAN 50 KT APPROACHING LEELANAU COUNTRY IN NWRN LOWER MI. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER...AND WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THE IMPACT OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BOWING SEGMENT PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS ACROSS LEELANAU CNTY AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY BY 10Z... CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM AND OTSEGO/SRN CHEBOYGAN CNTYS BY 11Z...AND MONTMORENCY/PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA CNTYS BEFORE 12Z. ..WEISS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 45138577 45468532 45598460 45598359 45268292 44728293 44338428 44288622 44348651 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 12:19:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 08:19:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021220 MIZ000-021345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...LAKE HURON CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 021220Z - 021345Z BOWING THUNDERSTORM LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 50 KT ACROSS NERN LOWER MI INTO NRN LAKE HURON. ALTHOUGH RADAR/IR SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...RAPID EWD TRANSLATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE INTO LAKE HURON. COUNTIES MAY BE REMOVED FROM THE WW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE...AND ENTIRE WW MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 14Z GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE LINE. ..WEISS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 44178430 44498422 44888357 45368335 45658353 45678330 45348251 44168224 44188325 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 15:00:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 11:00:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021501 MIZ000-021630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021501Z - 021630Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG WINDS IS ACCOMPANYING UPPER IMPULSE MIGRATING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH 50+ KT FLOW EVIDENT IN VAD WIND DATA AS LOW AS 3 KM AGL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDDAY...WHEN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HOUGHTON LAKE BY 17-18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL IN PROCESS OF RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS BASED IN DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ARE LIKELY. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...BEFORE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44058374 43988463 43908547 44068613 44548608 45218497 45398436 45298329 44608273 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 15:43:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 11:43:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021544 NYZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN NEW YORK STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021544Z - 021745Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA BAY AREA APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING CREST OF EASTERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF INHIBITION ONGOING. THUS...AN EXPANDING/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN SEASONABLY STRONG MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS COLD POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43247868 43057724 43347566 44087419 44947438 45137650 44887799 44668038 43848088 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 17:42:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 13:42:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021742 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA...SRN WI/FAR NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021742Z - 021945Z ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IA ENEWD INTO SRN WI. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC WSWWD TO NEAR DBQ TO NEAR DSM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL HEATING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA. HOWEVER MODERATE CONVERGENCE /STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER NWRN IA/ MAY SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK CINH. FURTHER EAST...MUCH GREATER HEATING AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN SRN WI SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 20Z. OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /45-50 KTS/ WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES AND/OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44048773 43358921 42679116 42529204 41989322 41649320 41479291 41469275 41499170 41649029 42068926 42598842 43008793 43168776 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:08:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:08:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021809 MIZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 021809Z - 021945Z CONTINUE WW. MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION. INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628 44968627 AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. FURTHER NE...COPIOUS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CINH REMOVAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 21Z ALONG THE FRONT IN NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA ALSO SUPPORTING SOME DMGG WIND POTENTIAL IF STORMS DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39429848 38849985 38160035 37940025 37759925 38139814 38739699 39159594 39949429 40489435 40969467 40889536 40199646 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:15:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:15:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021816 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-022015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN KS...FAR SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021816Z - 022015Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT HR...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO NCENTRAL KS BEFORE 20Z. FURTHER NE OVER FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LATER /AFTER 21Z/. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 20Z. LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN KS /NEAR DDC/. TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE EXISTS VERY LITTLE CINH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/NCENTRAL KS. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DDC TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO NCENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KTS FROM 2-6 KM PER PROFILER DATA/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. FURTHER NE...COPIOUS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CINH REMOVAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 21Z ALONG THE FRONT IN NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA ALSO SUPPORTING SOME DMGG WIND POTENTIAL IF STORMS DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40919456 40579552 39789717 39149942 38280035 37930031 37770003 37779986 37849886 38059751 38749618 39109577 39819446 40619409 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:16:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:16:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021817 MIZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 021817Z - 021945Z CONTINUE WW. MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION. INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628 44968627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:17:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:17:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021818 COR MIZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 021818Z - 021945Z CORRECTED DISCUSSION CONTINUE WW. MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION. INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628 44968627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 19:02:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 15:02:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021903 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-022030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 021903Z - 022030Z CONTINUE WW 671 AND WW 672. MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL THAT WHICH DEVELOPED IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OFF THE ADIRONDACKS IN PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-22Z... SOUTHEASTWARD INTO HOT MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE 20 TO 30 KT LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ROUNDING UPPER RIDGE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND COULD SUPPORT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43637989 43417749 43517587 43647425 44707299 45587288 45587117 44546865 43986925 42957069 41967175 41697368 42527557 43087985 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 21:52:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 17:52:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022153 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN MA/RI/PARTS OF CENTRAL-ERN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 022153Z - 022300Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD INTO NRN RI INCLUDING PROVIDENCE BY 22Z AND INTO PARTS OF THE BOSTON METRO... MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN METRO AND SWD THROUGH SERN MA BETWEEN 22-23Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN/SRN WORCESTER COUNTY MA...MOVING TO THE SE AT 30-35 KT. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE INTO SERN MA/RI AND CT IS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG. THIS AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 42097292 42137225 42497169 42697130 42597094 42386985 41827024 41487102 41597198 41677290 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 22:12:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 18:12:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022213 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... VALID 022213Z - 030015Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS /674/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO ECENTRAL/NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z FOR THE AREA. A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL KS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE SVR THREAT OUT OF WW 674 AND INTO ECENTRAL/NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB AROUND 00Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER GIVEN RECENT SAT/RADAR TRENDS OF MDT-TOWERING CU AND SMALL ECHOES OVER NERN KS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW /25-30 KTS/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO NWRN MO AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN IA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40429570 40019737 39639788 38919834 38509877 37209916 37069808 37979553 38939404 39539289 40279224 40919294 40969424 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 22:51:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 18:51:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022252 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... VALID 022252Z - 030045Z SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI /WW 673/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH DMGG WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 673 MAY BE NECESSARY BY 01Z. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ BNDRY EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES TO THE NRN CHICAGO METRO AREA ENEWD TO FLINT MI. AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 673 INTO NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING/CONVERGENCE AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF WW 673. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30-35 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL FLOW /PER RECENT PROFILER/VWP DATA/ AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT OVER NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43738976 43609071 42259082 41639018 41438904 41598736 41858495 42248339 42888265 43488224 44248243 44558357 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 23:08:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 19:08:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022309 OKZ000-TXZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...NERN TX AND ERN OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022309Z - 030115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA WAS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/. THUS ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER WITH WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH TIME...THE OVERALL THREAT IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 36950082 36480155 35530166 35220130 35210070 35799921 36639873 36939879 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 23:24:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 19:24:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022325 NDZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022325Z - 030130Z ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING /AROUND 02Z/. NO WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER....MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30-35 KTS/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BEFORE WEAKENING TRENDS ENSUE AROUND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48940192 48510225 48050190 47990059 48059887 48219817 48519793 48949813 49009859 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 23:29:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 19:29:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022330 MEZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672... VALID 022330Z - 030030Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ME. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE /35-45 MILES FROM THE ME COAST/...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL ME. AIR MASS ALONG AND OFF THE COAST REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHILE INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF ME...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ALSO...2.5 KM AGL WLY WIND OF 40-50 KT AT GRAY MAINE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...BEFORE ACTIVITY UNDERGOES FURTHER WEAKENING AS AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 42807077 43597008 44376978 45707035 46046994 45846841 45286801 44336796 43076824 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 00:48:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 20:48:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030049 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL NY AND VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 030049Z - 030115Z NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR NRN/PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND VT. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEVELOPED BOW ECHO OVER SERN ONTARIO MOVING EWD AT 60 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN ONTARIO REPORTING WINDS AOA 50 KT WITH THIS BOW. ADDITIONAL STRONG AND MORE DISCRETE STORMS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW WERE LOCATED 40-50 MILES WNW OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LEAD ACTIVITY AND THE BOW...IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AS WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 45-50 KT INTO NRN NY BY 06-09Z PER 21Z RUC/18Z NAM. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST INTO ERN NY AND VT MAY LIMIT THE EWD SEVERE THREAT...BUT GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF BOW WILL PLAN TO EXTEND NEW WW INTO PARTS OF VT. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 45087164 43247241 43087343 43237629 43387715 44987583 45147354 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 00:52:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 20:52:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030053 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...NRN MO AND SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...675... VALID 030053Z - 030300Z THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL END ACROSS WW 674 WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO...ACROSS NERN AND SCENTRAL KS. THUS WW 674 SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR NERN KS/SERN NEB WILL MOVE ENEWD FROM 30-35 KTS INT0 FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH A CONTINUED PRIMARILY DMGG WIND THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES /3-4 MB PER 2 HR/ BEHIND A WELL ORGANIZED OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB. A COMPARISON OF THE 00Z TOP AND DVN SOUNDING REVEALS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE. GIVEN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THIS REGION AND SUPPORT OF COLD POOL AND INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...CONVECTIVE STRENGTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 675 ACROSS SWRN IA/NWRN MO. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO AREA AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF WW 675 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORECAST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40 KTS/ AND THE REMAINDER OF NRN MO/SRN IA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40939414 40499634 39539647 38679589 38889427 39909165 40469119 41139142 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 01:33:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 21:33:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030134 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MI...FAR NRN IN AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030134Z - 030300Z STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN MI ALONG FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STORMS AS THEY SHIFT SEWD. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SLIGHT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR IS PRODUCING 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2...SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS LIKELY WHICH MAY ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. GIVEN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42058689 42928297 42678268 41578344 41248509 41218699 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 03:23:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 23:23:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030324 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL NY AND NRN/CENTRAL VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677... VALID 030324Z - 030500Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 677. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE FAST MOVING BOW ECHO HAD WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS ERN PART OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BUT HAS SINCE RE-INTENSIFIED IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN HAMILTON COUNTY NY TO NERN WAYNE COUNTY NY. DESPITE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE SPEED OF THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT AT 40-50 KT SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE ESE. VAD DATA PER BUF AND BTV WSR-88DS SHOWED 40-50 KT EXTENDING DOWN TO AROUND 1 KM AGL WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43727676 44087556 45017460 44997154 43257247 43267325 42947332 42807481 42647600 42847665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 04:36:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 00:36:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030437 MOZ000-IAZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN IA / NORTH CENTRAL-NERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675... VALID 030437Z - 030500Z WW 675 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE TOWARD SERN IA/ NERN MO AND WRN IL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WINDS IS VERY LOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST HOUR AT SZL...CDJ AND LWD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS INDICATED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES ENE TOWARD WRN IL. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX... 39499404 39879378 40859380 41069391 41109309 41099248 40129233 39689241 39419302 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 10:33:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 06:33:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031033 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IN...SRN LAKE MI...SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 679... VALID 031033Z - 031230Z BOW SHAPED SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS NERN IL AT 40 KT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD PLACE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO SWRN LOWER MI AND PARTS OF NRN INDIANA BY 12-13Z. AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 679 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RADAR SIGNATURES INDICATING SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL...WITH PERIODIC WEAK ECHO REGIONS EVIDENT SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF DESCENDING REAR INFLOW JET STRUCTURES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE LINE. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION OF DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND INTO SWRN LAKE MI AND EXTREME NWRN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN LAKE MI TOWARD SWRN LOWER MI...PERSISTENT 40-50 KT WESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT ON AREA VAD PROFILES AT 1-2 KM AGL SUGGEST CONTINUED DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM IS LIKELY WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THUS...AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 679 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..WEISS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42518689 43028608 43328516 43338452 42408425 41658448 40938592 40738691 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 14:58:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 10:58:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031500 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031459 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IND...N CNTRL OH...NRN PA/SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031459Z - 031630Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES /LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18-19Z...PROBABLY MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST OF BUFFALO NY INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF CLEVELAND OH. THOUGH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTIONS AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40458578 41258406 41738246 42238110 42477890 42487768 41777723 41367761 41007974 40298200 39578383 39558576 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 17:26:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 13:26:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031727 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...SE NY...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031727Z - 031930Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z...IF NOT SOONER...PROBABLY INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT...IT APPEARS WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING IS UNDERWAY...AND STRONG HEATING IS ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE POCONO AND CATSKILL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F...MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AFTER 21Z WITH THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EVOLVING NEAR THE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK BORDER. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD BE REACHED EARLIER...SUPPORTING INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 41997487 42467387 42497258 42657131 41997007 41277038 40697279 40567438 41147563 41787551 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 17:57:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 13:57:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031758 FLZ000-032000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 031758Z - 032000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED HIGHER SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF TIME AS THE TWO CONVECTIVE LINES/OUTFLOWS MERGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 60 NM EAST OF MIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MODERATE NLY UPPER FLOW /20-30 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM TOP VENTILATION. IN ADDITION ...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED BY -9 DEG C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CORE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT GREATER UPDRAFT STRENGTH. RELATIVELY DEEP ELY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE PROPAGATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WELL INLAND THROUGH SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS SEA BREEZE FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER ERN LEE/WRN HENDRY...COLLIER AND NRN MONROE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE SHEAR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25978028 26978023 27418069 27468129 27328186 27008200 26478190 26128162 25938145 25508101 25588066 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:20:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:20:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031821 OHZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683... VALID 031821Z - 031945Z CONTINUE WW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING INTO A GROWING CLUSTER IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. WEAK SHEAR HAS SLOWED ORGANIZATION...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES GENERATED BY INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL. AS THIS OCCURS...30 KT GENERAL EASTERLY STORM MOTION MAY ACCELERATE... ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SURGES THROUGH HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR OR ABOVE 90F. AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF DAYTON/COLUMBUS INTO MANSFIELD MAY BE IMPACTED BY 21Z. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40448410 40748375 40988277 40978123 40188106 39808264 39698379 39958422 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:47:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:47:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031847 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-032045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN VA...NERN TN AND WRN/CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 031847Z - 032045Z SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SCENTRAL VA. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VWP DATA FROM MORRISTOWN TN AND JACKSON KY INDICATE THAT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KTS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN RECENT NAM/RUC GUIDANCE VALUES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERAL MODESTLY ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN AND OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE DEVELOPING TSTM LINES WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED HIGH LEVEL SSELY FLOW. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WWD MOVING ANVILS AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE LINES. THEREFORE DESPITE THE MARGINAL WIND FIELDS...THERE SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... 37527933 37648048 37378140 37248211 36658262 36308284 35498171 35318051 35267975 35527843 35687805 35807778 36777790 37007813 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:48:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:48:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031849 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682... VALID 031849Z - 032015Z CONTINUE WW. GROWING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING NEAR BINGHAMTON ...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF PITTSBURGH INTO THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF DAYTON OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD WITHIN 30 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND HEATED/MOIST WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOLS. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41428052 41597928 42257801 42207639 41517524 40517552 40327721 40268004 40618105 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:55:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:55:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031855 OKZ000-TXZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031855Z - 032130Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK WWD INTO FAR NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE. HVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WCENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLE A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT-TOWERING CU OVER SRN OK IN AN AIRMASS THAT WAS NEARLY UNCAPPED AND WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMA ESEWD TO NEAR CDS AND ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM AMA EWD TO NEAR OKC. INSPECTION OF AREA VWPS/PROFILER DATA SHOWS AROUND 20 KTS OF MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW...SO STORMS MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT /95-103 F/ COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED FRONTOGENETIC INFLUENCE OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS NRN OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG OTHER WEAKER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO SVR POTENTIAL...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE/WRN OK...DUE TO BACKED LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW...ALONG WITH W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES /1.7 INCHES AT AMA/ WILL SUPPORT A HVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35780281 35210293 34240178 34010054 33959978 33939853 34039732 34219679 34489582 34809511 35189514 35519571 35499655 35579692 35579786 35849914 36160232 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 19:25:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 15:25:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031926 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...NWRN TN...FAR WRN KY/FAR SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031926Z - 032130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN AR ENEWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES...REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20-25 KTS OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A BNDRY THAT DEVELOPED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FYV ENEWD TO NEAR CGI. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION/BNDRY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT SEVERAL WEAKLY ORGANIZED BANDS OF MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z OVER NRN AR AND SERN MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD AROUND 15 KTS TOWARD EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY AND NWRN TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36109312 35649417 35289415 34679391 35249151 35938952 36258862 36768820 37388860 37378937 37059019 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 20:06:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 16:06:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032006 RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...NRN NJ...SE NY...LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 032006Z - 032130Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS PEAKING...WITH TEMPERATURES LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 100F IN URBAN AREAS. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO THE SOUTH OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WHICH HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF BOSTON...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THE POCONOS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW YORK CITY...AND SURFACE COLD POOL SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING WITH UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 22-23Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALL APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41957577 42137469 42067403 42007325 41897197 41307147 40857218 40647330 40647417 40507468 40497571 40817645 41347588 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 21:58:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 17:58:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032159 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL IND...SRN IL...SWRN OH AND FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032159Z - 040000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO POSE SVR WIND THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN IL...CENTRAL/SRN IND IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN OH INTO SERN IND. ADDITIONAL STG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HR OVER CENTRAL IND AND PORTIONS OF SRN IL ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AIRMASS WAS MOST UNSTABLE OVER SRN IND AND FAR NRN KY/SWRN OH...MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG...WHERE AMPLE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS REDUCED HEATING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT /MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/. DESPITE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY...SLIGHTLY GREATER FORCING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL/IND AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER SRN IL/CENTRAL IND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...IT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM IF CONVECTION IN EITHER AREA CAN GROW UPSCALE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 40028514 39818641 39688699 38768886 38338912 38148890 37938803 37648653 37858558 38298449 38908413 39448411 39888448 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 22:21:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 18:21:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032222 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN OH/WRN-SWRN OH/NRN WV/FAR WRN MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682...683... VALID 032222Z - 032345Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO PARTS OF NRN WV AND FAR WRN MD PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NOBLE TO HOCKING COUNTIES OH WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE SE AT 20 KT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUSTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A MODEST SWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW FLANK OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY MCS. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE SSE OF WW/S 682/683 AWAY FROM STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES. FARTHER TO THE NE...THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED EWD INTO WRN PA WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...GIVEN THE MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ALLEGHENY FRONT IN WRN PA SWWD TO CENTRAL/ERN WV. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39498314 39798294 40308168 41668071 41817984 41587847 40367856 39747885 39137920 38398033 38218144 38538230 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 23:18:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 19:18:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032318 OKZ000-TXZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN AND ERN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 032318Z - 040115Z CLUSTER OF MARGINALLY SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/SCENTRAL OK. GIVEN THE RELATIVE MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF OK BEGINNING BY 01Z...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER-MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND MUCH OF ERN OK. RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CINH OVER NRN OK...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING NWD THROUGH WCENTRAL OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND SOME SVR WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF NRN OK. ISOLATED SVR WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ECENTRAL OK. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...NWD STORM MVMNT INTO MORE STABLE AIR ALONG THE KS BORDER AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY UNDERCUTTING MOST NEW CONVECTION IN SRN OK...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BEGINNING BY 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 36699835 36869975 36490097 36230103 35860085 34960029 34619988 34639884 34569797 34459703 34959582 35429539 36089610 36359739 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 23:35:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 19:35:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032335 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 032335Z - 040030Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN-SERN CT...SRN RI...SERN MA...MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND NERN NJ THROUGH 01-02Z. SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ALONG THE RI/SERN CT COAST TO A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CT AT THIS TIME...WHILE A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD TO ERN LONG ISLAND AND WWD ALONG LONG ISLAND TO NRN NJ. MEANWHILE...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SWWD THROUGH ERN MA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM NEAR 25 N ORH TO 15 SSE EWB. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SERN CT IN MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS W OF THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NJ REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 35 KT SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE SERN CT ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN RI TO OFF THE SERN MA COAST. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41027611 41367484 41297372 41657265 41847210 41877053 40577067 40217358 39967504 40137609 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 01:35:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 21:35:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040135 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NRN-CENTRAL NJ TO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 040135Z - 040200Z WW 684 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL-SERN PA INTO CENTRAL NJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH CENTRAL NJ/SERN PA...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE NJ COAST AT 50 E NEL TO APPROXIMATELY 30 SE CXY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO NJ ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS YET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THUS INCREASING SURFACE BASED CINH...WILL ALLOW WW 684 TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. ..PETERS.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40377392 39937518 40237607 40577613 40927592 41237513 41307391 41527302 41597181 41497107 41137068 40637081 40227330 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 16:52:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 12:52:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041653 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041653Z - 041830Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL AND SRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS NCNTRL FL ATTM. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AIDING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SFC DATA SHOWS DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70 TO 75 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM SE GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP FROM TALLAHASSEE SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY FROM TALLAHASSEE EWD SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31488291 31198213 30688154 29488083 28218058 27418099 27458201 28148278 28518290 29178334 29648396 29878496 30408543 31098534 31538451 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 17:20:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 13:20:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041721 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-041915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/SW VA/WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041721Z - 041915Z ...ISOLD SVR THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO THE SW VA MTNS AND SMOKY MTNS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TO CNTRL VA. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS NOW IN W TN THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSON TO MEMPHIS. NEW TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM HENDERSON CO EWD NEAR FRONTAL ZONE PER RECENT VIS IMAGERY. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF TN IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AS NOTED ON MODIFIED 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. REGION EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINA PLAINS IS BEING MONITORED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35218147 34918373 35038847 35798812 36638754 36828373 36868139 36458033 35998057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 17:38:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 13:38:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041739 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-041915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...ERN SC...ERN NC AND ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041739Z - 041915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. SFC TEMPS HAVE REACHED 95 TO 100 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN VA WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC INVERTED-V PROFILES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 32258034 31948128 32298232 33148233 34488058 36217855 37607790 38127725 38037649 37377574 35917605 34177770 32787948 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 18:24:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 14:24:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041824 MNZ000-NDZ000-042000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041824Z - 042000Z A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN ND AND NW MN. THIS CONVECTION IN NE ND AND NRN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ND... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NRN ND AND NW MN. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD INTO AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MAY BE SUSTAINED FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN SD...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN SCNTRL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48159988 48729846 48949684 48849572 48659440 48069350 47439371 47089464 47239596 47139744 46579852 46059947 46109995 46360101 47110105 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 18:55:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 14:55:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041855 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW THROUGH SERN OK/SW MO/WRN AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041855Z - 042100Z ...THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS INCREASING THIS AFTN... STALLED/WASHED OUT FRONT EXTENDS FROM ADA TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK. SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY...EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/TCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/WCNTRL AR. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...BUT AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MODIFIED LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2500 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WITH COLLAPSING STORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WILL BE IN LOCATIONS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MAXIMIZED WITH INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN OK/WCNTRL AR WHERE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AT ARDMORE TO MID 60S NEAR HOT SPRINGS. HIGH PW VALUES FROM 1.75-2 INCHES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34539169 33809350 33639977 34549992 35319859 36859719 36819464 36539174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 19:23:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 15:23:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041923 SDZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041923Z - 042100Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD. HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXISTS IN CNTRL AND NRN SD. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT EVIDENT ON THE PROFILER IN SWRN SD AT 18Z SUGGESTS SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM WHICH SHOULD FAVOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43260229 43470307 44420311 45770218 45679996 43640082 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 00:46:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 20:46:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050046 NDZ000-SDZ000-050145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 050046Z - 050145Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 685 IN CENTRAL SD AND SRN ND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SIOUX COUNTY ND TO JUST S OF JMS...WITH A SECOND AREA OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL SD TO THE W AND N OF PIR. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH A NARROW N-S ORIENTED AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTING ORGANIZATION/ SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES... EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-400 M2/S2 FROM EMMONS COUNTY ND TO LYMAN COUNTY SD INDICATED AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND RESULTANT THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. HIGH BASED STORMS DUE TO DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO 40 DEGREES SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43760138 46650104 46639804 45989812 43719913 43470014 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 03:20:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 23:20:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050320 SDZ000-NDZ000-050345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 050320Z - 050345Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WW 685 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AREA WSR-88DS AND WIND PROFILERS SHOWED A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ /UP TO 40 KT/ ACROSS WRN NEB THIS EVENING. SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW REMAINING OVER NWRN SD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL SD. NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WAA IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SLY LLJ AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TREND FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF SD/ND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE. AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW. ..PETERS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44339856 43489948 43710140 44530159 45550125 46590030 46659834 46449749 45299787 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 18:21:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 14:21:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051822 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL GA...THE SC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...SRN NC. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051822Z - 051945Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 19-20Z. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY ALONG AND S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM JUST N OF AGS TO NEAR CAE AND ILM. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS GA AND SC. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME...THOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION STILL APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 34357998 34337893 34297847 34117836 33887903 33407953 33058005 32748058 32608135 32788207 32838335 33128400 33508393 33868234 34188079 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 18:23:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 14:23:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051824 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051824Z - 052100Z ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SLOWING INCREASING WITHIN A BAND FROM EXTREME NWRN MN INTO SERN ND...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ND. IN ADDITION...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED BY 20Z. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND/EXTREME NWRN MN HAVE PERIODICALLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOUR WITHIN A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...BUT SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNLESS THEY ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. AREA WITH GREATER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF DVL TO SOUTH OF BIS. ALTHOUGH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAK FALLS IN ADVANCE WILL ENHANCE ISALLOBARIC FORCING...PERSISTENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE INHIBITED WIDESPREAD STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD MANITOBA AND ND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50-60 KT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ND WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 40-45 KT EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ..WEISS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48779826 49029790 48979482 48529439 47109483 45889622 45919826 45950031 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 18:53:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 14:53:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051853 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL...CENTRAL/SRN MS...LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051853Z - 052100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND PARTS OF LA...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL AL SWWD INTO SERN LA...ENHANCED BY DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS AL AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING WWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM/MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. 15-20 KT NELY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SWRN MS/SERN LA AREA...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS. STRONG HEATING HAS STEEPENED THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..WEISS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30139252 31069243 31999100 32648985 32948795 33608581 33518518 32798514 31468860 31088996 30349122 29819177 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 19:31:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 15:31:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051932 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SRN AR/NRN LA/EXTREME NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051932Z - 052130Z ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM ECNTRL OK THROUGH SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS NERN LA/SERN AR INVOF MLU TO LLQ...POSSIBLY AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH ELY WAVE IN GULF. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 90S OR HIGHER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG. RUC ANALYSIS AND MORNING RAOBS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A COOL POCKET ALOFT...WHERE 500MB TEMPS ARE NEAR MINUS 7C. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES REMAIN VERY WEAK...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT PULSE SVR TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32129099 32259411 33989645 34829618 35439545 35449472 35099342 34669146 34319057 33599033 32569029 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 21:27:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 17:27:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052127 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/NCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052127Z - 052330Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 40 WSW GFK TO MBG TO RAP...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD INTO NEB/KS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WV LOOPS SHOW AN IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL SD WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN SD HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW MN...WHERE BILLOWS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG INHIBITION. LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD ARE VERY STEEP...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 41819794 41930088 44690135 45990037 45929678 44399629 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 22:34:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 18:34:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052235 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/WRN KS/PARTS OF SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052235Z - 060000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS INTO SWRN-CENTRAL NEB. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED THREAT AND PULSE-TYPE STORM MODE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND WRN EXTENT OF GREATER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ HAS RESULTED IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE TENDING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... ASCENT AHEAD OF ONE OR TWO WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING NWD WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PULSE WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 40899950 39330016 37750167 37050284 37010386 37790369 38350257 39490137 40720078 41040024 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 00:35:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 20:35:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060035 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NRN AND WRN MN/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686... VALID 060035Z - 060130Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 686 THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN/ERN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO NWRN MN AND SERN ND...AND OVERTAKING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BECOME STRONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NWRN MN /ROSEAU COUNTY/ AND OVER SERN ND /RANSOM AND RICHLAND COUNTIES/ DURING LAST 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A 60-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER ND INTO NWRN MN. ASCENT SPREADING EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD INTO NRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN TO NERN SD THIS EVENING. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 55 KT RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS NWRN MN AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING AT INL WITH SFC-3 KM SRH EXCEEDING 240 M2/S2. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SD AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE ACROSS SD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. FARTHER E ACROSS NERN MN...AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE WHICH SUGGESTS EWD EXTENT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW SWD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AND ERN SD. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45269876 46549734 48319587 48969576 48949401 48549348 46539403 45359472 44929632 44959816 44909867 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 01:49:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 21:49:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060150 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687... VALID 060150Z - 060315Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS MAINLY SWRN PART OF WW 687...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB THIS EVENING. NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT...UNLESS A MARKED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES/COVERAGE BEGINS TO OCCUR. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NERN NEB...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BOONE/MADISON COUNTIES NEB. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SSWWD THROUGH HOLT COUNTY NEB TO NWRN KS...WHILE A SSWLY LLJ EXTENDED FROM NRN KS INTO NERN NEB. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AT LEAST 15 MILES AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EWD ALONG SERN SD/NERN NEB BORDER COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE S OF WW 687...MAINLY IN ERN NEB...THIS NEW STRONG/ SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...THUS PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41479849 42379822 43419820 43839688 43839484 42219490 41359524 41009717 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 04:14:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 00:14:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060415 MNZ000-060515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688... VALID 060415Z - 060515Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL-NERN MN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA...WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF 35 KT SWLY LLJ INDICATED OVER NERN MN PER DLH WSR-88D VWP SHOULD ALLOW SRN EXTENT OF ONTARIO STORM CLUSTER TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS STRONGEST FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM NRN MN. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48249146 47159295 46289307 46199404 46429473 47349456 48689431 48689295 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 07:51:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 03:51:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060751 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 AM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060751Z - 060915Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORM COMPLEX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT SMALL TSTM COMPLEX FROM ST. CROIX COUNTY WI SWWD RICE COUNTY MN HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO WHILE MOVING 270/30-35 KTS. THESE STORMS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS /SRN MN INTO NRN IA/ REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/...WITH STORMS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ROOTED IN THE .5 TO 1 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL WI BECOMES LESS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH OCCUR...THOUGH MAIN INFLOW SOURCE REGION WILL REMAIN TO THE SW. ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD INTO W-CNTRL WI...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY INTENSIFYING OVER NERN IA INTO SWRN WI. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43859322 44289350 44949328 45349267 45509135 45329011 44498994 43499019 43309149 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 18:56:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 14:56:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061856 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS AND SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061856Z - 062130Z WATCH NOT EXPECTED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA SWWD THRU SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG CELLS JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME STRONGER LOOKING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES OVER KS ARE AROUND 100...INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THRU NWRN MO...AND UPR 80S INTO SRN IA. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE BASES OF AROUND 8000 FT AGL AS IT STILL FIGHTS CAPPING INVERSION. BUT...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEEPEN ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7-7.5C/KM WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD THEN COLLAPSE POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889690 40289573 40729424 41109333 41449306 41889304 42099358 41999432 41719513 41459597 41159697 40979771 40609884 40169937 39599967 39189984 38769991 38479962 38709881 39129821 39659750 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 19:02:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 15:02:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061901 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS AND SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061901Z - 062130Z WATCH NOT EXPECTED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA SWWD THRU SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG CELLS JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME STRONGER LOOKING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES OVER KS ARE AROUND 100...INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THRU NWRN MO...AND UPR 80S INTO SRN IA. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE BASES OF AROUND 8000 FT AGL AS IT STILL FIGHTS CAPPING INVERSION. BUT...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEEPEN ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7-7.5C/KM WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD THEN COLLAPSE POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889690 40289573 40729424 41109333 41449306 41889304 42099358 41999432 41719513 41459597 41159697 40979771 40609884 40169937 39599967 39189984 38769991 38479962 38709881 39129821 39659750  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 21:12:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 17:12:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062113 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062112 ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-062315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO/WRN AR/ERN OK/NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062112Z - 062315Z ...ISOLD MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF SE OK AS WELL AS NE TX... LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH ELY WAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SRN LA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GULF WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OZARKS IN MO/AR THROUGH NE TX. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 102-106 ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL OK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/70S...THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES NEAR 1400 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT AS STORMS COLLAPSE...STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL RESULT IN ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO INDICATED A 42 KT GUST AS THE TEMP DROPPED FROM 96 TO 80...AND IN NE TX...A 44KT GUST WAS RECORDED AT GREENVILLE /KGVT/. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURSTS...LOCAL CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60+ MPH. ..TAYLOR.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32849351 31409591 32139719 34649672 36289524 38359344 38429272 37929234 34689216 33319240 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 22:21:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 18:21:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062221 MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-062345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN-SERN OH/WRN-NRN WV/SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062221Z - 062345Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN-ERN OH...WRN-NRN WV INTO SWRN PA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN-ERN OH AND WRN-NRN WV INTO SWRN PA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN OH AT THIS TIME SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE SEGMENTS. THUS...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FROM ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES...WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38898187 39418223 39998223 40378190 40678125 40778050 40647974 39767949 39467938 38997979 38728067 38638163 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 7 01:08:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 21:08:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070105 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB/NRN MO/SRN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070105Z - 070230Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO...AND POTENTIALLY FAR SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB/NORTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA THIS EVENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR ERN IA SWWD INTO NRN/NWRN MO AND THEN GENERALLY WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE SE AND S MOVEMENT OF THE FAR NWRN MO AND KS PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH ARE BEING ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT STORMS ARE HIGH BASED WITH 30-40 SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS... ESPECIALLY OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER INCREASE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION...AND THUS DECREASE OVERALL SEVERE WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 08/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41599066 40119045 39299157 39029356 38909501 38809596 39659637 40269610 40829534 41239332 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 00:57:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 20:57:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120058 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN DAKOTAS...NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 710... VALID 120058Z - 120230Z TWO MAIN AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS PERSIST...ONE FROM NWRN SD INTO WRN ND ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ANOTHER OVER FAR S-CNTRL SD INTO NRN NEB...INITIATED BY STRONG HEATING. THE GAP/LACK OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN SD HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS. THUS...DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY BETWEEN PIR AND RAP. HOWEVER...ISOLATED RIGHT MOVING CELL NEAR FAITH SD WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS IT TRACKS SEWD E OF THE DRYLINE. FARTHER N...STORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH STRONGER FORCING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER. ..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GGW... 42149928 42120244 49030408 48970016 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 03:01:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:01:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120301 NEZ000-SDZ000-120430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120301Z - 120430Z A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST ACROSS NE NEB OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD IN INTENSITY AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR O'NEILL NEB IS VERY NEAR AN INSTABILITY MAX ACROSS NRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE MCS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD TOWARD NORFOLK NEB LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK ACROSS ERN NEB AND THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF STORM INTENSITY IN THE MCS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41349711 41369814 41849875 42399869 42779827 42849742 42639678 41889640 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 03:29:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:29:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120331 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-120500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...NE ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120331Z - 120500Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO NE SD AND NE ND ATTM. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ND AND SD MOVING INTO A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE NRN MCS IN NRN ND IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS GOING INTO NE ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE SRN MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NE SD. THE TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...FSD...ABR... 47239864 47529968 48019991 48649973 48939856 48799738 48139705 47459749 45809939 45919806 45649698 44649710 44449880 44889969 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 03:36:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:36:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120338 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...NE ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120338Z - 120515Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO NE SD AND NE ND ATTM. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ND AND SD MOVING INTO A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE NRN MCS IN NRN ND IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS GOING INTO NE ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE SRN MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NE SD. THE TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44899971 46369996 48249990 48809940 48909796 48519719 47289691 45649698 44649710 44449880 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 08:12:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 04:12:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120813 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN ND/PARTS OF CENTRAL-ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 120813Z - 120915Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NERN ND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN MN. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE EAST OF WW 712 INTO NWRN MN BY 09Z...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF NEW WW AT THIS TIME. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TRAVERSED SWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA APPEAR TO BE AIDING ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS OVER ERN SD...NERN MT INTO NWRN ND AND THE LARGER MCS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA INTO NERN ND. ...NERN ND/NWRN MN... IN ADDITION TO ASCENT AHEAD OF NERN ND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...30-35 KT SWLY LLJ OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY RESERVOIR LOCATED OVER ERN ND/CENTRAL SD TO SUSTAIN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FLANK OF THIS MCS. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN MN BETWEEN 08-09Z...BUT AREAL COVERAGE FOR A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ...ERN SD... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN SD CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HON TO 9V9 AND THEN GENERALLY WWD INTO SWRN SD. 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB INTO CENTRAL SD IS RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUPPORTING WAA REGIME GIVEN 850 MB N-S ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER ERN SD. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS COMPLEX...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN ND... ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/NERN ND MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN ND EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GENERALLY WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 49009579 46539647 45709726 44179718 43879739 43869911 44380050 44880052 45640037 46850081 47160167 47820232 48580100 49030017 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 18:26:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 14:26:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121827 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121827Z - 122000Z SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BASED IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...APPEARS UNDERWAY IN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RISING THROUGH THE 90S. WITH CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH PEAK HEATING ...UPDRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING INCREASES NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES. SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...BUT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20-30 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ENHANCE RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE EAST OF SYDNEY NE INTO AREAS OF SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF PIERRE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST NOTABLE EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 21Z...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. ..KERR.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41310268 42250193 43490114 44350070 45150049 45459912 44839819 43919824 42249939 41060047 40560195 40950264 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 18:37:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 14:37:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121838 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-122115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121838Z - 122115Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN GA...WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME NECESSARY. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHERE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOVING SEWD WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...AND MAY FORM INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOW CAUSING GUSTY WINDS...SOME STRONG. ..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30678142 31218437 32578393 33108318 32328058 31838095 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 19:35:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 15:35:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121937 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...PARTS OF WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121937Z - 122100Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/ WESTERN MN. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LEAD WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTRIBUTING TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING/ INCREASING IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 21-22Z. GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...THOUGH THERE LIKELY STILL REMAINS SOME INHIBITION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ...AND CLOUD COVER IS RESTRICTING SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT CREATING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AROUND THE FARGO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46209919 47109901 47779849 48569733 48529608 47389591 46049665 45559775 45719918 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 19:43:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 15:43:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121944 WYZ000-MTZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SW MT...CNTRL AND NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121944Z - 122215Z ISOLATED SVR WIND AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER SRN OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS ID AND INTO WRN MT/WY BY THIS EVENING. COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING HAS PRODUCE VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE THREAT IS INSTABILITY...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEAK /< 500 J/KG/ DUE TO ONLY UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG 50+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND FAVORABLE/INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT...A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX... 44171026 45221131 46490942 46090702 44930675 43230653 42880771 42820924 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 22:06:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 18:06:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122208 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE UT...SW WY AND NW CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122208Z - 122345Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NE UT...SW WY AND NW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL WY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SERN WY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S F WITH A POCKET OF 50 TO 55 F DEWPOINTS LOCATED FROM GRAND JUNCTION CO NWD TO THE WYOMING STATE-LINE. ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS...A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN NRN UT WHERE SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AREA OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 TO 25 F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... 39490825 39901067 40611258 41671186 41330929 40500773 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 23:04:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 19:04:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122306 MNZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122306Z - 130030Z SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD ACROSS NRN MN AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW MAY NOT BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS CURRENTLY IN NW MN LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GOING OVER THE TOP OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT IN ERN SD AND THE MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET MAX. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT SUPPORTING THE MCS THIS EVENING MOVING ACROSS NRN MN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR 88D VWPS...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER ACROSS NRN MN. THIS ALONG WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THIS EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46699285 46579505 47859554 48839511 48549285 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 13 00:02:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 20:02:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130004 MNZ000-SDZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130004Z - 130130Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN NEB INTO SE SD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 F RANGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE CENTER OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE MCS IS MOVING PRIMARILY ENEWD ATTM...THE STORMS MAY TEND TO DRIFT MORE EWD WITH TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ENEWD INTO MN. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT PARTS OF SW MN LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR QUICKLY ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN AS MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. SUPERCELLS MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. ..BROYLES.. 08/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 43619474 43499734 43849815 44619768 44819605 44679503 44359446 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 13 18:56:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2006 14:56:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131858 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO...SW/S CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131858Z - 132030Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING INHIBITION IN AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A TOPEKA/OMAHA/KANSAS CITY LINE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 20-22Z...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH MO AND LAMONI IA. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE AIDED BY LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ON TAIL END OF BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW VEERING TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AT 500 MB...ABOVE LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 08/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41909400 41819300 41169281 40529297 39619386 39339489 39919582 40659520 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 13 23:03:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2006 19:03:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132304 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...WCNTRL IL...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718... VALID 132304Z - 140000Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ITS ESEWD PROPAGATION ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SRN END. DOWNSTREAM...A NARROW WEDGE OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EXISTS TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS A CONTINUATION OF THIS MCS...WITH EMBEDDED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES WILL MOVE EAST OF CURRENT WATCH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 08/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39669405 41469163 41019020 39699108 39179228 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 01:36:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2006 21:36:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140138 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-140245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719... VALID 140138Z - 140245Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RACE WELL AHEAD OF BROADER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM NWRN MO INTO SERN IA. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER STORMS IS PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25 KT THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WW719...AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..DARROW.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 41629191 39999025 38399243 39989409 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 18:11:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 14:11:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141812 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-141945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...NRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141812Z - 141945Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING WITH LARGEST TOWERS OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE CIN HAS ERODED. CONTINUED HEATING WILL ERODE CIN FARTHER E...ALLOWING ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE MTNS TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY EWD. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. ..JEWELL.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 39420570 42410587 43570477 44020357 43980222 43190163 39960299 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 19:42:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 15:42:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141942 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY...NRN MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141942Z - 142145Z A BAND OF STRONG MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY TOWARD NRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WAKE OF THE KY CONVECTION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BAND ACROSS CENTRAL KY HAVE INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SMALL SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH 15-20 KT FORWARD SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD DIMINISH ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS WARM/MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-2C TO -4C AT 500 MB/ IS RESULTING IN WEAK DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES AND LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF UPWARD PARCEL ACCELERATION. STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 900 MB MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE PERMITTED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD INTO SRN IL/SWRN IN AND WRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WIND PROFILERS/VAD WINDS INDICATE WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT ABOVE 2 KM AGL PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ..WEISS.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36949190 37929156 38559058 38458922 38358733 37858575 37368483 36878494 36118532 35968663 36528945 36669133 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 20:17:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 16:17:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142017 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR...OK...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142017Z - 142215Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SWRN INTO ERN OK AND NWRN AR. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IS LOCATED ALONG A CDS/CSM/OUN/MKO/SOUTH OF HRO LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN AR...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEAR THE OUTFLOW OVER OK. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILERS/VAD WINDS SHOW 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SW OF ABI IS LIFTING NNEWD TOWARD NWRN TX WITH DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..WEISS.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35019490 34809668 33709791 33249849 33449951 33760042 34750061 35489925 36069693 36249490 36329318 36139189 35599131 34949195  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 22:44:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 18:44:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142244 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN KY...NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 721... VALID 142244Z - 142345Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WW721... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM NERN AR...INTO WRN KY. MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS WITH A SLOW EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNSET. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST AT BEST AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING BEFORE ACTUALLY PROGRESSING COMPLETELY SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. ..DARROW.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36769326 39168733 36788736 34559325 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 15 00:19:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 20:19:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150021 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...ERN WY...WRN NEB...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150021Z - 150215Z SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH BOX WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGEST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. FARTHER S...THREAT CONTINUES WITH ACTIVITY FROM WRN NEB INTO NERN CO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THREAT HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF ERN WY AND THOSE COUNTIES WILL BE CLEARED AT 0030Z. 00Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG AND VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION OVER SWRN SD DUE TO BACKED SELY SURFACE WINDS...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMP/DEW SPREADS OVER 30 F. STILL...THREAT FOR PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES WILL RESULT. FARTHER S...ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG LINKED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO. WHILE INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW...STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS A FEW COUNTIES E OF THE WATCH. ..JEWELL.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 39580275 39550496 39100537 39930536 39950572 40160570 41000623 41000527 42670532 42650497 43490493 43520521 44990516 45040408 45230407 45240298 45060292 45090205 43690200 43680215 42990210 43000277 41180258 40410261 40420279 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 15 20:34:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 16:34:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152035 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH N CNTRL AND NERN SD...SERN ND AND W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152035Z - 152230Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN WY THROUGH WRN SD MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS FARTHER NE FROM N CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD INTO W CNTRL MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THIS REGION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL MN WWD THROUGH NRN SD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN WY THROUGH WRN SD. FARTHER EAST...ELEVATED MID LEVEL STORMS CONTINUE OVER NERN SD. RECENT SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW A BAND OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER N CNTRL SD. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS N CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MODEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND IS LIMITING MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS OVER NERN SD. A BELT OF 30 TO 35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. ..DIAL.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46269820 45340043 45100229 44790328 43190364 43360193 44629911 44849613 45909576 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 15 21:53:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 17:53:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152154 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-160000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN ID/SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152154Z - 160000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM FAR EASTERN ID ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ID...WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE DISTINCTLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS PER IR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS RELATIVELY MODEST PER ADJUSTED 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RIVERTON WY/BILLINGS MT WSR-88D VWPS AT LEAST PARTIALLY SAMPLE THE MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44220641 43740930 44231282 45681334 46660593 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 01:36:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 21:36:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160137 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...SERN ND...WCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722... VALID 160137Z - 160230Z ...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA... DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING ACROSS CNTRL SD THIS EVENING. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER ADDITIONAL SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELED. ..DARROW.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45920197 45939800 46289801 46299729 46639726 46649617 46729618 46729515 46389515 46369464 45799461 45779424 45689418 45569413 45419404 45309416 45299428 44989426 44979453 44729450 44719464 44449461 44449476 44709537 44539534 44549561 44639561 44619645 44539646 44539786 44629786 44629869 44199868 44209892 43929892 43939936 43859932 43769942 43689950 43629932 43509927 43509961 43769966 43689985 43700029 43740059 43720068 43760084 43840105 43980106 44000104 44180105 44180118 44980113 45000152 45460149 45460200 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 19:26:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 15:26:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161927 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161927Z - 162130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF ERN ND SWD INTO CNTRL SD NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD. MOIST AXIS HAS ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL SD AND LESS THAN 1500 J/KG FARTHER N INTO ND WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF ND PORTION OF BOUNDARY WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING EWD. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR DEVILS LAKE IN ND. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KT IN THIS REGION IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FARTHER SW IN SD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL SD WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST MINIMAL CAP REMAINS. ..DIAL.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46979666 43759957 43150138 46049969 48619873 48509699 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 19:36:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 15:36:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161938 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-162145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ORE/FAR SOUTHEAST WA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID INTO WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161938Z - 162145Z POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...NAMELY FROM FAR NORTHEAST ORE INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND FAR WESTERN MT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING EASTWARD OVER THE WA/ORE CASCADES...WITH DISTINCT DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER JET STREAK EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SIMILAR TO TRENDS OF INCREASING TOWERING CU/CBS PER VISIBLE IMAGERY...BROAD/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION WILL FAVOR A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN ORE INTO CENTRAL ID AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN MT. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM BOISE CAPTURES THE MARGINALLY-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALREADY AROUND 1000 J/KG. AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ATOP A WELL-MIXED LAYER FAVORABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT AMIDST RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..GUYER.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 44731837 46081747 48781613 48311281 46931073 45231100 43731425 43741791 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 22:23:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 18:23:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162223 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-170000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723... VALID 162223Z - 170000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN MT...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EAST OF WW 723...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MT INTO NORTHERN WY. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 723 IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT...WHERE STORMS HAVE PRIMARILY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WA/ORE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF WW 723...OBSERVATIONAL/RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS QUALITY/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH EAST EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE LEWISTOWN/BILLINGS MT AREAS AND FAR NORTHERN WY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...NO WATCH IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44521540 45921599 47421531 48351426 48561291 48060847 45790688 43780780 43911104 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 23:20:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 19:20:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162321 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... VALID 162321Z - 170045Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VLY THIS EVE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE AND HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING CINH TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NWRN MN SWWD TO NCNTRL SD. THE GRAND FORKS VWP SHOWED 35-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THIS WAS BOOSTING VERTICAL SHEAR TO VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 DEG C/KM... LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLD TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SERN ND...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WAS LOCALLY BACKED INVOF A WEAK SFC LOW. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER THIS EVENING...LESSENING THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WEAKER SHEAR COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MT WAVE SHOULD STRENGTHEN INHIBITION AND LESSEN THE SEVERE RISKS IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS NWRN MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..RACY.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44659938 45059983 46599952 48239820 49569622 49979464 48419495 47029606 45489730 44579805 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 01:58:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 21:58:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170159 MTZ000-IDZ000-170300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723... VALID 170159Z - 170300Z ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON/OREGON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH DURING REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS..HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..BOTHWELL.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44731673 48811512 48691004 44531199 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 03:40:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 23:40:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170341 MNZ000-NDZ000-170415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... VALID 170341Z - 170415Z MASS CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING OWING TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE LLJ NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO NWRN ONTARIO. INCREASING CINH AND THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER SUPPORT/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF STORMS THIS EVENING. THUS...THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH IN TIME OR SPACE. ..RACY.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47029602 46089639 46019669 46059773 46299839 46419829 48249708 48769628 48959517 48419495 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 06:51:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 02:51:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170652 NDZ000-MTZ000-170815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL MT INTO WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170652Z - 170815Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND INTO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN/SRN MT INTO WRN ND. DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS... FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT/WRN ND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT ARE RESULTING IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL/ COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING ORGANIZED BASED ON STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS PER WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGER WIND SPEEDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO RESULT IN A ISOLATED HAIL...THOUGH LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE. ..PETERS.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 45890956 45601145 45681247 46091268 46811250 47171107 47450938 47670748 47700565 47850359 47690054 47050028 46130101 45890469 45890758 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 19:09:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 15:09:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171910 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171910Z - 172115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA OF WRN ND AND SPREAD NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD ACROSS SD AND EXTENDS FROM MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN SD AND INTO NERN WY. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S SW OF THE FRONT OVER NERN WY. HOWEVER...ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT N OF FRONT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NWRN SD. THIS MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 8.5 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN AND NRN SD. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ENELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT EXISTS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 30 KT AT 500 MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN SD TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ACTIVITY MAY LATER EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ... 43890109 44060353 44670430 45730372 45920064 44829957 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 20:47:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 16:47:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172048 KSZ000-OKZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 172048Z - 172245Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH ELONGATED WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SW-NE ORIENTED STREAKS OF TOWERING CU/SOME CBS ARE NOTED AS OF 2030Z FROM WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHERN KS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...STRONG INSOLATION/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER 100S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2250 J/KG AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED/CINH ERODES. FARTHER NORTH...WHILE INITIALLY RELATIVELY MORE STABLE VIA MORNING CONVECTION...RETREATING/NORTHWARD SHIFTING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD VIA MODEST STORM MOTIONS/POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IN A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT /1.5-2.0 IN/. ..GUYER.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... 38859928 39769786 39799642 39549543 38439541 35489793 34569919 34709961 35399984 36829984 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 23:02:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 19:02:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172302 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...EXTREME SERN MT...WRN-CNTRL SD AND SWRN-SCNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172302Z - 180100Z 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM KATY-KPIR-KRAP AND A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS INTO NWRN SD AND NRN WY. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/N OF THE TROUGH HAS ADVECTED 55-60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS TO THE SD BLACK HILLS...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. PLUMES OF CUMULUS HAVE ERUPTED INTO TSTMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE CINH WAS WEAKENED BY HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE CINH IS STRONGER AND OVERALL FORCING WEAKER. THUS...IT APPEARS IN THE SHORT TERM...23-01Z...THAT THE HIGHEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST NEAR/NE OF THE RAPID CITY NEWD ACROSS MEADE AND ZIEBACH COUNTIES. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EDGES EWD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...THE SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD AND SWRN/SCNTRL ND. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER 03Z. STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER SWD AND GIVEN 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN SD. ..RACY.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 43870484 44940520 46140390 46700235 46800078 46009917 45289920 44289989 43340225 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 02:08:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 22:08:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180209 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...NWRN/NCNTRL SD...SWRN/SCNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180209Z - 180315Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE LLJ WAS INCREASING AND ENHANCING THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/N OF THE E-W COLD FRONT. THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS SERN MT AND NWRN SD...SIMILAR TO SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN SD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.8 DEG C PER KM ON THE 00Z KRAP SOUNDING/ ACROSS THE REGION AND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A THREAT AS WELL IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN SD. GIVEN THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD. ..RACY.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45900706 46720377 46400052 45739911 44750031 43780156 43510347 44290579 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 04:41:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 00:41:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180442 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180442Z - 180645Z TSTMS CONTINUE SCATTERED ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD AND WRN ND THIS EVE...AIDED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT SPREADING N OF THE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE DAKS. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER S...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN WY/SERN MT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL SD THROUGH 06Z. THIS OUTFLOW WILL AUGMENT THE COLD FRONT...AND TSTMS WILL BECOME POST-FRONTAL QUICKLY...OR BE ROOTED ATOP THE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SD. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..RACY.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45000574 46090430 45990179 45579943 44709908 44100121 44400489 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 04:45:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 00:45:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180446 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180446Z - 180645Z TSTMS CONTINUE SCATTERED ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD AND WRN ND THIS EVE...AIDED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT SPREADING N OF THE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE DAKS. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER S...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN WY/SERN MT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL SD THROUGH 06Z. THIS OUTFLOW WILL AUGMENT THE COLD FRONT...AND TSTMS WILL BECOME POST-FRONTAL QUICKLY...OR BE ROOTED ATOP THE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SD. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..RACY.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45000574 46090430 45990179 45579943 44709908 44100121 44400489 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 06:16:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 02:16:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180618 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180617 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT...FAR NE WY...NW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180617Z - 180745Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE MT...NE WY AND NW SD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN MN...INTO CNTRL SD AND SE WY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG) IS PRESENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BISMARK WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 44440175 44310386 44940465 45850431 46120294 45920170 45230115 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 22 20:51:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:51:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222051 SDZ000-NDZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222051Z - 222215Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS SD...WITH THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN SD NWWD INTO SWRN ND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN MT/WY. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE AIDING CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND GENERALLY 45 W THROUGH 50 S OF BIS. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY-VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...WARM H7 TEMPERATURES AT 10-12 C PER 18Z BIS SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD...THEN CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 08/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45760165 46280209 46880179 46840009 45369837 44589833 44349963 45250102 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 22 21:20:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 17:20:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222120 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NY/VT/NH/ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222120Z - 222315Z ...ISOLD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN NY THROUGH NH/VT AND ME... ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS REGION IS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN ONTARIO...AND THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE NEAR 35-40 KT PER RUC ANALYSIS AND AREA VWP DATA. BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING GIVEN TIME OF DAY...AND A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 08/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42847269 42657836 43467863 44907505 47446825 45116708 44206913 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 02:15:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 22:15:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230000 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...DAKOTAS...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230000Z - 230200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL... BUT THIS MAY STILL BE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS AND MOBRIDGE SD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...STRONG WARMING ABOVE THIS LAYER...EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO...SUPPRESS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE BLACK HILLS...PARTICULARLY WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CONVECTION...PROBABLY BASED AROUND 700 MB ...IS EVIDENT ALONG EDGE OF STRONGER CAP NORTH/NORTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN AND FARGO ND. THIS MAY PERSIST/INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TOWARD THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME...MODELS DO SUGGEST VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AN IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH EDGE OF STRONGER CAP IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SIZABLE CAPE...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL INCREASE. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SEEMS NEAR/EAST OF FARGO INTO ALEXANDRIA/BRAINERD AREAS. ..KERR.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47489895 47969841 48039725 47159526 45949367 45139343 44849456 45599598 45999693 46389843 46859900  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 03:01:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 23:01:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230302 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 731... VALID 230302Z - 230430Z CONTINUE WW 731...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE SOUTH/EAST. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT STILL APPEARS CENTER OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF FARGO ND AND NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MN BY 05-06Z. INTENSE CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ...WILL PROBABLY BECOME ALIGNED WITH WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN ...NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COULD POSE INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TIER SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF WATCH...ALONG INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN TRAINING CELLS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TOWARD THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA. ..KERR.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46499953 47389769 46949553 46599472 45899372 45149324 44899377 45039465 45179516 45379603 45709815 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 12:50:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 08:50:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231250 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-231445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733... VALID 231250Z - 231445Z SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN AND CNTRL/SRN WI THROUGH MID-MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN SD EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NRN IL. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 30+ KT WSWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET STREAK CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS. AREA VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT DEEP WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...12Z RAOBS AT ABR AND RAP SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL EML WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS SRN MN/IA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS...COUPLED WITH EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIN...SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN THE REGION ELEVATED. THE WRN EDGE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD INTO SE MN AND WRN/SRN WI WITH TIME. GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD... 43529404 43939467 44399520 44379366 44419290 44509223 44559159 44889065 44048994 43678973 43449075 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 18:16:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 14:16:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231817 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/PARTS OF CENTRAL-SRN WI/FAR NERN IA/FAR NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231817Z - 231945Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SERN MN/FAR NERN IA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN WI AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN IL. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SD/ND BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL MN...THEN SEWD TOWARD LSE TO SERN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 60S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN A MODERATELY-VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG/. WAA ALONG NOSE OF 25 KT SWLY LLJ HAS MAINTAINED ELEVATED CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WI TO THE N/E OF WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED NEW CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SERN MN/NERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WI...WHICH MAY BE INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING CINH. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 42579050 43139166 43899255 44429263 44849194 44969101 44859037 44108921 43238848 42338847 42338988 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 22:57:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 18:57:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232236 INZ000-MIZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NWRN INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232236Z - 240000Z STRONG/ROTATING STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SRN LK MI...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT SWRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN LK MI...ON ERN FRINGES OF INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT SWRN LOWER MI...GIVEN FAVORABLE/VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND AMPLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AREAL EXTENT OF THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM E OF A N-S AXIS INCLUDING WELLS/WHITLEY/NOBLE/LAGRANGE COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND BRANCH/CALHOUN COUNTIES IN LOWER MI. UNLESS STORMS CAN TURN DRAMATICALLY SWD AND REMAIN OVER WRN AND CENTRAL INDIANA -- WHICH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM -- WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42678723 42688602 42008534 41178532 40948612 41458748 42208755  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 00:15:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 20:15:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240017 WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/SRN AND CNTRL WI/NERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734... VALID 240017Z - 240215Z ...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT NOW ACROSS CNTRL WI... WELL DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN MN SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO JUST EAST OF LA CROSSE TO MADISON...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN STORM OF INTEREST IS NOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...AND RECENTLY HAD 2 INCH SIZE HAIL/SEVERE WINDS REPORTED. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR MINNEAPOLIS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BE CONFIRMED WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA. ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND WIND PROFILER/VAD DATA ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT...WITH VEERING WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN ISSUE SO FAR HAS BEEN LACK OF INITIATION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NRN IND. WE WILL WAIT FOR SOUNDING DATA BEFORE ISSUING CLEARANCE LINES...BUT TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS BOTH WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. IF A STORM FORMS ON OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX... 42789029 43809152 44729103 44308922 43978814 43638822 42358846 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 01:03:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 21:03:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240105 NDZ000-SDZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240105Z - 240230Z ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN ND...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING JUST E OF THE ND/MT BORDER. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONE SUPERCELL STORM MOVING SEWD INTO NERN HETTINGER COUNTY ATTM...WITH A RECENT STORM SPLIT NOTED. THIS HIGH-BASED STORM IS OCCURRING ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NWRN ND. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN BILLINGS...MCKENZIE...AND DUNN COUNTIES -- LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO MODEST ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA. WITH NAM/RUC SUGGESTING SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...CAP INDICATED ON EVENING BIS RAOB SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST E OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY WARRANT NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR... 45930271 46790356 47920370 47970219 47460038 46909986 46200015 46020148 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 02:24:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 22:24:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240226 INZ000-ILZ000-240300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735... VALID 240226Z - 240300Z SLOW DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY CONTINUES ACROSS WW. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS NWRN INDIANA ATTM...THOUGH STORM MOVING SWD ACROSS WHITE AND CARROLL COUNTIES AND INTO NERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY REMAINS FAIRLY INTENSE. STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ATTM OVER SRN LK MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI...BUT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI...NWRN INDIANA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LK MI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE WITH TIME. IN THE MEAN TIME...THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT... 40548760 40938609 40548613 40528748 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 02:32:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 22:32:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240233 ILZ000-WIZ000-240300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734... VALID 240233Z - 240300Z STORMS AND A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ATTM ACROSS SRN WI. WITH STORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST/SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS SRN WI AND ADJACENT NRN IL...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD STORMS -- INCLUDING A FEW WELL-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS -- CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION...WITH ORGANIZATION AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD THROUGH A DEEP LAYER CONFIRMED BY LATEST MXK /MILWAUKEE WI/ VWP. GIVEN ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED...REPLACING WW 734. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44449061 43938924 42888697 41708759 42669003 44049091 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 08:11:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 04:11:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240812 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-240945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NE IL...SW LOWER MI...NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737... VALID 240812Z - 240945Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS SRN WI AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SRN LOWER MI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE TOTAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN MN AND SRN WI ESEWD ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI AND NW OH. THE MCS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING IN SW LOWER MI ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THE TWO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS SOME LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40958579 41838837 42619010 43139090 43879088 44188975 43798857 43168701 42068482 41298494 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 09:12:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 05:12:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240914 NDZ000-MTZ000-241045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW ND...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240914Z - 241045Z DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN ND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 10Z ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL MT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND ATTM. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW EXISTS ACROSS SE MT/WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING MAKING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...AS SHEAR INCREASES...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46840123 46800341 46280424 46110513 46730647 47880628 48770473 48960221 48670087 47550050 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 11:24:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 07:24:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241126 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-241230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN WI...NRN IL...FAR NW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738... VALID 241126Z - 241230Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH AN MCS ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW SOUTH OF THE WW 738 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WNWWD FROM SRN LOWER MI THROUGH SRN WI INTO FAR SRN MN. AN MCS IS ONGOING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THIS MORNING...THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AFTER DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN... 41078793 41158859 41638910 42188974 42709002 42998964 43088897 42608755 41928675 41408689 41168705 41028736 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 15:17:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 11:17:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241519 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241518 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-241645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MN...WRN WI. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 241518Z - 241645Z COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS IS EXPANDING ACROSS SERN MN ATTM...BETWEEN WRIGHT AND HOUSTON COUNTIES...AND INCLUDING SWRN PORTIONS TWIN CITIES AREA. COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD WHILE EXPANDING ALONG EITHER END...INCLUDING INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI NOT PRESENTLY IN WW. LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACCORDINGLY. VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL -- ESTIMATED UP TO 4.25 INCH DIAMETER --- WAS REPORTED IN SCOTT COUNTY MN 1452Z FROM CORES NOW OVER RICE COUNTY...ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL EMBEDDED IN COMPLEX. ANOTHER SUPERCELL MOVING FROM RICE INTO GOODHUE COUNTY HAS PRODUCED SVR HAIL AS WELL. BACKBUILDING CONTINUES ON W SIDE OF THIS COMPLEX...POTENTIAL FOR WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE NOT ONLY TO REDUNDANT SVR POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS...BUT ALSO TO TRAINING OF ECHOES THAT WILL EXACERBATE HEAVY RAIN RISKS. MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ELEVATED HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS WITH LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT NEAR LINE 50 S LSE...20 S ULM...HON. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH 18Z...SOMEWHAT MORE QUICKLY OVER SWRN MN THAN OVER TWIN CITIES REGION WHERE ONGOING MCS IS REINFORCING LOW LEVEL STATIC STABILITY. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS...HOWEVER LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ABOVE FRONTAL SFC WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT WITH MODIFIED 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWING ELEVATED MUCAPES 4000 J/KG...AMIDST 55-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46279496 45239132 44109097 43479130 43939456 44639646 45279649 46009580 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 18:03:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 14:03:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241805 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH SERN MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 241805Z - 242000Z ...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN/SWRN WI WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS SPREADING INTO WCNTRL MN... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD THROUGH SRN MN...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY DEPICT A SECONDARY IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY...WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR ABERDEEN SD TO VALENTINE NEB AND ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IN WCNTRL MN. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LARGE HAIL NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E/SEWD FROM WCNTRL MN AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MORRISON/MILLE LACS AND KANABEC COUNTIES...GIVEN STRONG STORM NOW IN POPE COUNTY. SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS SWRN MN...WHICH HAS BEEN IN A RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE ZONE. AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THIS AFTN FOR SIGNS OF SFC-BASED STORMS. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD... 43169119 44569607 46319610 44839094 43219094 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 18:10:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 14:10:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241811 ILZ000-241945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241811Z - 241945Z STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN WI WILL APPROACH THE IL BORDER BY 19Z. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT HOUR. IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR NRN IL. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SRN WI ARE MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 40 KT. STORMS OVER SWRN WI APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THOUGH THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THIS REGION...SLY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH SRN EXTENT INTO IL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEPER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS A LITTLE MORE MODEST. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SSEWD. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... 41708761 41368838 41548967 42319021 42338787 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 19:43:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 15:43:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241944 MNZ000-WIZ000-242215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241944Z - 242215Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 740 AS THREAT FOR SFC BASED STORMS INCREASE... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS CLOUD STREETS STREAMING ACROSS NRN IA NEAR AXA/MCW...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MN ARE OBSCURING A BETTER VIEW OF SFC CUMULUS. SFC TEMPS ACROSS SW MN ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK OR COMPLETELY GONE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH INDICATED ON THE MINNEAPOLIS VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS BAND OF CONVECTION/ASCENT APPROACHING FROM ERN SD. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL HELP INITIATE SFC BASED STORMS ACROSS SWRN MN. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD... 43759434 44069612 45099619 44899432 44519225 43809205 43709286 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 19:55:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 15:55:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241957 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 742... VALID 241957Z - 242200Z THREAT FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL ND. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER S INTO SD. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SRN PORTIONS OF WW 742 MAY BE REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. THIS AFTERNOON AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL ND TO A SURFACE LOW IN NRN SD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO SWRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO S CNTRL SD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN ND WILL MAINTAIN STORMS OVER CNTRL ND NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER S INTO SD...A STRONG EML AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN SD HAVE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SO FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ZONE OF STRONG MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 3500 J/KG. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47539757 46359631 44779638 44599819 43439985 43490117 45830062 48270087 48429997 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 21:48:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 17:48:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242150 WIZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242150Z - 242245Z ...SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL WI EAST OF WW 743... LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW ELEVATED SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI. ELEVATED SUPERCELL NOW OVER DUNN CO WI IS MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KT AND WILL EXIT WW 743 IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. VERY LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED...WITH RECENT REPORTS OF 2.5 INCH HAIL JUST WEST IN PIERCE CO. 18Z SOUNDING FROM MINNEAPOLIS SHOWED ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT COMBINED WITH THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THESE STORMS...AND A NEW WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43369090 44129115 44949147 45499124 45108886 42748821 42569014 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 22:34:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 18:34:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242236 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242236Z - 242330Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS SERN SD AND SWRN MN... TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO HAND CO WILL CONTINUE MOVING E/SEWD AROUND 30 KT AND POSSIBLY AFFECT HURON WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS STORM EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO IN HYDE CO AROUND 2210Z...AND PRESENTS A THREAT TO PORTIONS OF SERN SD. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF HURON THROUGH SRN MN. AS THE FRONT SAGS SWD...STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN AIRMASS WITH MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-4500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILER DATA IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED ENVIRONMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 43419532 43139891 44699874 44369506 43629483 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 23:05:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 19:05:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242303 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD/SRN HALF OF MN/WRN WI/NERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...744... VALID 242303Z - 250030Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 743 AND 744. SURFACE LOW IS NOW INDICATED ACROSS N CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO SWRN WI...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL SD AND NWRN NEB. AIRMASS INVOF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH 3000 TO 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AIDED BY 50 KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS TO CONTINUE. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS...EVEN WELL N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS. MEANWHILE...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXISTS JUST E OF SURFACE LOW...AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT -- FROM ERN SD ESEWD INTO SRN WI. WITH MODERATE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF THIS FRONT...PRONOUNCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VEERING IS YIELDING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70/ SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE -- AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47249805 46799608 44909115 42849110 44329605 44719916 46309932 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 02:06:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 22:06:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250208 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0908 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/PARTS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...744...746... VALID 250208Z - 250345Z SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO N CENTRAL IA WITHIN SMALL AREA BETWEEN WW 743 AND 746...BUT NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS WW 744 -- I.E. SERN ND AND NERN SD. HOWEVER...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PERSIST NOW FROM SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN -- AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/INVOF WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW RESIDES OVER SERN MN...WHERE A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTING ACROSS SRN MN AND ADJACENT NRN IA AND AREA PROFILERS/VWPS DEPICTING WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW 746 AND SWD OUT OF WW 743 INTO N CENTRAL IA...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT SUGGESTS THAT NEW WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43459786 44339671 44529576 43939403 44029117 42889116 42669389 42849801 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 02:30:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 22:30:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250232 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745... VALID 250232Z - 250400Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. UPSTREAM OF WATCH 745...THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WEST CENTRAL WI INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IA VIA LINEAR MCS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF WNW-ESE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN COMMON...INCLUDING 66 MPH/74 MPH MEASURED GUSTS IN ROCHESTER MN...AND ESTIMATED 70-80 MPH WINDS EARLIER IN TREMPEALEAU COUNTY WI. MCS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE /MAINLY ELEVATED/ INSTABILITY. AS THE MCS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WI...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM LA CROSSE TO THE RICHLAND CENTER/PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AREAS...ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY/INCREASING INHIBITION SUGGESTS THE EAST EXTENT OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WELL NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...NAMELY ACROSS CENTRAL WI AREAS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF I-90/I-94...PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/EPISODIC LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44759077 44868994 44758938 44528875 44248803 43888783 42628804 42338891 42368990 42729087 43149117 43989108 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 04:23:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 00:23:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250424 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA/SWRN WI/NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 250424Z - 250600Z STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN MN AND ADJACENT NERN IA/SWRN WI. WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 25/05Z WHEN WW 743 AND 745 ARE SET TO EXPIRE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORM REDEVELOPMENT CONTINUING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA/SWRN WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND SURFACE DATA REVEAL A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS ISENTROPICALLY NEWD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM REDEVELOPMENT INVOF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH W-E MOVEMENT OF STORMS INITIATING ALONG W-E BOUNDARY AND PERSISTENT FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE SW FUELING THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44029154 43918987 42618897 42038937 43009199 43269423 42929584 43219643 44249642 45079584 45059379 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 07:25:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 03:25:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250727 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...CNTRL/SRN WI...NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 747... VALID 250727Z - 250930Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN IA AND SWRN WI THROUGH EARLY MORNING. 07Z SFC-MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004 MB LOW OVER NWRN IA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NWRN KS. OUTFLOW ENHANCED FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS KDBQ TO KORD. A 45 KT H925-H85 SWLY LLJ...ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE SCALE WAVE OVER MN...WAS IMPINGING ON THE FRONT. ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION WERE CENTERED OVER NERN IA AND SWRN WI WHERE STRONGEST TSTMS HAVE BEEN THRIVING. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS STORMS BACKBUILD...THEN TRACK ESEWD IN A TRAINING FASHION. STRONGEST TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH 10Z. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION AFTER 09Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE QUICKLY TRANSLATES TOWARD THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT TOWARD THE KDBQ AREA AND COULD EXPAND EWD THROUGH SRN WI. THOUGH ISOLD LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS FARTHER N...GENERALLY THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY STORMS FARTHER TO THE S. ..RACY.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44639254 44408981 43648878 42898872 42668913 42569001 42459086 43119322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 10:03:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 06:03:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251005 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-251100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SRN/WRN WI AND NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 251005Z - 251100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747 WILL EXPIRE AT 11Z. VWP/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO A MORE WLY COMPONENT ACROSS IA. SUBSEQUENT SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WAS SUPPORTING STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SWRN WI. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS EXTREME SERN MN AND WCNTRL WI...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS MN. STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE SINCE 06Z...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TSTM CLUSTERS. PRIMARY ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SRN WI...ECNTRL IA AND NRN IL THROUGH 13Z. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE REGIONS GIVEN MARGINALITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43818922 42268850 41948957 41889031 42109221 44029199 44639166 44779020 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 15:03:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 11:03:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251505 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251505 NYZ000-NJZ000-251700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251505Z - 251700Z ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER NWRN-NRN PORTIONS NYC AREA...ON S EDGE OF LARGER BAND OF NON SVR CONVECTION. THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN LONG ISLAND AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND...SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LONG ISLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH ABOUT 1730Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NYC AREA THEN EWD OVER LONG ISLAND. FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD SLIGHTLY TOWARD LONG ISLAND SOUND...BUT SHOULD MOVE LITTLE ELSEWHERE BECAUSE OF REINFORCING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING STORMS OVER NYC AREA APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED NEARLY SFC-BASED PARCELS ALONG WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL LIFT AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. 12Z OKX RAOB NOT AVAILABLE...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG FOR SFC TEMPS MID 70S AND DEW POINTS MID 60S F. VWP MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED JFK SFC WINDS YIELDS 150 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH...MORE THAN RUC SOUNDING BUT STILL CONSTRAINED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. 45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO IS EVIDENT...FAVORING SOME STORM ROTATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX... 40467378 40627389 40827402 40957372 41107277 41027180 40857176 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 16:34:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 12:34:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251635 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LM...NWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251635Z - 251830Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED...AND PERHAPS INCREASE...AS PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER S-CENTRAL WI MOVE SEWD INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. TSTMS PRODUCED SUBSVR GUSTS OF 38 KT AT MSN...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW POOL WILL AID LIFT IN MODE OF SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND SFC WIND TRENDS INDICATE DIFFUSE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS PORTIONS RACINE/WALWORTH/JEFFERSON COUNTIES WI...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MESOLOW ANALYZED OVER SWRN LM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM CLUSTER AND ACT AS NRN BOUND FOR MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. BOUNDARY MAY REACH IL BORDER N ORD BEFORE TSTMS ARRIVE...WHILE SRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD/EXPAND SWD TOWARD I-90 IN NERN IL. INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SFC-BASED -- BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS AREAS SURROUNDING SRN LM. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER REACHES SFC FOR TEMPS 76-79 F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S...WHICH ARE BEING OBSERVED ATTM OVER PORTIONS NERN IL. FURTHER HEATING OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL IL AND NWRN INDIANA WILL BE TEMPERED BY AREAS OF CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE CORRIDOR -- FROM IL/WI BORDER N RFD ESEWD ACROSS CHI AREA -- SHOULD PERMIT TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO 80S WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION -- MANIFEST EITHER IN SUPERCELL OR BOW STRUCTURES. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX... 43158880 42948786 41968607 41358572 40848617 41228769 42348916 42868947 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 18:40:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 14:40:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251842 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA...EXTREME SRN WI...NRN IL...SRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251842Z - 252045Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING W OF SRN PORTION OF LM...TO EXTREME ERN IA. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN CORNER MN...COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS NERN/S-CENTRAL IA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OF LOW BECOMES OBSCURED WITH EWD EXTENT INTO OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN WI. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM LAKE COUNTY IL WNWWD ACROSS IOWA COUNTY WI. ON 18Z SFC MAP...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 20 NW BRL NEWD ACROSS CLINTON COUNTY IA TO GREEN COUNTY WI. W OF THAT LINE...SWLY SFC WINDS REDUCE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED SFC HEATING HAS PERSISTED IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREA FROM ERN IA EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IL...WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY 21Z. SVR POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL FARTHER E...TOWARD ALM...WHERE BUOYANCY WEAKENS. MOST FAVORABLE AREA THEREFORE IS BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CONFLUENCE LINE...ALM...AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LINE ANALYZED INVOF SRN EDGE OF WHITESIDE/LEE/DEKALB COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE DENSE ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED AND PERHAPS SVR ACTIVITY ARE GREATEST ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI BORDER COUNTIES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MRGL LARGELY BECAUSE OF WEAK WINDS AROUND 700 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43158880 42948786 42748760 41658742 41248759 40918843 41268952 41679085 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 21:13:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 17:13:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252115 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252115Z - 252215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER NRN OK...AND CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE INVOF FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 38630099 39949567 39099472 37859463 36759481 36509683 36419833 36460003 36820148 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 22:46:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 18:46:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252248 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252248Z - 260015Z STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WASATCH...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL UT. NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE OVER THE WASATCH AND INTO SWRN WY/NWRN CO...AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN UT. LARGE-SCALE UVV CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN NV. WITH 40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VWPS...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY FAIRLY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OBSERVED ATTM/. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 41101103 41840749 40320652 38900878 38011106 38121263 38691316 39551353 40211304 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 22:57:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 18:57:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252258 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/PARTS OF NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252258Z - 260030Z SEVERE THREAT EVOLVING ACROSS NERN KS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN MO MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AROUND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS INDICATED ACROSS NERN KS AND ADJACENT NWRN MO NEAR AND JUST S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING WSW-ENE ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NERN KS -- IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR/JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...FAVORABLE VEERING -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND JUST N OF FRONT -- APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION. WITH STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS MODEST SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THREAT MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38619815 40059677 40239516 40289360 39159261 38589370 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 23:36:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 19:36:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252338 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-260145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...EXTREME E-CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252338Z - 260145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL AND INTO EXTREME E-CNTRL IA. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED TO FRONTAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 2330Z...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EWD INTO DEKALB COUNTY IL. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED FURTHER W INTO CLINTON COUNTY IA. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY TO S OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER S INTO CNTRL IL...DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS GREATER STABILIZATION FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ..GRAMS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 41428810 41538921 41719003 41859053 42139075 42389061 42558986 42538887 42378812 41988758 41378745 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 00:54:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 20:54:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260055 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AND CNTRL UT...FAR NWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 749... VALID 260055Z - 260230Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF WW 749...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUING ACROSS WRN PORTION OF WW. AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE WASATCH FRONT MAY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL REMAINS ACROSS NRN GRAND COUNTY UT. ADDITIONAL CELLS FURTHER NEWD INTO MOFFAT COUNTY CO MAY STILL PULSE UPWARD AND COULD POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT. WEAK INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON 00Z GJT SOUNDING SHOULD MITIGATE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS REMAINS AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL GROWTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALONG AND W OF THE WASATCH...ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH...DEVELOPING TOWERING CU/SMALL CBS /PER VIS IMAGERY/ IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE WW...IN SANPETE AND SEVIER COUNTIES...MAY YET INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... 39800749 39150861 38500905 38551262 39341217 40381218 41011098 40980734 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 03:01:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 23:01:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260302 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-260430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS/WRN MO/NRN OK/NRN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748...750... VALID 260302Z - 260430Z WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREAS -- PARTICULARLY OVER NERN KS. EVENING TOPEKA KS RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION...WITH 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE STILL IN PLACE OVER ERN KS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MOST INTENSE STORMS REMAIN ACROSS NERN KS ATTM...WITH SEVERAL ROTATING UPDRAFTS/LARGE VIL CORES INDICATED BY AREA RADARS. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING ACROSS SERN KS...EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KS. EWD EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXTENDS SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL KS AND INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. A FURTHER EXPANSION IN STORM COVERAGE OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN KS/FAR NRN OK IS EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ..GOSS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36770191 38029803 40159665 39969412 38629386 36469536 35870118 36140214 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 16:00:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 12:00:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261555 MIZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261555Z - 261800Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS EXPANDING ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL LM...WITH NRN PORTION MOVING INLAND BETWEEN TVC-MBL. REMAINDER OF THIS ACTIVITY -- AS WELL AS MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN LM AND I-75 -- WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSING AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS. EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS WILL POSE MOST CONCENTRATED WIND THREAT. DIFFUSE AND DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED. SRN PORTION EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OH AND NERN INDIANA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ACROSS EXTREME SRN LM. NRN FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DTW AREA NWWD THROUGH LDM AND OVER N-CENTRAL LM...THEN WWD TO WEAK LOW OVER NERN WI. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INVOF WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. SFC FLOW INVOF NRN WARM FRONT IS RELATIVELY BACKED WITH ENOUGH ELY COMPONENT TO FAVORABLY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED APX VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH FOR STORMS MOVING DUE E IN THIS REGIME. ..THOUGH AIR MASS NE OF NRN WARM FRONT BECOMES TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED TSTMS. ALTHOUGH VIS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT RATE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION...LIFTED PARCELS ALONG AND S OF NRN WARM FRONT MAY BE ROOTED NEAR SFC ALREADY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVED LOW 70S F SFC TEMPS AND 70 F DEW POINT YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...WITH VERY WEAK CINH AND EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTED AT GROUND LEVEL. THIS INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MOVING OFF ERN LM MAY BECOME SFC BASED RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MOVING INLAND...IF NOT ALREADY SO. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW DIURNAL HEATING. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44048403 43788485 43898642 44098708 44578638 45438506 45608455 45288379 44418370  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 18:42:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 14:42:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261843 WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO...SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261843Z - 262045Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE E/SE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO AND SWRN WY. THE INTENSITY OF THESE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN AREAS WHERE ROBUST SOLAR HEATING OCCURS IN CONJUCTION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED AROUND 100 TO 150 KM SE OF THE MID/UPPER-LOW CENTER...MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE E-CNTRL/SERN VALLEYS OF UT AND W-CNTRL VALLEYS OF CO. GJT VAD PROFILER SAMPLES THIS CURRENTLY...WITH 50 KTS OF SWLY FLOW AT 6 KM. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MOST LIKELY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CAN REMAIN LARGE. ..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 39811159 40731124 41511019 41720929 41680805 41200737 40070738 38540751 37750773 37360835 37050936 37221069 37721162 38401175 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 20:06:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 16:06:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262007 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-262130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...SWRN/CENTRAL/NERN OK...SERN KS.THE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262007Z - 262130Z POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING OVER BROAD SWATH OF SRN PLAINS FROM NW TX TO NERN OK...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS SERN KS. WW LIKELY OVER SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF MKC...WITH STATIONARY FRONT SWWD ACROSS BUTLER COUNTY KS TO DEWEY COUNTY OK. BAROCLINIC ZONE IS STRONGER FARTHER SW OVER EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK AND SRN TX PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY FROM BECKHAM COUNTY OK PAST LBB... BECAUSE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THAT SEGMENT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AS A COLD FRONT ATTM BUT MAY STALL TEMPORARILY FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...WEAK HEAT LOW IS EVIDENT ABOUT 35 SW FSI...WITH SFC TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS KINGFISHER AND OSAGE COUNTIES OK...AND SWWD THROUGH MAF AREA. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL AR WNWWD ACROSS OKMULGEE COUNTY OK...INTERSECTING TROUGH OVER KINGFISHER COUNTY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN/ERN OK. VIS/REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND VISUAL OBSERVATION SHOWS VIGOROUS YOUNG CB NEAR THAT INTERSECTION AS OF 1945Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND BETWEEN TROUGH AND FRONT...THROUGH 23Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT STRONGLY AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION E OF FRONT...WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND HIGH STORM BASES LIKELY DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSOLATION AND MID-60S/LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND MORE WEAKENING OF CINH. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL...EVEN AS FAR S AS W-CENTRAL/NW TX WHERE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK. ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED OVER OK AND SERN KS INVOF FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS WILL AID STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32460261 34610125 37269742 37689608 36849596 36079566 35569461 34739514 34649696 32809863 32100150 32330228 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 22:46:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 18:46:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262247 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SRN WY...WRN AND CNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 262247Z - 270015Z OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL HELP STABILIZE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN POCKETS OF UNUSED INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS CO. PORTIONS OF THE WW IN ERN UT MAY BE CLEARED EARLY...AS ADDITIONAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY. NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SEVERE...HAVE GENERALLY TRANSITIONED FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS INTO VARIOUS MULTICELLULAR BANDS ACROSS THE WW. WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO. GJT VAD PROFILER HAS INDICATED WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF ERN UT. CONTINUED DRYING IN THE SRN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AS WELL AS STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF ERN UT. E OF THE WW...SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL DEVELOPED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DENVER AND COLORADO SPRINGS. THESE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER AROUND I-70 IN FAR ERN ARAPAHOE AND ERN ELBERT COUNTIES. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED FURTHER E...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. ..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 41560509 40390416 39830353 38800395 37730520 37210684 37070897 37681038 38511109 40191115 41121048 41610913 41790771 41850631 41750541 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 23:40:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 19:40:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262341 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN OK/SE KS/SW MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752... VALID 262341Z - 270115Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN WW 752. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR EXPECTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SW OK TO NERN OK /OSAGE COUNTY/ AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE KS THIS EVENING AS SLOW STORM MOTION GENERALLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT RESULTS IN TRAINING OF STORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION AND NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES PRODUCT FOR THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NW TX NEWD ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL AND NE OK TO SERN KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER NE/CENTRAL OK EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF BVO TO 10 S CQB AND THEN WSWWD TO JUST N OF CHK AND INTERSECTED THE COLD FRONT IN WRN CADDO COUNTY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW/GUST FRONT AS BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES MOVE SEWD...WITH ACTIVITY THEN TENDING TO TRAIN NEWD IN WAKE OF OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING E ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38019673 37999381 36499412 35489538 34889660 34619768 34319864 34389940 34279994 35319954 36059933 37099778 38019706 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 00:46:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 20:46:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270048 MIZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270048Z - 270115Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT WW NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SANILAC COUNTY WSWWD TO ALONG THE BORDER OF GRATIOT/CLINTON COUNTIES IN SERN-SERN LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SMALL SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LOW LCLS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY. THUS...WW IS NOT EXPECTED... BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43188489 43288367 43738258 42938230 42178283 41748338 41848433 42558504 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 01:05:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 21:05:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270106 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-270130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270106Z - 270130Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IND AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF WRN OH. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN IL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IND DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WAA HAS INCREASED ALONG AXIS OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. WSR-88D VAD AT IND AND WIND PROFILER IN NW IND HAVE SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED AND STRENGTHENED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN MCV NOW LOCATED OVER IL. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG LLJ WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM IND INTO WRN OH. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST ROTATING STORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AS HAVE BEEN INDICATE ALREADY PER RECENT IND WSR-88D VOLUME SCANS. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 39738762 40768741 41398702 41418494 40788430 39268447 38678532 38528690 38838776 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 02:44:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 22:44:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270246 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TO NE OK/SE KS/SW MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752... VALID 270246Z - 270415Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 752...BUT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NE OK INTO PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO ERN KS/NERN OK WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT SUPPORTING STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 752 OVER NERN OK AND FAR SERN KS. AIR MASS ACROSS NERN OK TO SWRN MO REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 35 KT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS NERN PART OF WW 752. MEANWHILE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SW TO NE OK. FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION AND NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES STATEMENT FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37989409 36599406 35389534 34899664 34519787 34279896 34519970 35069988 36149929 36959791 37389661 38039565 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 04:46:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 00:46:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270447 OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753... VALID 270447Z - 270615Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WW. RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WW 753 ATTM...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS IL ATTM. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SRN INDIANA...ALTHOUGH STORMS REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE. SOME VEERING PERSISTS WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE PERSISTING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX... 40958615 40978499 40068476 38648505 38578681 38708756 39288756 39948665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 05:42:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 01:42:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270543 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IND INTO SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 270543Z - 270715Z A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NERN IND EARLY THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SWLY 25-30 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WAS SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS FROM NRN/WRN OH SWWD INTO SWRN IND. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SRN IND INTO SWRN OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WAS THE GREATEST. THE KINEMATIC SET-UP FEATURING A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ALIGNED WITH THE GEOMETRY OF THE PCPN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT TRAINING OF TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN IND. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN OH AND THE CONCURRENT RELAXATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE REDUCED EARLY THIS MORNING. ..RACY.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 38828705 40218549 40448445 39988381 39288399 38808491 38398706 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 17:12:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 13:12:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271713 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-271915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR...S-CENTRAL/SERN MO...NWRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271713Z - 271915Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR IS INCREASING FROM OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. BAND OF TSTMS GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS WRN OZARKS OF AR/MO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO DESTABILIZING AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT IDEAL FOR INTENSE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN INFLOW LAYER WILL BOOST BOTH BUOYANCY AND DCAPE...AND MAY AID POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS. SFC TEMPS MID-80S/LOW-90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...WILL OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG AND SBCAPES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG IN SUPPORT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AHEAD OF THIS BAND AS WELL...IN PRONOUNCED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM BMG...EVV...CGI...25 S TBN...SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS DISCRETE/MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AMBIENT WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOWER AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...KEEPING VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES SMALL. ..EDWARDS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37339337 37569145 37868968 38478705 37718700 36908842 36669029 36459123 35379245 35409387 35369445 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 19:11:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 15:11:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271911 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN PA...SERN INDIANA...CENTRAL/SRN OH...CENTRAL THROUGH NERN KY...NRN THROUGH WRN WV. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271911Z - 272115Z STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SDF-PIT...EVENTUALLY INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND NERN KY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS GRADUALLY ARE INCREASING IN STRENGTH ACROSS THIS REGION AS INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE HEATED/UNSTABLE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MRGL FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH SOME ROTATION AND RELATED ENHANCEMENT TO HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP. WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL TO GENERATE VERY LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN CONCERN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN OH AND CENTRAL INDIANA...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE LINE FROM E-CENTRAL OH SWWD THROUGH CVG/EVV AREAS...AND DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NEWD OVER EXTREME ERN OH...EXTREME SWRN PA AND NRN MD. S OF WARM FRONT AND CONVERGENCE BAND...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S-MID 70S F AND SFC HEATING WILL OFFSET NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES INVOF OH RIVER...WITH SLIGHT INCREASING TREND SWWD. BY CONTRAST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL DIMINISH SWWD WITH DISTANCE FROM GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH SERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO IS LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR AROUND 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...FOR ANY CELLS SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL SEWD/RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 37098583 39358590 41078005 38917990 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 19:19:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 15:19:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271920 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN KS...WRN PANHANDLES OF OK AND TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271920Z - 272115Z THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES SE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR CYS. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SWD IN ERN CO INTO NERN NM/OK AND TX PANHANDLES IN VICINITY OF A MESOLOW NEAR SPD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG SPEED SHEAR. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN CO/WRN NEB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. TO THE S OF THIS CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO A N/S ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO AND MESOLOW IN SERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION ALONG THE CO/NM/OK BORDER. MODIFIED MORNING RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. GDA WIND PROFILER INDICATES GOOD MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH 50 KTS OF WLY FLOW AT 6 KM. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-1 KM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A KEY MITIGATING FACTOR. ..GRAMS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37300417 37750350 38140332 39190328 39950255 40190191 39240144 38000080 37070096 35930174 35380262 35290413 35990476 36980464 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 23:28:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 19:28:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272329 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SWRN NEB...WRN KS...NERN NM...WRN PANHANDLES OF TX AND OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754... VALID 272329Z - 280100Z LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS UNLIKELY FURTHER E OF CURRENT WW...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS...MUCH OF CO MAY BE CLEARED FROM THE WATCH BY 00Z. ONGOING STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THESE TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVES E INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS. FURTHER W...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR SNY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL DRYING UNDER NW WINDS EVIDENT N OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. TSTMS ACROSS NERN NM/FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOW. CONVERGENCE INTO THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER ISOLATED HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40509900 39839884 38389970 37160044 36250102 35480180 35410367 35730472 36950462 38180363 39540281 40780277 41250211 41180031 41089949 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 03:00:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Aug 2006 23:00:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300302 FLZ000-300500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758... VALID 300302Z - 300500Z WW 758 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. WW RE-ISSUANCE BEYOND 06Z APPEARS UNLIKELY UNLESS MESOSCALE CONDITIONS UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. LATE THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS JUST N OF THE CNTRL FL KEYS AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE NWWD TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOW ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS E OF THE CENTER ABOUT 20 MILES OFF THE SERN FL COAST. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING WNWWD. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE ALONG THE SERN FL COAST WITH DEEP ELY FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM AND MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME SERN COAST OF FL AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NWWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WELL E OF THE CENTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. ..DIAL.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... 25148038 25548086 26368139 27448084 27247989 25467964 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 16:55:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 12:55:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301657 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-301900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NC...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301657Z - 301900Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NC AND WRN SC OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN WRN NC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE VA-NC STATE-LINE AND SWWD ACROSS WRN SC INTO NRN GA. DESTABILIZATION HAS QUICKLY OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN NC AND NRN SC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IS MOVING NNEWD INTO WRN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING IN SRN NC AND IN THE MTNS IN WRN NC AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE WEAKENING CAP AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN NC SHOW STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 35127646 34817785 34687994 34428061 33678149 34238258 34598272 35208240 36058153 36258046 36527818 36607689 36237632 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 17:28:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 13:28:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301730 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN AL...ERN AND SRN MS...SERN LA...FAR WRN GA...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 301730Z - 302000Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2.00 INCHES PER GPS SENSORS AND MORNING SOUNDINGS....WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG OVER SRN MS/AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS STORMS TO FORM...WITH A FEW OF THEM PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY AID IN SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. ..JEWELL.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29918939 30449108 31039050 32748919 33508784 33358584 32798458 32328452 31528460 30358487 29638511 30278605 30378691 30198805 30128910 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 20:39:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 16:39:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302041 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...SERN MT...FAR WRN NEB...EXTREME ERN WY AND SWRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 302041Z - 302315Z ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND WILL MOVE EWD WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TOWERING CU NOW DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. TO THE EAST...SLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS IS MAINTAINING 45-55 F DEWPOINTS E OF DRYLINE. A FEW STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AS LOW LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG WRN DAKOTAS BORDER AREA...AND A WEAK LEAD UPPER VORT MOVES EWD OUT OF CNTRL WY. INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE DRY MICRO BURST THREAT. STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE LOW END HAIL ONCE THEY INGEST MORE MOIST AIR E OF DRYLINE W/DEWPTS LOWER 50S F. HOWEVER...CAPPING INCREASES DRAMATICALLY INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS/NEB WHICH WILL LIMIT EWD THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW... 42480236 41280298 41640426 41990436 42230429 42680422 43400384 43830413 44370458 44980532 45400586 45940667 46290650 46890483 47200428 46990357 45470274 43690211 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 31 00:20:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 20:20:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310022 NCZ000-SCZ000-310115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC INT NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 759... VALID 310022Z - 310115Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01-02Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. AS OF 0015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR RDU TO 35 W FLO WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 255/20-25 KTS. 00Z MHX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS LIKELY WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASE. PRIOR TO THIS TIME...STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OWING TO DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 35127912 35547886 35827852 35987802 35837732 35207720 34077887 33768002 34058036 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 31 20:53:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 16:53:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312055 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 312055Z - 312300Z STORMS WILL FORM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU OVER ERN CO ALONG SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT AND ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE MAY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS CIN GETS ERASED WITH CONTINUED HEATING. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO. FARTHER E...CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NWRN OK...WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ARE BEING MAINTAINED BY BACKED SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WRN KS/OK INTO FAR ERN CO...PRODUCING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SVR UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISRUPT STORM STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS BRIEFLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE. LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 08/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 39540397 40210281 40200207 39510115 38850024 37769919 36609891 36419903 36519967 37220083 38130343 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 31 21:48:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 17:48:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312150 NCZ000-312315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 312150Z - 312315Z SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING NWD ALONG FAR ERN NC. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 2135Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 65 SSE CRE. MEANWHILE BUOY DATA AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF THIS CIRCULATION NEWD BETWEEN SUT AND BUOY 41013. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING CONSIDERABLY TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NNEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY PIVOT NWWD...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS MOVING ONSHORE. THIS DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /REF. MHX/LTX VWPS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2/...INDICATES AN INCREASING THREAT OF SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... 33727853 34347829 34987764 35467663 35787585 35677545 35307532 34527633 33907743 33587815 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 01:47:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 21:47:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010147 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-010315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0847 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN/N-CENTRAL MN...WRN LS...NRN WI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 010147Z - 010315Z BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS WW AREA. ALTHOUGH SVR STILL MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...RISK SHOULD DIMINISH SUCH THAT ANOTHER WW PROBABLY WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. CURRENT WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. GUST FRONT HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MN ARROWHEAD AND ADJACENT LS WATERS...AND GENERAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY STABLE LAKE AIR AND OUTFLOW TO ITS S. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT WILL LINGER OVER SWRN PORTIONS WW AND EWD OVER ADJACENT AREAS NWRN WI...MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MRGL SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. SFC AIR MASS S OF LS HAS BEGUN TO COOL FROM LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND WELL-MIXED LAYER WILL PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS JUST OFF SFC. NEAR-SFC STABILIZATION SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRENGTH. STILL...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING...AND TRANSITION TOWARD ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL AND GUSTS...AS SBCINH INCREASES ALONG WITH DEPTH OF STABLE LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX... 45749451 46569288 47799010 47408943 46569025 45749125 45429277 45229433 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 03:13:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 23:13:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010313 NYZ000-010445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010313Z - 010445Z SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN ONT...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO MCS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. EARLIER/DIURNALLY AIDED ACTIVITY OVER SERN ONT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO WEAKER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS NRN NY. APPARENT SUPERCELL OVER SERN ONT MAY CROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER WITHIN NEXT HOUR INTO PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE/JEFFERSON COUNTIES AND MAY HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR ON AMERICAN SIDE OF BORDER THAN PRIOR ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER NW ALSO SHOULD PERSIST INTO NRN NY THEREAFTER. INCREASING AND SLGTLY VEERING LLJ...CONCURRENT WITH DECOUPLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER...WILL ADVECT MORE ROBUST MOISTURE FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONT INTO THIS REGION 1-3 KM AGL...BASED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND RUC/850 MB MOISTURE PROGS. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED BUF RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL COUNTERACT MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED -- I.E. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MOST PROBABLE CONVECTIVE TRACK APPEARS TO EXTEND SEWD ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TOWARD UCA-ALB AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44987494 43727384 42947360 42837459 43237550 44207640 44347591 44757546 44987502 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 06:59:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 02:59:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010659 NYZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 010659Z - 011000Z A PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BORDER SSEWD INTO NERN ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY. TRAINING OF CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND INDICATES THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WET MICROBURST TO OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RADAR/IR SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A NNW/SSE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITING COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST WITH GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.75-2.0 INCH RANGE WHICH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR...AND RADAR ALGORITHMS INDICATE PRECIPITATION RATES EXCEEDING 1.0-1.5 INCHES/HR WITHIN THE BAND ENTERING THE U.S. OVER EXTREME NERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NEAR MSS. DEEP LAYER WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGESTING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..WEISS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY... 44097464 44457511 44777534 44967482 44977408 44517388 44097391 44097424 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 10:02:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 06:02:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011003 VTZ000-NYZ000-011300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/EAST CENTRAL NY...SRN/WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 011003Z - 011300Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME EXTENDING FROM NERN INTO EAST CENTRAL NY...AS LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER WNWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WARM FRONT. GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER THIS REGION INDICATING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED GENERATION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...NEW CELLS ARE REDEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NRN FRANKLIN CNTY WHICH IS INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF REPEAT HEAVY RAINS SPREADING SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE FROM SRN ST LAWRENCE ACROSS EXTREME SRN FRANKLIN INTO SRN ESSEX CNTY MOVING SSEWD AT 25-30 KT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS /G35KT REPORTED AT SLK AT 0911Z/ INTO NRN PARTS OF HAMILTON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..WEISS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY... 44067457 44617473 45027451 45017408 44657361 43847275 43157269 42847316 42767401 43447459 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 17:05:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 13:05:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011706 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-011900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...PARTS OF NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011706Z - 011900Z AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA BY AROUND 21Z. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WEST OF RETREATING/ERODING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IS VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. AND...UNINHIBITED INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY STRONGER CAP BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAKER CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DEEPENING/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE SHEARED REGIME BENEATH 30-35 NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ..KERR.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 44517388 44297288 43877270 43027253 42907176 41927122 41327207 40667377 40457446 40937545 41687507 41987467 42567430 43627424 44027415 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 17:40:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 13:40:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011741 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-011945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011741Z - 011945Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND APPROACH AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z...WHEN A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT/RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL /MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY ALREADY BE INITIATING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND MAY NOT AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NEW DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT COULD SPREAD INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/WEST OF OUTFLOW IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV... 46757950 47827693 47417381 46047059 45357024 44537047 44277107 44317208 44437271 44687343 45117443 45837695 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 18:41:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 14:41:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011842 MIZ000-WIZ000-012045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011842Z - 012045Z ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI WILL LIKELY BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE NEXT HR. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN WI IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI /NEAR APN TO JUST SOUTH OF TVC/. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI /JUST NORTH OF THE DELLS/. THE AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MARGINAL /20-25 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZED LINEAR WIND DMGG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF MCV OVER NRN IA MAY AID IN FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO CENTRAL/ECENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEREFORE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. IF PRIOR TO 20Z...A WW WOULD BE ISSUED BY AFWA /AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY/. ..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX... 45238386 44758658 44589037 43949047 43199030 43018912 43628632 44298373 44658292 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 19:49:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 15:49:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011948 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011948Z - 012145Z CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR A WW BEFORE 22Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SFC LOW CENTER NEAR LEXINGTON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NCENTRAL KS AND NEWD INTO FAR NWRN IA/SERN SD. HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT /95-100 DEG F/ HAS SUPPORTED DECREASING CINH OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENT BY THE MDT CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OTHER RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD OVERCOME THE REMAINING CINH AND SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /INITIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/ IN THE NEXT 1-3 FEW HRS. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 25-35 KT LOW-MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 42039853 41689935 41130017 40340023 39999955 40469817 41299690 41719606 42059556 42489560 42849581 42949639 42549765 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 20:22:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 16:22:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012021 NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR HUDSON VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665... VALID 012021Z - 012145Z CONTINUE WW. CAP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...BUT WEAKNESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. THIS INCLUDES EVOLVING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL NOW PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THROUGH 21-23Z...SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW CONFIGURATION SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT FURTHER GROWTH OF CLUSTER. AND...GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES... DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPANDING SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT. ..KERR.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 42607424 42877327 42667290 41927260 40867289 40757320 40527361 40597415 40817460 41347498 42137466 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 1 23:48:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 19:48:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012348 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN MAINE...EXTREME NRN PORTIONS NH/VT. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012348Z - 020215Z SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION AFFECT AREA. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY JUST N OF QUE BORDER...MOVING SEWD INTO PORTIONS FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES MAINE. TSTMS ARE FORMING/STRENGTHENING ALONG AND NE OF SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM NEAR PWM NNWWD ACROSS NERN CORNER MAINE TO VICINITY MONTREAL. VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS EVIDENT ALONG AND W OF FRONT...WITH SFC TEMPS 80S F AND DEW POINTS 70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY NEWD FROM FRONT...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER STILL MAY REACH SFC...AND THAT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND TO GROUND LEVEL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS COMMONLY 50-60 KT. UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN QUE...ARE FCST TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 6Z. ASSOCIATED ASCENT IS SUPPORTING GROWING MCS NOW ANCHORED ABOUT 70-80 NM N OF NY/QUE BORDER AND EXTENDING NEWD FROM THERE. FCST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF INFLOW LAYER ACROSS SERN QUE AND NRN VT/NH/MAINE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD AND REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL...BEGINNING AS SOON AS ABOUT 3Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAN FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS IN SUPPORT OF SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...WHAT MAY BE EVEN BETTER ORGANIZED THAN TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO NRN MAINE. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 47446904 46826907 46046872 45026924 44397111 44997347 45067149 45247147 45307129 45257114 45367102 45207086 45457081 45427066 45647070 45767039 46137026 46217031 46447005 46697002 47486917 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 00:00:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 20:00:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020000 NYZ000-020100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY...LONG ISLAND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665... VALID 020000Z - 020100Z CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION WAS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC HEATING SW OF NEW ENGLAND SFC WARM FRONT. LAST FEW REMAINING TSTMS ACROSS REGION HAVE PRODUCED GUST FRONTS THAT SURGED WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WITH PARENT CELLS DISSIPATING. AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE...PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MARKEDLY. THEREFORE REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 1Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX... 40487370 40687384 40987362 41007279 40827243 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 00:17:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 20:17:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020017 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NEB...WRN/NRN IA...FAR SERN SD AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666... VALID 020017Z - 020215Z CLUSTER OF STG-SVR STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA /ERN PORTIONS OF WW 666/ OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SVR THREAT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REMAINDER OF NRN IA/SRN MN. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA MOVING NEWD AROUND 30 KTS SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL JET /30-35 KTS PER REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REMAINDER OF NRN IA INTO SCENTRAL MN WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING THE DMGG WIND THREAT MAY THEREFORE REMAIN MOSTLY MARGINAL AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF WW 666. ANOTHER WW EAST OF WW 666 IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET THE WEAKER LAPSE RATES GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY/WIND FIELDS. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT EAST OF WW 666...STORM MOTIONS/BNDRY ORIENTATION ALONG WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL OVER SRN MN/NRN IA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41729960 39879963 41859573 42499377 42609163 43629092 44179141 44159497 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 02:47:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 01 Aug 2006 22:47:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020247 MIZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN LOWER MI...NWRN LH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020247Z - 020445Z NARROW MCS IS EVOLVING FROM RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND SEGMENTED CONVECTIVE MODES...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL/NERN PORTIONS LOWER MI...THEN OVER ADJACENT LH WATERS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS -- CAPABLE OF DMG TO WEAK STRUCTURES AND VEGETATION. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BOW/LEWP SHAPED SEGMENTS WHEE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE GUSTS IS MOST PROBABLE. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE SFC WITH WEAK SPEED SHEAR. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO ANY ACTIVITY ORIENTED NEARLY N-S...SUCH AS THAT APCHG I-75 CORRIDOR N HTL AS OF 220Z. MODIFIED APX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS 2500-3000 MUCAPE BUT MLCAPES DROPPING UNDER 1000 J/KG...AS SBCINH INCREASES. THERMODYAMICS ABOVE SFC WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH PRONOUNCED MOIST AXES EVIDENT ACROSS LOWER MI IN 00Z 925...850 AND 700 MB RAOB CHARTS. ALTHOUGH BOTTOM PORTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SFC AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY STABILIZING FROM DIABATIC COOLING...STABLE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW WITH EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AT OR VERY NEARLY SFC-BASED. THIS MAY PERMIT GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SVR CRITERIA -- BUT SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR DMG -- TO PENETRATE TO SFC IN MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 43668652 44308623 44588554 44898518 45108529 45278492 45438477 45648468 45718327 45128271 44458328 43848478 43428608 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 04:10:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:10:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020411 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-020545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MAINE...NRN NH...NRN VT. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668... VALID 020411Z - 020545Z NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL WEAKENING TENDENCY IS UNDERWAY. OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE REMAINING PORTION OF MCS -- MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS REGION FROM ERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY SWWD TOWARD AUG. FARTHER SE THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO AREA OF STRONGER STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER MARINE LAYER. FARTHER W...ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH OVERALL SVR THREAT RATHER ISOLATED/MRGL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH WRN MAINE...AND ALL BUT SRN PORTIONS VT/NH. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD ATOP OUTFLOW AIR MASS WITH ASSOCIATED MITIGATION OF SVR WIND POTENTIAL. WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM NW-SE BEHIND PRIMARY MCS ACROSS MOST OF MAIN AND NH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AS ANTICIPATED...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 6Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44737258 44477115 44956969 46256821 47076780 45666783 45586736 45176743 45166714 44806694 44376809 43786994 43607021 42887082 42767109 42787136 43177191 43337324 43787335 43747403 44067433 44447389 45007400 45007339 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 04:51:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:51:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020451 IAZ000-020545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN IA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 667... VALID 020451Z - 020545Z BULK OF MCS HAS MOVED THROUGH WW WITH OCCASIONAL SVR GUSTS MEASURED AND SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND REPORTS. THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALONG SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN WW FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...AND SWD TO AREAS NW OF A ALO-DSM LINE THROUGH AROUND 8Z. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND FAVORABLY BUOYANT...ESPECIALLY FOR PARCELS ROOTED ABOVE SFC...I.E. ELEVATED MUCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GUST FRONTS CONTINUE TO SURGE AHEAD OS STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES...AND DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY STATICALLY STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. THEREFORE EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC. WW MAY BE CLEARED/CANCELED BEHIND BULK OF MCS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN IA...BEFORE SCHEDULED 6Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX... 41929503 43329427 43469208 42709227 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 06:16:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 02:16:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020616 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020616Z - 020815Z TWO BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING ENEWD 45-50 KT ACROSS NERN IA AND WRN WI. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING ALONG/JUST NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER...RAPID STORM MOTION AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..WEISS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43148749 42908951 42559107 42589217 43049244 43419205 43789073 43938918 44148758 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 09:58:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 05:58:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020959 MIZ000-021200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020959Z - 021200Z RAPIDLY MOVING LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 12Z. MARGINAL HAIL AND POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A BOWING SEGMENT MOVING EWD AT GREATER THAN 50 KT APPROACHING LEELANAU COUNTRY IN NWRN LOWER MI. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER...AND WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THE IMPACT OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BOWING SEGMENT PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS ACROSS LEELANAU CNTY AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY BY 10Z... CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM AND OTSEGO/SRN CHEBOYGAN CNTYS BY 11Z...AND MONTMORENCY/PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA CNTYS BEFORE 12Z. ..WEISS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 45138577 45468532 45598460 45598359 45268292 44728293 44338428 44288622 44348651 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 12:19:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 08:19:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021220 MIZ000-021345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...LAKE HURON CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 021220Z - 021345Z BOWING THUNDERSTORM LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 50 KT ACROSS NERN LOWER MI INTO NRN LAKE HURON. ALTHOUGH RADAR/IR SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...RAPID EWD TRANSLATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE INTO LAKE HURON. COUNTIES MAY BE REMOVED FROM THE WW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE...AND ENTIRE WW MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 14Z GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE LINE. ..WEISS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 44178430 44498422 44888357 45368335 45658353 45678330 45348251 44168224 44188325 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 15:00:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 11:00:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021501 MIZ000-021630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021501Z - 021630Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG WINDS IS ACCOMPANYING UPPER IMPULSE MIGRATING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH 50+ KT FLOW EVIDENT IN VAD WIND DATA AS LOW AS 3 KM AGL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDDAY...WHEN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HOUGHTON LAKE BY 17-18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL IN PROCESS OF RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS BASED IN DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ARE LIKELY. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE...BEFORE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44058374 43988463 43908547 44068613 44548608 45218497 45398436 45298329 44608273 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 15:43:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 11:43:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021544 NYZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN NEW YORK STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021544Z - 021745Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA BAY AREA APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING CREST OF EASTERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF INHIBITION ONGOING. THUS...AN EXPANDING/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN SEASONABLY STRONG MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS COLD POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43247868 43057724 43347566 44087419 44947438 45137650 44887799 44668038 43848088 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 17:42:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 13:42:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021742 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA...SRN WI/FAR NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021742Z - 021945Z ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IA ENEWD INTO SRN WI. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC WSWWD TO NEAR DBQ TO NEAR DSM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL HEATING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA. HOWEVER MODERATE CONVERGENCE /STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER NWRN IA/ MAY SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK CINH. FURTHER EAST...MUCH GREATER HEATING AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN SRN WI SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 20Z. OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /45-50 KTS/ WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES AND/OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44048773 43358921 42679116 42529204 41989322 41649320 41479291 41469275 41499170 41649029 42068926 42598842 43008793 43168776 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:08:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:08:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021809 MIZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 021809Z - 021945Z CONTINUE WW. MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION. INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628 44968627 AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. FURTHER NE...COPIOUS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CINH REMOVAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 21Z ALONG THE FRONT IN NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA ALSO SUPPORTING SOME DMGG WIND POTENTIAL IF STORMS DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 39429848 38849985 38160035 37940025 37759925 38139814 38739699 39159594 39949429 40489435 40969467 40889536 40199646 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:15:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:15:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021816 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-022015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN KS...FAR SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021816Z - 022015Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT HR...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO NCENTRAL KS BEFORE 20Z. FURTHER NE OVER FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LATER /AFTER 21Z/. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 20Z. LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN KS /NEAR DDC/. TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE EXISTS VERY LITTLE CINH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/NCENTRAL KS. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DDC TO SOUTH OF CONCORDIA WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO NCENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KTS FROM 2-6 KM PER PROFILER DATA/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. FURTHER NE...COPIOUS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CINH REMOVAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 21Z ALONG THE FRONT IN NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA ALSO SUPPORTING SOME DMGG WIND POTENTIAL IF STORMS DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40919456 40579552 39789717 39149942 38280035 37930031 37770003 37779986 37849886 38059751 38749618 39109577 39819446 40619409 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:16:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:16:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021817 MIZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 021817Z - 021945Z CONTINUE WW. MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION. INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628 44968627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 18:17:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:17:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021818 COR MIZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 021818Z - 021945Z CORRECTED DISCUSSION CONTINUE WW. MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM/GFS...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ...ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING INHIBITION. INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 20-21Z...AND SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELDS NEAR 70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45568500 45508355 44818268 43688302 43618482 44078628 44968627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 19:02:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 15:02:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021903 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-022030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 021903Z - 022030Z CONTINUE WW 671 AND WW 672. MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL THAT WHICH DEVELOPED IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OFF THE ADIRONDACKS IN PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-22Z... SOUTHEASTWARD INTO HOT MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE 20 TO 30 KT LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ROUNDING UPPER RIDGE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND COULD SUPPORT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43637989 43417749 43517587 43647425 44707299 45587288 45587117 44546865 43986925 42957069 41967175 41697368 42527557 43087985 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 21:52:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 17:52:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022153 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN MA/RI/PARTS OF CENTRAL-ERN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 022153Z - 022300Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD INTO NRN RI INCLUDING PROVIDENCE BY 22Z AND INTO PARTS OF THE BOSTON METRO... MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN METRO AND SWD THROUGH SERN MA BETWEEN 22-23Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN/SRN WORCESTER COUNTY MA...MOVING TO THE SE AT 30-35 KT. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE INTO SERN MA/RI AND CT IS HOT AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG. THIS AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 42097292 42137225 42497169 42697130 42597094 42386985 41827024 41487102 41597198 41677290 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 22:12:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 18:12:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022213 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... VALID 022213Z - 030015Z CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS /674/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO ECENTRAL/NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z FOR THE AREA. A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL KS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE SVR THREAT OUT OF WW 674 AND INTO ECENTRAL/NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB AROUND 00Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER GIVEN RECENT SAT/RADAR TRENDS OF MDT-TOWERING CU AND SMALL ECHOES OVER NERN KS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW /25-30 KTS/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO NWRN MO AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN IA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40429570 40019737 39639788 38919834 38509877 37209916 37069808 37979553 38939404 39539289 40279224 40919294 40969424 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 22:51:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 18:51:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022252 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... VALID 022252Z - 030045Z SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI /WW 673/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH DMGG WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW 673 MAY BE NECESSARY BY 01Z. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ BNDRY EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES TO THE NRN CHICAGO METRO AREA ENEWD TO FLINT MI. AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 673 INTO NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING/CONVERGENCE AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF WW 673. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 30-35 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL FLOW /PER RECENT PROFILER/VWP DATA/ AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT OVER NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43738976 43609071 42259082 41639018 41438904 41598736 41858495 42248339 42888265 43488224 44248243 44558357 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 23:08:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 19:08:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022309 OKZ000-TXZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...NERN TX AND ERN OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022309Z - 030115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA WAS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/. THUS ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER WITH WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH TIME...THE OVERALL THREAT IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... 36950082 36480155 35530166 35220130 35210070 35799921 36639873 36939879 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 23:24:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 19:24:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022325 NDZ000-030130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022325Z - 030130Z ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING /AROUND 02Z/. NO WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER....MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30-35 KTS/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BEFORE WEAKENING TRENDS ENSUE AROUND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48940192 48510225 48050190 47990059 48059887 48219817 48519793 48949813 49009859 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 2 23:29:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 19:29:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022330 MEZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672... VALID 022330Z - 030030Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ME. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE /35-45 MILES FROM THE ME COAST/...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL ME. AIR MASS ALONG AND OFF THE COAST REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHILE INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF ME...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ALSO...2.5 KM AGL WLY WIND OF 40-50 KT AT GRAY MAINE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...BEFORE ACTIVITY UNDERGOES FURTHER WEAKENING AS AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 42807077 43597008 44376978 45707035 46046994 45846841 45286801 44336796 43076824 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 00:48:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 20:48:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030049 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL NY AND VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 030049Z - 030115Z NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR NRN/PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND VT. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEVELOPED BOW ECHO OVER SERN ONTARIO MOVING EWD AT 60 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN ONTARIO REPORTING WINDS AOA 50 KT WITH THIS BOW. ADDITIONAL STRONG AND MORE DISCRETE STORMS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW WERE LOCATED 40-50 MILES WNW OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LEAD ACTIVITY AND THE BOW...IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AS WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 45-50 KT INTO NRN NY BY 06-09Z PER 21Z RUC/18Z NAM. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST INTO ERN NY AND VT MAY LIMIT THE EWD SEVERE THREAT...BUT GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF BOW WILL PLAN TO EXTEND NEW WW INTO PARTS OF VT. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 45087164 43247241 43087343 43237629 43387715 44987583 45147354 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 00:52:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 20:52:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030053 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...NRN MO AND SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...675... VALID 030053Z - 030300Z THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS WILL END ACROSS WW 674 WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO...ACROSS NERN AND SCENTRAL KS. THUS WW 674 SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR NERN KS/SERN NEB WILL MOVE ENEWD FROM 30-35 KTS INT0 FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH A CONTINUED PRIMARILY DMGG WIND THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES /3-4 MB PER 2 HR/ BEHIND A WELL ORGANIZED OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB. A COMPARISON OF THE 00Z TOP AND DVN SOUNDING REVEALS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE. GIVEN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THIS REGION AND SUPPORT OF COLD POOL AND INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...CONVECTIVE STRENGTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 675 ACROSS SWRN IA/NWRN MO. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO AREA AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT WW ISSUANCE SOUTH OF WW 675 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORECAST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40 KTS/ AND THE REMAINDER OF NRN MO/SRN IA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40939414 40499634 39539647 38679589 38889427 39909165 40469119 41139142 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 01:33:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 21:33:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030134 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MI...FAR NRN IN AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030134Z - 030300Z STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN MI ALONG FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STORMS AS THEY SHIFT SEWD. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SLIGHT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR IS PRODUCING 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2...SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS LIKELY WHICH MAY ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. GIVEN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42058689 42928297 42678268 41578344 41248509 41218699 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 03:23:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 23:23:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030324 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL NY AND NRN/CENTRAL VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677... VALID 030324Z - 030500Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 677. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE FAST MOVING BOW ECHO HAD WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS ERN PART OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BUT HAS SINCE RE-INTENSIFIED IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN HAMILTON COUNTY NY TO NERN WAYNE COUNTY NY. DESPITE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE SPEED OF THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT AT 40-50 KT SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE ESE. VAD DATA PER BUF AND BTV WSR-88DS SHOWED 40-50 KT EXTENDING DOWN TO AROUND 1 KM AGL WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43727676 44087556 45017460 44997154 43257247 43267325 42947332 42807481 42647600 42847665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 04:36:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 00:36:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030437 MOZ000-IAZ000-030500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN IA / NORTH CENTRAL-NERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675... VALID 030437Z - 030500Z WW 675 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE TOWARD SERN IA/ NERN MO AND WRN IL THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WINDS IS VERY LOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST HOUR AT SZL...CDJ AND LWD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS INDICATED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES ENE TOWARD WRN IL. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX... 39499404 39879378 40859380 41069391 41109309 41099248 40129233 39689241 39419302 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 10:33:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 06:33:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031033 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IN...SRN LAKE MI...SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 679... VALID 031033Z - 031230Z BOW SHAPED SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS NERN IL AT 40 KT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD PLACE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO SWRN LOWER MI AND PARTS OF NRN INDIANA BY 12-13Z. AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 679 IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RADAR SIGNATURES INDICATING SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL...WITH PERIODIC WEAK ECHO REGIONS EVIDENT SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF DESCENDING REAR INFLOW JET STRUCTURES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE LINE. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION OF DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND INTO SWRN LAKE MI AND EXTREME NWRN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN LAKE MI TOWARD SWRN LOWER MI...PERSISTENT 40-50 KT WESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT ON AREA VAD PROFILES AT 1-2 KM AGL SUGGEST CONTINUED DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM IS LIKELY WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THUS...AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 679 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..WEISS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42518689 43028608 43328516 43338452 42408425 41658448 40938592 40738691 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 14:58:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 10:58:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031500 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031459 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IND...N CNTRL OH...NRN PA/SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031459Z - 031630Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES /LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18-19Z...PROBABLY MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST OF BUFFALO NY INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF CLEVELAND OH. THOUGH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTIONS AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40458578 41258406 41738246 42238110 42477890 42487768 41777723 41367761 41007974 40298200 39578383 39558576 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 17:26:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 13:26:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031727 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...SE NY...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031727Z - 031930Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z...IF NOT SOONER...PROBABLY INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT...IT APPEARS WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING IS UNDERWAY...AND STRONG HEATING IS ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE POCONO AND CATSKILL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F...MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AFTER 21Z WITH THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EVOLVING NEAR THE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK BORDER. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD BE REACHED EARLIER...SUPPORTING INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 41997487 42467387 42497258 42657131 41997007 41277038 40697279 40567438 41147563 41787551 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 17:57:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 13:57:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031758 FLZ000-032000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 031758Z - 032000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED HIGHER SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF TIME AS THE TWO CONVECTIVE LINES/OUTFLOWS MERGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 60 NM EAST OF MIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MODERATE NLY UPPER FLOW /20-30 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT STORM TOP VENTILATION. IN ADDITION ...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED BY -9 DEG C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CORE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT GREATER UPDRAFT STRENGTH. RELATIVELY DEEP ELY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE PROPAGATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WELL INLAND THROUGH SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS SEA BREEZE FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER ERN LEE/WRN HENDRY...COLLIER AND NRN MONROE COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE SHEAR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25978028 26978023 27418069 27468129 27328186 27008200 26478190 26128162 25938145 25508101 25588066 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:20:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:20:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031821 OHZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683... VALID 031821Z - 031945Z CONTINUE WW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING INTO A GROWING CLUSTER IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. WEAK SHEAR HAS SLOWED ORGANIZATION...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES GENERATED BY INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL. AS THIS OCCURS...30 KT GENERAL EASTERLY STORM MOTION MAY ACCELERATE... ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SURGES THROUGH HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR OR ABOVE 90F. AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF DAYTON/COLUMBUS INTO MANSFIELD MAY BE IMPACTED BY 21Z. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40448410 40748375 40988277 40978123 40188106 39808264 39698379 39958422 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:47:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:47:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031847 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-032045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN VA...NERN TN AND WRN/CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 031847Z - 032045Z SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SCENTRAL VA. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VWP DATA FROM MORRISTOWN TN AND JACKSON KY INDICATE THAT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KTS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN RECENT NAM/RUC GUIDANCE VALUES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERAL MODESTLY ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN AND OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE DEVELOPING TSTM LINES WAS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING UP TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED HIGH LEVEL SSELY FLOW. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WWD MOVING ANVILS AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE LINES. THEREFORE DESPITE THE MARGINAL WIND FIELDS...THERE SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... 37527933 37648048 37378140 37248211 36658262 36308284 35498171 35318051 35267975 35527843 35687805 35807778 36777790 37007813 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:48:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:48:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031849 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682... VALID 031849Z - 032015Z CONTINUE WW. GROWING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING NEAR BINGHAMTON ...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF PITTSBURGH INTO THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF DAYTON OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD WITHIN 30 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND HEATED/MOIST WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOLS. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41428052 41597928 42257801 42207639 41517524 40517552 40327721 40268004 40618105 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 18:55:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 14:55:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031855 OKZ000-TXZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031855Z - 032130Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK WWD INTO FAR NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE. HVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WCENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLE A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT-TOWERING CU OVER SRN OK IN AN AIRMASS THAT WAS NEARLY UNCAPPED AND WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMA ESEWD TO NEAR CDS AND ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM AMA EWD TO NEAR OKC. INSPECTION OF AREA VWPS/PROFILER DATA SHOWS AROUND 20 KTS OF MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW...SO STORMS MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT /95-103 F/ COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED FRONTOGENETIC INFLUENCE OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS NRN OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG OTHER WEAKER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO SVR POTENTIAL...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE/WRN OK...DUE TO BACKED LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW...ALONG WITH W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES /1.7 INCHES AT AMA/ WILL SUPPORT A HVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35780281 35210293 34240178 34010054 33959978 33939853 34039732 34219679 34489582 34809511 35189514 35519571 35499655 35579692 35579786 35849914 36160232 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 19:25:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 15:25:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031926 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...NWRN TN...FAR WRN KY/FAR SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031926Z - 032130Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN AR ENEWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES...REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20-25 KTS OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A BNDRY THAT DEVELOPED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FYV ENEWD TO NEAR CGI. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION/BNDRY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT SEVERAL WEAKLY ORGANIZED BANDS OF MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z OVER NRN AR AND SERN MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD AROUND 15 KTS TOWARD EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY AND NWRN TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36109312 35649417 35289415 34679391 35249151 35938952 36258862 36768820 37388860 37378937 37059019 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 20:06:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 16:06:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032006 RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...NRN NJ...SE NY...LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 032006Z - 032130Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS PEAKING...WITH TEMPERATURES LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 100F IN URBAN AREAS. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO THE SOUTH OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WHICH HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF BOSTON...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THE POCONOS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW YORK CITY...AND SURFACE COLD POOL SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING WITH UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 22-23Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALL APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41957577 42137469 42067403 42007325 41897197 41307147 40857218 40647330 40647417 40507468 40497571 40817645 41347588 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 21:58:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 17:58:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032159 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL IND...SRN IL...SWRN OH AND FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032159Z - 040000Z TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO POSE SVR WIND THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN IL...CENTRAL/SRN IND IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN OH INTO SERN IND. ADDITIONAL STG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HR OVER CENTRAL IND AND PORTIONS OF SRN IL ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AIRMASS WAS MOST UNSTABLE OVER SRN IND AND FAR NRN KY/SWRN OH...MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG...WHERE AMPLE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS REDUCED HEATING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT /MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/. DESPITE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY...SLIGHTLY GREATER FORCING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL/IND AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER SRN IL/CENTRAL IND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...IT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM IF CONVECTION IN EITHER AREA CAN GROW UPSCALE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 40028514 39818641 39688699 38768886 38338912 38148890 37938803 37648653 37858558 38298449 38908413 39448411 39888448 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 22:21:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 18:21:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032222 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN OH/WRN-SWRN OH/NRN WV/FAR WRN MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 682...683... VALID 032222Z - 032345Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO PARTS OF NRN WV AND FAR WRN MD PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NOBLE TO HOCKING COUNTIES OH WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE SE AT 20 KT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUSTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A MODEST SWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW FLANK OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY MCS. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE SSE OF WW/S 682/683 AWAY FROM STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES. FARTHER TO THE NE...THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED EWD INTO WRN PA WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...GIVEN THE MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ALLEGHENY FRONT IN WRN PA SWWD TO CENTRAL/ERN WV. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39498314 39798294 40308168 41668071 41817984 41587847 40367856 39747885 39137920 38398033 38218144 38538230 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 23:18:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 19:18:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032318 OKZ000-TXZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN AND ERN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 032318Z - 040115Z CLUSTER OF MARGINALLY SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER 01Z. LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/SCENTRAL OK. GIVEN THE RELATIVE MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF OK BEGINNING BY 01Z...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER-MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND MUCH OF ERN OK. RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CINH OVER NRN OK...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING NWD THROUGH WCENTRAL OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND SOME SVR WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF NRN OK. ISOLATED SVR WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ECENTRAL OK. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...NWD STORM MVMNT INTO MORE STABLE AIR ALONG THE KS BORDER AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY UNDERCUTTING MOST NEW CONVECTION IN SRN OK...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BEGINNING BY 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 36699835 36869975 36490097 36230103 35860085 34960029 34619988 34639884 34569797 34459703 34959582 35429539 36089610 36359739 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 3 23:35:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 19:35:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032335 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 032335Z - 040030Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN-SERN CT...SRN RI...SERN MA...MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND NERN NJ THROUGH 01-02Z. SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ALONG THE RI/SERN CT COAST TO A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CT AT THIS TIME...WHILE A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD TO ERN LONG ISLAND AND WWD ALONG LONG ISLAND TO NRN NJ. MEANWHILE...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SWWD THROUGH ERN MA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM NEAR 25 N ORH TO 15 SSE EWB. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SERN CT IN MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS W OF THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NJ REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 35 KT SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE SERN CT ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN RI TO OFF THE SERN MA COAST. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41027611 41367484 41297372 41657265 41847210 41877053 40577067 40217358 39967504 40137609 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 01:35:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 21:35:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040135 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NRN-CENTRAL NJ TO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684... VALID 040135Z - 040200Z WW 684 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL-SERN PA INTO CENTRAL NJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH CENTRAL NJ/SERN PA...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE NJ COAST AT 50 E NEL TO APPROXIMATELY 30 SE CXY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO NJ ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS YET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...GIVEN LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THUS INCREASING SURFACE BASED CINH...WILL ALLOW WW 684 TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. ..PETERS.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40377392 39937518 40237607 40577613 40927592 41237513 41307391 41527302 41597181 41497107 41137068 40637081 40227330 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 16:52:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 12:52:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041653 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041653Z - 041830Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL AND SRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS NCNTRL FL ATTM. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AIDING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SFC DATA SHOWS DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70 TO 75 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM SE GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP FROM TALLAHASSEE SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY FROM TALLAHASSEE EWD SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31488291 31198213 30688154 29488083 28218058 27418099 27458201 28148278 28518290 29178334 29648396 29878496 30408543 31098534 31538451 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 17:20:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 13:20:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041721 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-041915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/SW VA/WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041721Z - 041915Z ...ISOLD SVR THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO THE SW VA MTNS AND SMOKY MTNS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TO CNTRL VA. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS NOW IN W TN THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSON TO MEMPHIS. NEW TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM HENDERSON CO EWD NEAR FRONTAL ZONE PER RECENT VIS IMAGERY. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF TN IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AS NOTED ON MODIFIED 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. REGION EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINA PLAINS IS BEING MONITORED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35218147 34918373 35038847 35798812 36638754 36828373 36868139 36458033 35998057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 17:38:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 13:38:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041739 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-041915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...ERN SC...ERN NC AND ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041739Z - 041915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS EXTENDING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. SFC TEMPS HAVE REACHED 95 TO 100 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN VA WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC INVERTED-V PROFILES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 32258034 31948128 32298232 33148233 34488058 36217855 37607790 38127725 38037649 37377574 35917605 34177770 32787948 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 18:24:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 14:24:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041824 MNZ000-NDZ000-042000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...NW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041824Z - 042000Z A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN ND AND NW MN. THIS CONVECTION IN NE ND AND NRN MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ND... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NRN ND AND NW MN. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD INTO AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MAY BE SUSTAINED FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN SD...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN SCNTRL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... 48159988 48729846 48949684 48849572 48659440 48069350 47439371 47089464 47239596 47139744 46579852 46059947 46109995 46360101 47110105 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 18:55:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 14:55:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041855 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW THROUGH SERN OK/SW MO/WRN AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041855Z - 042100Z ...THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS INCREASING THIS AFTN... STALLED/WASHED OUT FRONT EXTENDS FROM ADA TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK. SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY...EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/TCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/WCNTRL AR. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...BUT AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MODIFIED LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2500 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WITH COLLAPSING STORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WILL BE IN LOCATIONS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MAXIMIZED WITH INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN OK/WCNTRL AR WHERE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AT ARDMORE TO MID 60S NEAR HOT SPRINGS. HIGH PW VALUES FROM 1.75-2 INCHES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34539169 33809350 33639977 34549992 35319859 36859719 36819464 36539174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 4 19:23:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 15:23:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041923 SDZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041923Z - 042100Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD. HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXISTS IN CNTRL AND NRN SD. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT EVIDENT ON THE PROFILER IN SWRN SD AT 18Z SUGGESTS SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM WHICH SHOULD FAVOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43260229 43470307 44420311 45770218 45679996 43640082 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 00:46:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 20:46:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050046 NDZ000-SDZ000-050145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 050046Z - 050145Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 685 IN CENTRAL SD AND SRN ND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SIOUX COUNTY ND TO JUST S OF JMS...WITH A SECOND AREA OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL SD TO THE W AND N OF PIR. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH A NARROW N-S ORIENTED AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTING ORGANIZATION/ SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES... EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-400 M2/S2 FROM EMMONS COUNTY ND TO LYMAN COUNTY SD INDICATED AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND RESULTANT THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. HIGH BASED STORMS DUE TO DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO 40 DEGREES SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43760138 46650104 46639804 45989812 43719913 43470014 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 03:20:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 23:20:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 050321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050320 SDZ000-NDZ000-050345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 050320Z - 050345Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WW 685 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT 04Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AREA WSR-88DS AND WIND PROFILERS SHOWED A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ /UP TO 40 KT/ ACROSS WRN NEB THIS EVENING. SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW REMAINING OVER NWRN SD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED WSWWD FROM THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL SD. NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WAA IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SLY LLJ AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TREND FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF SD/ND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE. AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW. ..PETERS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44339856 43489948 43710140 44530159 45550125 46590030 46659834 46449749 45299787 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 18:21:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 14:21:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051822 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL GA...THE SC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...SRN NC. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051822Z - 051945Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 19-20Z. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY ALONG AND S OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM JUST N OF AGS TO NEAR CAE AND ILM. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG IN THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS GA AND SC. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK OVER THIS AREA...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME...THOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION STILL APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 34357998 34337893 34297847 34117836 33887903 33407953 33058005 32748058 32608135 32788207 32838335 33128400 33508393 33868234 34188079 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 18:23:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 14:23:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051824 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051824Z - 052100Z ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SLOWING INCREASING WITHIN A BAND FROM EXTREME NWRN MN INTO SERN ND...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ND. IN ADDITION...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED BY 20Z. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND/EXTREME NWRN MN HAVE PERIODICALLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOUR WITHIN A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...BUT SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNLESS THEY ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. AREA WITH GREATER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF DVL TO SOUTH OF BIS. ALTHOUGH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAK FALLS IN ADVANCE WILL ENHANCE ISALLOBARIC FORCING...PERSISTENT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE INHIBITED WIDESPREAD STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD MANITOBA AND ND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50-60 KT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ND WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 40-45 KT EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ..WEISS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48779826 49029790 48979482 48529439 47109483 45889622 45919826 45950031 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 18:53:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 14:53:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051853 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL...CENTRAL/SRN MS...LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051853Z - 052100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND PARTS OF LA...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL AL SWWD INTO SERN LA...ENHANCED BY DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS AL AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING WWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM/MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. 15-20 KT NELY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SWRN MS/SERN LA AREA...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS. STRONG HEATING HAS STEEPENED THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..WEISS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30139252 31069243 31999100 32648985 32948795 33608581 33518518 32798514 31468860 31088996 30349122 29819177 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 19:31:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 15:31:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051932 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SRN AR/NRN LA/EXTREME NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051932Z - 052130Z ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM ECNTRL OK THROUGH SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS NERN LA/SERN AR INVOF MLU TO LLQ...POSSIBLY AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH ELY WAVE IN GULF. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 90S OR HIGHER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG. RUC ANALYSIS AND MORNING RAOBS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A COOL POCKET ALOFT...WHERE 500MB TEMPS ARE NEAR MINUS 7C. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES REMAIN VERY WEAK...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT PULSE SVR TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32129099 32259411 33989645 34829618 35439545 35449472 35099342 34669146 34319057 33599033 32569029 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 21:27:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 17:27:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052127 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/NCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052127Z - 052330Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 40 WSW GFK TO MBG TO RAP...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD INTO NEB/KS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WV LOOPS SHOW AN IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL SD WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN SD HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW MN...WHERE BILLOWS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG INHIBITION. LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD ARE VERY STEEP...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 41819794 41930088 44690135 45990037 45929678 44399629 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 5 22:34:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 18:34:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052235 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/WRN KS/PARTS OF SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052235Z - 060000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS INTO SWRN-CENTRAL NEB. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED THREAT AND PULSE-TYPE STORM MODE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND WRN EXTENT OF GREATER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S/ HAS RESULTED IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE TENDING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... ASCENT AHEAD OF ONE OR TWO WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING NWD WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PULSE WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 08/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 40899950 39330016 37750167 37050284 37010386 37790369 38350257 39490137 40720078 41040024 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 00:35:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 20:35:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060035 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NRN AND WRN MN/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686... VALID 060035Z - 060130Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 686 THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN/ERN SD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO NWRN MN AND SERN ND...AND OVERTAKING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BECOME STRONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NWRN MN /ROSEAU COUNTY/ AND OVER SERN ND /RANSOM AND RICHLAND COUNTIES/ DURING LAST 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A 60-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER ND INTO NWRN MN. ASCENT SPREADING EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD INTO NRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN TO NERN SD THIS EVENING. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 55 KT RESULTING IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS NWRN MN AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING AT INL WITH SFC-3 KM SRH EXCEEDING 240 M2/S2. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SD AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE ACROSS SD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. FARTHER E ACROSS NERN MN...AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE WHICH SUGGESTS EWD EXTENT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW SWD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AND ERN SD. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45269876 46549734 48319587 48969576 48949401 48549348 46539403 45359472 44929632 44959816 44909867 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 01:49:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 05 Aug 2006 21:49:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060150 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687... VALID 060150Z - 060315Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS MAINLY SWRN PART OF WW 687...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB THIS EVENING. NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT...UNLESS A MARKED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES/COVERAGE BEGINS TO OCCUR. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NERN NEB...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BOONE/MADISON COUNTIES NEB. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SSWWD THROUGH HOLT COUNTY NEB TO NWRN KS...WHILE A SSWLY LLJ EXTENDED FROM NRN KS INTO NERN NEB. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AT LEAST 15 MILES AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EWD ALONG SERN SD/NERN NEB BORDER COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE S OF WW 687...MAINLY IN ERN NEB...THIS NEW STRONG/ SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...THUS PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41479849 42379822 43419820 43839688 43839484 42219490 41359524 41009717 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 04:14:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 00:14:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060415 MNZ000-060515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688... VALID 060415Z - 060515Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL-NERN MN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA...WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF 35 KT SWLY LLJ INDICATED OVER NERN MN PER DLH WSR-88D VWP SHOULD ALLOW SRN EXTENT OF ONTARIO STORM CLUSTER TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS STRONGEST FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM NRN MN. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 48249146 47159295 46289307 46199404 46429473 47349456 48689431 48689295 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 07:51:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 03:51:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 060752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060751 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 AM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060751Z - 060915Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORM COMPLEX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT SMALL TSTM COMPLEX FROM ST. CROIX COUNTY WI SWWD RICE COUNTY MN HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO WHILE MOVING 270/30-35 KTS. THESE STORMS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS /SRN MN INTO NRN IA/ REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/...WITH STORMS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ROOTED IN THE .5 TO 1 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL WI BECOMES LESS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH OCCUR...THOUGH MAIN INFLOW SOURCE REGION WILL REMAIN TO THE SW. ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD INTO W-CNTRL WI...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY INTENSIFYING OVER NERN IA INTO SWRN WI. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43859322 44289350 44949328 45349267 45509135 45329011 44498994 43499019 43309149 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 18:56:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 14:56:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061856 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS AND SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061856Z - 062130Z WATCH NOT EXPECTED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA SWWD THRU SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG CELLS JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME STRONGER LOOKING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES OVER KS ARE AROUND 100...INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THRU NWRN MO...AND UPR 80S INTO SRN IA. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE BASES OF AROUND 8000 FT AGL AS IT STILL FIGHTS CAPPING INVERSION. BUT...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEEPEN ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7-7.5C/KM WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD THEN COLLAPSE POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889690 40289573 40729424 41109333 41449306 41889304 42099358 41999432 41719513 41459597 41159697 40979771 40609884 40169937 39599967 39189984 38769991 38479962 38709881 39129821 39659750 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 19:02:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 15:02:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 061901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061901 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS AND SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061901Z - 062130Z WATCH NOT EXPECTED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA SWWD THRU SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG CELLS JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME STRONGER LOOKING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES OVER KS ARE AROUND 100...INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THRU NWRN MO...AND UPR 80S INTO SRN IA. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE BASES OF AROUND 8000 FT AGL AS IT STILL FIGHTS CAPPING INVERSION. BUT...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEEPEN ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7-7.5C/KM WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD THEN COLLAPSE POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889690 40289573 40729424 41109333 41449306 41889304 42099358 41999432 41719513 41459597 41159697 40979771 40609884 40169937 39599967 39189984 38769991 38479962 38709881 39129821 39659750  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 21:12:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 17:12:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062113 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062112 ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-062315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO/WRN AR/ERN OK/NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062112Z - 062315Z ...ISOLD MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF SE OK AS WELL AS NE TX... LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH ELY WAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SRN LA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GULF WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OZARKS IN MO/AR THROUGH NE TX. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 102-106 ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL OK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/70S...THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES NEAR 1400 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT AS STORMS COLLAPSE...STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL RESULT IN ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO INDICATED A 42 KT GUST AS THE TEMP DROPPED FROM 96 TO 80...AND IN NE TX...A 44KT GUST WAS RECORDED AT GREENVILLE /KGVT/. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURSTS...LOCAL CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60+ MPH. ..TAYLOR.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32849351 31409591 32139719 34649672 36289524 38359344 38429272 37929234 34689216 33319240 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 6 22:21:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 18:21:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 062222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062221 MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-062345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN-SERN OH/WRN-NRN WV/SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062221Z - 062345Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN-ERN OH...WRN-NRN WV INTO SWRN PA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN-ERN OH AND WRN-NRN WV INTO SWRN PA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/. WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN OH AT THIS TIME SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE SEGMENTS. THUS...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FROM ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES...WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38898187 39418223 39998223 40378190 40678125 40778050 40647974 39767949 39467938 38997979 38728067 38638163 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 7 01:08:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 06 Aug 2006 21:08:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 070106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070105 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB/NRN MO/SRN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070105Z - 070230Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO...AND POTENTIALLY FAR SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB/NORTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA THIS EVENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR ERN IA SWWD INTO NRN/NWRN MO AND THEN GENERALLY WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE SE AND S MOVEMENT OF THE FAR NWRN MO AND KS PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH ARE BEING ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT STORMS ARE HIGH BASED WITH 30-40 SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS... ESPECIALLY OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER INCREASE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION...AND THUS DECREASE OVERALL SEVERE WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 08/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41599066 40119045 39299157 39029356 38909501 38809596 39659637 40269610 40829534 41239332 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 00:57:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 20:57:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120058 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN DAKOTAS...NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 710... VALID 120058Z - 120230Z TWO MAIN AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS PERSIST...ONE FROM NWRN SD INTO WRN ND ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ANOTHER OVER FAR S-CNTRL SD INTO NRN NEB...INITIATED BY STRONG HEATING. THE GAP/LACK OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN SD HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS. THUS...DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY BETWEEN PIR AND RAP. HOWEVER...ISOLATED RIGHT MOVING CELL NEAR FAITH SD WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS IT TRACKS SEWD E OF THE DRYLINE. FARTHER N...STORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH STRONGER FORCING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER. ..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GGW... 42149928 42120244 49030408 48970016 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 03:01:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:01:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120301 NEZ000-SDZ000-120430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120301Z - 120430Z A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST ACROSS NE NEB OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD IN INTENSITY AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR O'NEILL NEB IS VERY NEAR AN INSTABILITY MAX ACROSS NRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE MCS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD TOWARD NORFOLK NEB LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK ACROSS ERN NEB AND THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF STORM INTENSITY IN THE MCS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41349711 41369814 41849875 42399869 42779827 42849742 42639678 41889640 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 03:29:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:29:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120331 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-120500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...NE ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120331Z - 120500Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO NE SD AND NE ND ATTM. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ND AND SD MOVING INTO A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE NRN MCS IN NRN ND IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS GOING INTO NE ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE SRN MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NE SD. THE TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...FSD...ABR... 47239864 47529968 48019991 48649973 48939856 48799738 48139705 47459749 45809939 45919806 45649698 44649710 44449880 44889969 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 03:36:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2006 23:36:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120338 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...NE ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120338Z - 120515Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO NE SD AND NE ND ATTM. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ND AND SD MOVING INTO A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE NRN MCS IN NRN ND IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS GOING INTO NE ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE SRN MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NE SD. THE TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44899971 46369996 48249990 48809940 48909796 48519719 47289691 45649698 44649710 44449880 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 08:12:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 04:12:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 120813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120813 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN ND/PARTS OF CENTRAL-ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 120813Z - 120915Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NERN ND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN MN. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE EAST OF WW 712 INTO NWRN MN BY 09Z...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF NEW WW AT THIS TIME. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TRAVERSED SWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA APPEAR TO BE AIDING ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS OVER ERN SD...NERN MT INTO NWRN ND AND THE LARGER MCS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA INTO NERN ND. ...NERN ND/NWRN MN... IN ADDITION TO ASCENT AHEAD OF NERN ND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...30-35 KT SWLY LLJ OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY RESERVOIR LOCATED OVER ERN ND/CENTRAL SD TO SUSTAIN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FLANK OF THIS MCS. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN MN BETWEEN 08-09Z...BUT AREAL COVERAGE FOR A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ...ERN SD... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN SD CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HON TO 9V9 AND THEN GENERALLY WWD INTO SWRN SD. 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB INTO CENTRAL SD IS RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUPPORTING WAA REGIME GIVEN 850 MB N-S ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT OVER ERN SD. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS COMPLEX...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ...NWRN ND... ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/NERN ND MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN ND EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GENERALLY WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 49009579 46539647 45709726 44179718 43879739 43869911 44380050 44880052 45640037 46850081 47160167 47820232 48580100 49030017 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 18:26:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 14:26:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121827 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-122000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121827Z - 122000Z SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BASED IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...APPEARS UNDERWAY IN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RISING THROUGH THE 90S. WITH CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH PEAK HEATING ...UPDRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING INCREASES NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES. SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...BUT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20-30 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ENHANCE RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE EAST OF SYDNEY NE INTO AREAS OF SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF PIERRE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST NOTABLE EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 21Z...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. ..KERR.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41310268 42250193 43490114 44350070 45150049 45459912 44839819 43919824 42249939 41060047 40560195 40950264 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 18:37:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 14:37:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121838 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-122115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121838Z - 122115Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN GA...WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME NECESSARY. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHERE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOVING SEWD WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...AND MAY FORM INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOW CAUSING GUSTY WINDS...SOME STRONG. ..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30678142 31218437 32578393 33108318 32328058 31838095 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 19:35:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 15:35:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121937 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...PARTS OF WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121937Z - 122100Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/ WESTERN MN. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LEAD WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTRIBUTING TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING/ INCREASING IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 21-22Z. GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...THOUGH THERE LIKELY STILL REMAINS SOME INHIBITION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ...AND CLOUD COVER IS RESTRICTING SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT CREATING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AROUND THE FARGO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46209919 47109901 47779849 48569733 48529608 47389591 46049665 45559775 45719918 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 19:43:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 15:43:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121944 WYZ000-MTZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SW MT...CNTRL AND NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121944Z - 122215Z ISOLATED SVR WIND AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER SRN OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS ID AND INTO WRN MT/WY BY THIS EVENING. COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING HAS PRODUCE VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE THREAT IS INSTABILITY...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEAK /< 500 J/KG/ DUE TO ONLY UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG 50+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND FAVORABLE/INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT...A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX... 44171026 45221131 46490942 46090702 44930675 43230653 42880771 42820924 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 22:06:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 18:06:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122208 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE UT...SW WY AND NW CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122208Z - 122345Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NE UT...SW WY AND NW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL WY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SERN WY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S F WITH A POCKET OF 50 TO 55 F DEWPOINTS LOCATED FROM GRAND JUNCTION CO NWD TO THE WYOMING STATE-LINE. ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS...A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN NRN UT WHERE SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AREA OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 TO 25 F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... 39490825 39901067 40611258 41671186 41330929 40500773 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 12 23:04:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 19:04:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122306 MNZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122306Z - 130030Z SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD ACROSS NRN MN AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW MAY NOT BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS CURRENTLY IN NW MN LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GOING OVER THE TOP OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT IN ERN SD AND THE MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET MAX. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT SUPPORTING THE MCS THIS EVENING MOVING ACROSS NRN MN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR 88D VWPS...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER ACROSS NRN MN. THIS ALONG WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THIS EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS. ..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46699285 46579505 47859554 48839511 48549285 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 13 00:02:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 20:02:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130004 MNZ000-SDZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130004Z - 130130Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN NEB INTO SE SD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 F RANGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE CENTER OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE MCS IS MOVING PRIMARILY ENEWD ATTM...THE STORMS MAY TEND TO DRIFT MORE EWD WITH TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ENEWD INTO MN. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT PARTS OF SW MN LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR QUICKLY ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN AS MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. SUPERCELLS MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS. ..BROYLES.. 08/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 43619474 43499734 43849815 44619768 44819605 44679503 44359446 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 13 18:56:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2006 14:56:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131858 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO...SW/S CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131858Z - 132030Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING INHIBITION IN AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A TOPEKA/OMAHA/KANSAS CITY LINE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 20-22Z...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH MO AND LAMONI IA. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE AIDED BY LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ON TAIL END OF BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW VEERING TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AT 500 MB...ABOVE LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 08/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41909400 41819300 41169281 40529297 39619386 39339489 39919582 40659520 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 13 23:03:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2006 19:03:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132304 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...WCNTRL IL...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718... VALID 132304Z - 140000Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ITS ESEWD PROPAGATION ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SRN END. DOWNSTREAM...A NARROW WEDGE OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EXISTS TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS A CONTINUATION OF THIS MCS...WITH EMBEDDED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES WILL MOVE EAST OF CURRENT WATCH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 08/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39669405 41469163 41019020 39699108 39179228 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 01:36:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2006 21:36:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140138 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-140245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0838 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...WCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719... VALID 140138Z - 140245Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RACE WELL AHEAD OF BROADER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM NWRN MO INTO SERN IA. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER STORMS IS PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25 KT THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WW719...AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..DARROW.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 41629191 39999025 38399243 39989409 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 18:11:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 14:11:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141812 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-141945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...NRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141812Z - 141945Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING WITH LARGEST TOWERS OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE CIN HAS ERODED. CONTINUED HEATING WILL ERODE CIN FARTHER E...ALLOWING ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE MTNS TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY EWD. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. ..JEWELL.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 39420570 42410587 43570477 44020357 43980222 43190163 39960299 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 19:42:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 15:42:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141942 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN/CNTRL KY...NRN MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141942Z - 142145Z A BAND OF STRONG MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY TOWARD NRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WAKE OF THE KY CONVECTION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BAND ACROSS CENTRAL KY HAVE INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SMALL SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH 15-20 KT FORWARD SPEED OF MOVEMENT SHOULD DIMINISH ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS WARM/MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-2C TO -4C AT 500 MB/ IS RESULTING IN WEAK DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES AND LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF UPWARD PARCEL ACCELERATION. STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 900 MB MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE PERMITTED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD INTO SRN IL/SWRN IN AND WRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WIND PROFILERS/VAD WINDS INDICATE WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT ABOVE 2 KM AGL PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ..WEISS.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36949190 37929156 38559058 38458922 38358733 37858575 37368483 36878494 36118532 35968663 36528945 36669133 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 20:17:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 16:17:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142017 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR...OK...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142017Z - 142215Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SWRN INTO ERN OK AND NWRN AR. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IS LOCATED ALONG A CDS/CSM/OUN/MKO/SOUTH OF HRO LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN AR...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEAR THE OUTFLOW OVER OK. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILERS/VAD WINDS SHOW 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SW OF ABI IS LIFTING NNEWD TOWARD NWRN TX WITH DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..WEISS.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35019490 34809668 33709791 33249849 33449951 33760042 34750061 35489925 36069693 36249490 36329318 36139189 35599131 34949195  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 14 22:44:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 18:44:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142244 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN KY...NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 721... VALID 142244Z - 142345Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WW721... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM NERN AR...INTO WRN KY. MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS WITH A SLOW EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNSET. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST AT BEST AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING BEFORE ACTUALLY PROGRESSING COMPLETELY SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. ..DARROW.. 08/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36769326 39168733 36788736 34559325 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 15 00:19:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 20:19:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 150021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150021 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...ERN WY...WRN NEB...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 150021Z - 150215Z SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH BOX WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGEST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. FARTHER S...THREAT CONTINUES WITH ACTIVITY FROM WRN NEB INTO NERN CO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THREAT HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF ERN WY AND THOSE COUNTIES WILL BE CLEARED AT 0030Z. 00Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG AND VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION OVER SWRN SD DUE TO BACKED SELY SURFACE WINDS...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMP/DEW SPREADS OVER 30 F. STILL...THREAT FOR PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES WILL RESULT. FARTHER S...ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG LINKED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO. WHILE INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW...STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS A FEW COUNTIES E OF THE WATCH. ..JEWELL.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 39580275 39550496 39100537 39930536 39950572 40160570 41000623 41000527 42670532 42650497 43490493 43520521 44990516 45040408 45230407 45240298 45060292 45090205 43690200 43680215 42990210 43000277 41180258 40410261 40420279 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 15 20:34:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 16:34:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152035 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH N CNTRL AND NERN SD...SERN ND AND W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152035Z - 152230Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN WY THROUGH WRN SD MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS FARTHER NE FROM N CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD INTO W CNTRL MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THIS REGION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL MN WWD THROUGH NRN SD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN WY THROUGH WRN SD. FARTHER EAST...ELEVATED MID LEVEL STORMS CONTINUE OVER NERN SD. RECENT SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW A BAND OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER N CNTRL SD. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS N CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MODEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND IS LIMITING MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS OVER NERN SD. A BELT OF 30 TO 35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. ..DIAL.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46269820 45340043 45100229 44790328 43190364 43360193 44629911 44849613 45909576 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 15 21:53:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 17:53:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152154 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-160000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN ID/SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152154Z - 160000Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM FAR EASTERN ID ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ID...WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE DISTINCTLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS PER IR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS RELATIVELY MODEST PER ADJUSTED 12Z RAOBS/RUC SOUNDINGS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RIVERTON WY/BILLINGS MT WSR-88D VWPS AT LEAST PARTIALLY SAMPLE THE MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44220641 43740930 44231282 45681334 46660593 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 01:36:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 21:36:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160137 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...SERN ND...WCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722... VALID 160137Z - 160230Z ...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA... DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING ACROSS CNTRL SD THIS EVENING. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER ADDITIONAL SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELED. ..DARROW.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45920197 45939800 46289801 46299729 46639726 46649617 46729618 46729515 46389515 46369464 45799461 45779424 45689418 45569413 45419404 45309416 45299428 44989426 44979453 44729450 44719464 44449461 44449476 44709537 44539534 44549561 44639561 44619645 44539646 44539786 44629786 44629869 44199868 44209892 43929892 43939936 43859932 43769942 43689950 43629932 43509927 43509961 43769966 43689985 43700029 43740059 43720068 43760084 43840105 43980106 44000104 44180105 44180118 44980113 45000152 45460149 45460200 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 19:26:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 15:26:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161927 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161927Z - 162130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF ERN ND SWD INTO CNTRL SD NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD. MOIST AXIS HAS ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL SD AND LESS THAN 1500 J/KG FARTHER N INTO ND WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF ND PORTION OF BOUNDARY WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING EWD. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR DEVILS LAKE IN ND. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KT IN THIS REGION IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FARTHER SW IN SD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL SD WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST MINIMAL CAP REMAINS. ..DIAL.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46979666 43759957 43150138 46049969 48619873 48509699 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 19:36:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 15:36:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161938 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-162145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ORE/FAR SOUTHEAST WA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID INTO WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161938Z - 162145Z POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...NAMELY FROM FAR NORTHEAST ORE INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND FAR WESTERN MT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING EASTWARD OVER THE WA/ORE CASCADES...WITH DISTINCT DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER JET STREAK EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SIMILAR TO TRENDS OF INCREASING TOWERING CU/CBS PER VISIBLE IMAGERY...BROAD/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION WILL FAVOR A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN ORE INTO CENTRAL ID AND MUCH OF FAR WESTERN MT. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM BOISE CAPTURES THE MARGINALLY-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALREADY AROUND 1000 J/KG. AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ATOP A WELL-MIXED LAYER FAVORABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT AMIDST RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..GUYER.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 44731837 46081747 48781613 48311281 46931073 45231100 43731425 43741791 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 22:23:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 18:23:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162223 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-170000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723... VALID 162223Z - 170000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN MT...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EAST OF WW 723...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MT INTO NORTHERN WY. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 723 IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT...WHERE STORMS HAVE PRIMARILY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WA/ORE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF WW 723...OBSERVATIONAL/RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS QUALITY/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH EAST EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE LEWISTOWN/BILLINGS MT AREAS AND FAR NORTHERN WY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...NO WATCH IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44521540 45921599 47421531 48351426 48561291 48060847 45790688 43780780 43911104 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 16 23:20:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 19:20:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162321 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... VALID 162321Z - 170045Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VLY THIS EVE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE AND HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING CINH TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NWRN MN SWWD TO NCNTRL SD. THE GRAND FORKS VWP SHOWED 35-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THIS WAS BOOSTING VERTICAL SHEAR TO VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 DEG C/KM... LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLD TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SERN ND...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WAS LOCALLY BACKED INVOF A WEAK SFC LOW. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER THIS EVENING...LESSENING THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WEAKER SHEAR COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MT WAVE SHOULD STRENGTHEN INHIBITION AND LESSEN THE SEVERE RISKS IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS NWRN MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..RACY.. 08/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44659938 45059983 46599952 48239820 49569622 49979464 48419495 47029606 45489730 44579805 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 01:58:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 21:58:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170159 MTZ000-IDZ000-170300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723... VALID 170159Z - 170300Z ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON/OREGON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH DURING REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS..HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..BOTHWELL.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44731673 48811512 48691004 44531199 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 03:40:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 23:40:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170341 MNZ000-NDZ000-170415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... VALID 170341Z - 170415Z MASS CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING OWING TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE LLJ NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO NWRN ONTARIO. INCREASING CINH AND THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER SUPPORT/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF STORMS THIS EVENING. THUS...THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH IN TIME OR SPACE. ..RACY.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47029602 46089639 46019669 46059773 46299839 46419829 48249708 48769628 48959517 48419495 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 06:51:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 02:51:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170652 NDZ000-MTZ000-170815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL MT INTO WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170652Z - 170815Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND INTO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN/SRN MT INTO WRN ND. DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS... FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT/WRN ND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT ARE RESULTING IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL/ COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING ORGANIZED BASED ON STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS PER WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGER WIND SPEEDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO RESULT IN A ISOLATED HAIL...THOUGH LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE. ..PETERS.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 45890956 45601145 45681247 46091268 46811250 47171107 47450938 47670748 47700565 47850359 47690054 47050028 46130101 45890469 45890758 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 19:09:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 15:09:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171910 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171910Z - 172115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA OF WRN ND AND SPREAD NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD ACROSS SD AND EXTENDS FROM MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN SD AND INTO NERN WY. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S SW OF THE FRONT OVER NERN WY. HOWEVER...ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT N OF FRONT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NWRN SD. THIS MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 8.5 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN AND NRN SD. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ENELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT EXISTS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 30 KT AT 500 MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN SD TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ACTIVITY MAY LATER EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ... 43890109 44060353 44670430 45730372 45920064 44829957 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 20:47:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 16:47:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172048 KSZ000-OKZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 172048Z - 172245Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH ELONGATED WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SW-NE ORIENTED STREAKS OF TOWERING CU/SOME CBS ARE NOTED AS OF 2030Z FROM WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHERN KS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...STRONG INSOLATION/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER 100S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2250 J/KG AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED/CINH ERODES. FARTHER NORTH...WHILE INITIALLY RELATIVELY MORE STABLE VIA MORNING CONVECTION...RETREATING/NORTHWARD SHIFTING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD VIA MODEST STORM MOTIONS/POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IN A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT /1.5-2.0 IN/. ..GUYER.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... 38859928 39769786 39799642 39549543 38439541 35489793 34569919 34709961 35399984 36829984 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 17 23:02:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 19:02:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172302 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...EXTREME SERN MT...WRN-CNTRL SD AND SWRN-SCNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172302Z - 180100Z 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM KATY-KPIR-KRAP AND A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS INTO NWRN SD AND NRN WY. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG/N OF THE TROUGH HAS ADVECTED 55-60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS TO THE SD BLACK HILLS...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. PLUMES OF CUMULUS HAVE ERUPTED INTO TSTMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE CINH WAS WEAKENED BY HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE CINH IS STRONGER AND OVERALL FORCING WEAKER. THUS...IT APPEARS IN THE SHORT TERM...23-01Z...THAT THE HIGHEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST NEAR/NE OF THE RAPID CITY NEWD ACROSS MEADE AND ZIEBACH COUNTIES. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EDGES EWD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...THE SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN/NCNTRL SD AND SWRN/SCNTRL ND. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER 03Z. STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER SWD AND GIVEN 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN SD. ..RACY.. 08/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 43870484 44940520 46140390 46700235 46800078 46009917 45289920 44289989 43340225 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 02:08:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2006 22:08:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180209 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...NWRN/NCNTRL SD...SWRN/SCNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180209Z - 180315Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE LLJ WAS INCREASING AND ENHANCING THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/N OF THE E-W COLD FRONT. THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS SERN MT AND NWRN SD...SIMILAR TO SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN SD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.8 DEG C PER KM ON THE 00Z KRAP SOUNDING/ ACROSS THE REGION AND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A THREAT AS WELL IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN SD. GIVEN THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD. ..RACY.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45900706 46720377 46400052 45739911 44750031 43780156 43510347 44290579 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 04:41:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 00:41:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180442 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180442Z - 180645Z TSTMS CONTINUE SCATTERED ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD AND WRN ND THIS EVE...AIDED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT SPREADING N OF THE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE DAKS. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER S...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN WY/SERN MT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL SD THROUGH 06Z. THIS OUTFLOW WILL AUGMENT THE COLD FRONT...AND TSTMS WILL BECOME POST-FRONTAL QUICKLY...OR BE ROOTED ATOP THE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SD. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..RACY.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45000574 46090430 45990179 45579943 44709908 44100121 44400489 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 04:45:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 00:45:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180446 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180446Z - 180645Z TSTMS CONTINUE SCATTERED ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD AND WRN ND THIS EVE...AIDED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT SPREADING N OF THE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE DAKS. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER S...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN WY/SERN MT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL SD THROUGH 06Z. THIS OUTFLOW WILL AUGMENT THE COLD FRONT...AND TSTMS WILL BECOME POST-FRONTAL QUICKLY...OR BE ROOTED ATOP THE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SD. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..RACY.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45000574 46090430 45990179 45579943 44709908 44100121 44400489 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 18 06:16:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 02:16:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180618 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180617 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT...FAR NE WY...NW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180617Z - 180745Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE MT...NE WY AND NW SD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN MN...INTO CNTRL SD AND SE WY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG) IS PRESENT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BISMARK WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 08/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 44440175 44310386 44940465 45850431 46120294 45920170 45230115 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 22 20:51:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 16:51:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222051 SDZ000-NDZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222051Z - 222215Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND NRN SD FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS SD...WITH THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN SD NWWD INTO SWRN ND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN MT/WY. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE AIDING CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND GENERALLY 45 W THROUGH 50 S OF BIS. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY-VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...WARM H7 TEMPERATURES AT 10-12 C PER 18Z BIS SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SRN ND/NRN SD...THEN CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 08/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45760165 46280209 46880179 46840009 45369837 44589833 44349963 45250102 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 22 21:20:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 17:20:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222120 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NY/VT/NH/ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222120Z - 222315Z ...ISOLD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN NY THROUGH NH/VT AND ME... ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS REGION IS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN ONTARIO...AND THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE NEAR 35-40 KT PER RUC ANALYSIS AND AREA VWP DATA. BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING GIVEN TIME OF DAY...AND A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 08/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42847269 42657836 43467863 44907505 47446825 45116708 44206913 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 02:15:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 22:15:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230000 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...DAKOTAS...MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230000Z - 230200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL... BUT THIS MAY STILL BE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS AND MOBRIDGE SD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...STRONG WARMING ABOVE THIS LAYER...EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO...SUPPRESS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE BLACK HILLS...PARTICULARLY WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CONVECTION...PROBABLY BASED AROUND 700 MB ...IS EVIDENT ALONG EDGE OF STRONGER CAP NORTH/NORTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN AND FARGO ND. THIS MAY PERSIST/INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TOWARD THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME...MODELS DO SUGGEST VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AN IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH EDGE OF STRONGER CAP IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SIZABLE CAPE...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL INCREASE. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SEEMS NEAR/EAST OF FARGO INTO ALEXANDRIA/BRAINERD AREAS. ..KERR.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47489895 47969841 48039725 47159526 45949367 45139343 44849456 45599598 45999693 46389843 46859900  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 03:01:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 23:01:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230302 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 731... VALID 230302Z - 230430Z CONTINUE WW 731...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE SOUTH/EAST. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT STILL APPEARS CENTER OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF FARGO ND AND NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MN BY 05-06Z. INTENSE CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ...WILL PROBABLY BECOME ALIGNED WITH WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN ...NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COULD POSE INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TIER SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF WATCH...ALONG INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN TRAINING CELLS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TOWARD THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA. ..KERR.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46499953 47389769 46949553 46599472 45899372 45149324 44899377 45039465 45179516 45379603 45709815 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 12:50:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 08:50:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231250 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-231445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733... VALID 231250Z - 231445Z SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN AND CNTRL/SRN WI THROUGH MID-MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN SD EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NRN IL. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 30+ KT WSWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET STREAK CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS. AREA VWP AND PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT DEEP WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...12Z RAOBS AT ABR AND RAP SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL EML WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS SRN MN/IA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS...COUPLED WITH EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIN...SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN THE REGION ELEVATED. THE WRN EDGE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD INTO SE MN AND WRN/SRN WI WITH TIME. GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD... 43529404 43939467 44399520 44379366 44419290 44509223 44559159 44889065 44048994 43678973 43449075 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 18:16:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 14:16:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231817 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/PARTS OF CENTRAL-SRN WI/FAR NERN IA/FAR NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231817Z - 231945Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SERN MN/FAR NERN IA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN WI AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN IL. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SD/ND BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL MN...THEN SEWD TOWARD LSE TO SERN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 60S/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN A MODERATELY-VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG/. WAA ALONG NOSE OF 25 KT SWLY LLJ HAS MAINTAINED ELEVATED CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WI TO THE N/E OF WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED NEW CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SERN MN/NERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WI...WHICH MAY BE INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING CINH. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 42579050 43139166 43899255 44429263 44849194 44969101 44859037 44108921 43238848 42338847 42338988 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 23 22:57:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 18:57:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 232236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232236 INZ000-MIZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NWRN INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232236Z - 240000Z STRONG/ROTATING STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SRN LK MI...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT SWRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN LK MI...ON ERN FRINGES OF INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT SWRN LOWER MI...GIVEN FAVORABLE/VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND AMPLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AREAL EXTENT OF THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ATTM E OF A N-S AXIS INCLUDING WELLS/WHITLEY/NOBLE/LAGRANGE COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND BRANCH/CALHOUN COUNTIES IN LOWER MI. UNLESS STORMS CAN TURN DRAMATICALLY SWD AND REMAIN OVER WRN AND CENTRAL INDIANA -- WHICH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM -- WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42678723 42688602 42008534 41178532 40948612 41458748 42208755  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 00:15:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 20:15:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240017 WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/SRN AND CNTRL WI/NERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734... VALID 240017Z - 240215Z ...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT NOW ACROSS CNTRL WI... WELL DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN MN SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO JUST EAST OF LA CROSSE TO MADISON...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN STORM OF INTEREST IS NOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...AND RECENTLY HAD 2 INCH SIZE HAIL/SEVERE WINDS REPORTED. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR MINNEAPOLIS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BE CONFIRMED WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA. ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND WIND PROFILER/VAD DATA ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT...WITH VEERING WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN ISSUE SO FAR HAS BEEN LACK OF INITIATION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NRN IND. WE WILL WAIT FOR SOUNDING DATA BEFORE ISSUING CLEARANCE LINES...BUT TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z APPEARS TO BE WANING ACROSS BOTH WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. IF A STORM FORMS ON OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX... 42789029 43809152 44729103 44308922 43978814 43638822 42358846 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 01:03:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 21:03:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240105 NDZ000-SDZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240105Z - 240230Z ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN ND...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING JUST E OF THE ND/MT BORDER. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONE SUPERCELL STORM MOVING SEWD INTO NERN HETTINGER COUNTY ATTM...WITH A RECENT STORM SPLIT NOTED. THIS HIGH-BASED STORM IS OCCURRING ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NWRN ND. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN BILLINGS...MCKENZIE...AND DUNN COUNTIES -- LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO MODEST ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA. WITH NAM/RUC SUGGESTING SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...CAP INDICATED ON EVENING BIS RAOB SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST E OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY WARRANT NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR... 45930271 46790356 47920370 47970219 47460038 46909986 46200015 46020148 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 02:24:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 22:24:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240226 INZ000-ILZ000-240300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735... VALID 240226Z - 240300Z SLOW DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY CONTINUES ACROSS WW. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS NWRN INDIANA ATTM...THOUGH STORM MOVING SWD ACROSS WHITE AND CARROLL COUNTIES AND INTO NERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY REMAINS FAIRLY INTENSE. STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ATTM OVER SRN LK MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI...BUT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI...NWRN INDIANA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LK MI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE WITH TIME. IN THE MEAN TIME...THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT... 40548760 40938609 40548613 40528748 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 02:32:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2006 22:32:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240233 ILZ000-WIZ000-240300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 734... VALID 240233Z - 240300Z STORMS AND A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE ATTM ACROSS SRN WI. WITH STORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST/SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS SRN WI AND ADJACENT NRN IL...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD STORMS -- INCLUDING A FEW WELL-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS -- CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION...WITH ORGANIZATION AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD THROUGH A DEEP LAYER CONFIRMED BY LATEST MXK /MILWAUKEE WI/ VWP. GIVEN ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED...REPLACING WW 734. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44449061 43938924 42888697 41708759 42669003 44049091 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 08:11:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 04:11:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240812 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-240945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NE IL...SW LOWER MI...NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737... VALID 240812Z - 240945Z THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS SRN WI AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SRN LOWER MI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE TOTAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN MN AND SRN WI ESEWD ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI AND NW OH. THE MCS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING IN SW LOWER MI ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THE TWO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE MULTICELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS SOME LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40958579 41838837 42619010 43139090 43879088 44188975 43798857 43168701 42068482 41298494 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 09:12:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 05:12:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240914 NDZ000-MTZ000-241045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW ND...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240914Z - 241045Z DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN ND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 10Z ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL MT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND ATTM. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW EXISTS ACROSS SE MT/WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING MAKING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...AS SHEAR INCREASES...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46840123 46800341 46280424 46110513 46730647 47880628 48770473 48960221 48670087 47550050 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 11:24:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 07:24:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241126 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-241230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN WI...NRN IL...FAR NW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738... VALID 241126Z - 241230Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH AN MCS ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW SOUTH OF THE WW 738 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WNWWD FROM SRN LOWER MI THROUGH SRN WI INTO FAR SRN MN. AN MCS IS ONGOING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THIS MORNING...THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AFTER DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN... 41078793 41158859 41638910 42188974 42709002 42998964 43088897 42608755 41928675 41408689 41168705 41028736 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 15:17:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 11:17:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241519 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241518 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-241645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MN...WRN WI. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 241518Z - 241645Z COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS IS EXPANDING ACROSS SERN MN ATTM...BETWEEN WRIGHT AND HOUSTON COUNTIES...AND INCLUDING SWRN PORTIONS TWIN CITIES AREA. COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD WHILE EXPANDING ALONG EITHER END...INCLUDING INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI NOT PRESENTLY IN WW. LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACCORDINGLY. VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL -- ESTIMATED UP TO 4.25 INCH DIAMETER --- WAS REPORTED IN SCOTT COUNTY MN 1452Z FROM CORES NOW OVER RICE COUNTY...ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL EMBEDDED IN COMPLEX. ANOTHER SUPERCELL MOVING FROM RICE INTO GOODHUE COUNTY HAS PRODUCED SVR HAIL AS WELL. BACKBUILDING CONTINUES ON W SIDE OF THIS COMPLEX...POTENTIAL FOR WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE NOT ONLY TO REDUNDANT SVR POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS...BUT ALSO TO TRAINING OF ECHOES THAT WILL EXACERBATE HEAVY RAIN RISKS. MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ELEVATED HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS WITH LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT NEAR LINE 50 S LSE...20 S ULM...HON. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH 18Z...SOMEWHAT MORE QUICKLY OVER SWRN MN THAN OVER TWIN CITIES REGION WHERE ONGOING MCS IS REINFORCING LOW LEVEL STATIC STABILITY. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS...HOWEVER LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ABOVE FRONTAL SFC WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT WITH MODIFIED 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWING ELEVATED MUCAPES 4000 J/KG...AMIDST 55-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46279496 45239132 44109097 43479130 43939456 44639646 45279649 46009580 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 18:03:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 14:03:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241805 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH SERN MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740... VALID 241805Z - 242000Z ...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN/SWRN WI WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS SPREADING INTO WCNTRL MN... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD THROUGH SRN MN...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY DEPICT A SECONDARY IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY...WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR ABERDEEN SD TO VALENTINE NEB AND ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IN WCNTRL MN. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LARGE HAIL NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E/SEWD FROM WCNTRL MN AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MORRISON/MILLE LACS AND KANABEC COUNTIES...GIVEN STRONG STORM NOW IN POPE COUNTY. SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS SWRN MN...WHICH HAS BEEN IN A RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE ZONE. AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THIS AFTN FOR SIGNS OF SFC-BASED STORMS. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD... 43169119 44569607 46319610 44839094 43219094 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 18:10:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 14:10:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241811 ILZ000-241945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241811Z - 241945Z STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN WI WILL APPROACH THE IL BORDER BY 19Z. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT HOUR. IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR NRN IL. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SRN WI ARE MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 40 KT. STORMS OVER SWRN WI APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THOUGH THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THIS REGION...SLY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH SRN EXTENT INTO IL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEPER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS A LITTLE MORE MODEST. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SSEWD. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... 41708761 41368838 41548967 42319021 42338787 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 19:43:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 15:43:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241944 MNZ000-WIZ000-242215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241944Z - 242215Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 740 AS THREAT FOR SFC BASED STORMS INCREASE... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS CLOUD STREETS STREAMING ACROSS NRN IA NEAR AXA/MCW...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MN ARE OBSCURING A BETTER VIEW OF SFC CUMULUS. SFC TEMPS ACROSS SW MN ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK OR COMPLETELY GONE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPH INDICATED ON THE MINNEAPOLIS VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS BAND OF CONVECTION/ASCENT APPROACHING FROM ERN SD. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL HELP INITIATE SFC BASED STORMS ACROSS SWRN MN. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD... 43759434 44069612 45099619 44899432 44519225 43809205 43709286 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 19:55:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 15:55:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241957 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 742... VALID 241957Z - 242200Z THREAT FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO WITH STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL ND. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER S INTO SD. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SRN PORTIONS OF WW 742 MAY BE REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. THIS AFTERNOON AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL ND TO A SURFACE LOW IN NRN SD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO SWRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO S CNTRL SD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN ND WILL MAINTAIN STORMS OVER CNTRL ND NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER S INTO SD...A STRONG EML AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN SD HAVE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SO FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ZONE OF STRONG MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 3500 J/KG. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47539757 46359631 44779638 44599819 43439985 43490117 45830062 48270087 48429997 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 21:48:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 17:48:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242150 WIZ000-242245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242150Z - 242245Z ...SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL WI EAST OF WW 743... LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW ELEVATED SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI. ELEVATED SUPERCELL NOW OVER DUNN CO WI IS MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KT AND WILL EXIT WW 743 IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. VERY LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED...WITH RECENT REPORTS OF 2.5 INCH HAIL JUST WEST IN PIERCE CO. 18Z SOUNDING FROM MINNEAPOLIS SHOWED ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT COMBINED WITH THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THESE STORMS...AND A NEW WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43369090 44129115 44949147 45499124 45108886 42748821 42569014 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 22:34:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 18:34:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242236 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242236Z - 242330Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS SERN SD AND SWRN MN... TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO HAND CO WILL CONTINUE MOVING E/SEWD AROUND 30 KT AND POSSIBLY AFFECT HURON WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS STORM EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO IN HYDE CO AROUND 2210Z...AND PRESENTS A THREAT TO PORTIONS OF SERN SD. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF HURON THROUGH SRN MN. AS THE FRONT SAGS SWD...STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN AIRMASS WITH MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-4500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILER DATA IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED ENVIRONMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 43419532 43139891 44699874 44369506 43629483 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 24 23:05:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 19:05:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242303 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD/SRN HALF OF MN/WRN WI/NERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...744... VALID 242303Z - 250030Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 743 AND 744. SURFACE LOW IS NOW INDICATED ACROSS N CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO SWRN WI...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL SD AND NWRN NEB. AIRMASS INVOF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH 3000 TO 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AIDED BY 50 KT WSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...EXPECT THREAT FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS TO CONTINUE. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS...EVEN WELL N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS. MEANWHILE...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXISTS JUST E OF SURFACE LOW...AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT -- FROM ERN SD ESEWD INTO SRN WI. WITH MODERATE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF THIS FRONT...PRONOUNCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VEERING IS YIELDING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70/ SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE -- AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47249805 46799608 44909115 42849110 44329605 44719916 46309932 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 02:06:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 22:06:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250208 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0908 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/PARTS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...744...746... VALID 250208Z - 250345Z SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO N CENTRAL IA WITHIN SMALL AREA BETWEEN WW 743 AND 746...BUT NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS WW 744 -- I.E. SERN ND AND NERN SD. HOWEVER...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PERSIST NOW FROM SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN -- AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/INVOF WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW RESIDES OVER SERN MN...WHERE A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTING ACROSS SRN MN AND ADJACENT NRN IA AND AREA PROFILERS/VWPS DEPICTING WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW 746 AND SWD OUT OF WW 743 INTO N CENTRAL IA...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT SUGGESTS THAT NEW WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43459786 44339671 44529576 43939403 44029117 42889116 42669389 42849801 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 02:30:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 22:30:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250232 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745... VALID 250232Z - 250400Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. UPSTREAM OF WATCH 745...THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WEST CENTRAL WI INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IA VIA LINEAR MCS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF WNW-ESE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN COMMON...INCLUDING 66 MPH/74 MPH MEASURED GUSTS IN ROCHESTER MN...AND ESTIMATED 70-80 MPH WINDS EARLIER IN TREMPEALEAU COUNTY WI. MCS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE /MAINLY ELEVATED/ INSTABILITY. AS THE MCS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WI...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM LA CROSSE TO THE RICHLAND CENTER/PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AREAS...ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY/INCREASING INHIBITION SUGGESTS THE EAST EXTENT OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WELL NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...NAMELY ACROSS CENTRAL WI AREAS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF I-90/I-94...PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/EPISODIC LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44759077 44868994 44758938 44528875 44248803 43888783 42628804 42338891 42368990 42729087 43149117 43989108 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 04:23:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 00:23:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250424 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA/SWRN WI/NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 250424Z - 250600Z STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN MN AND ADJACENT NERN IA/SWRN WI. WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 25/05Z WHEN WW 743 AND 745 ARE SET TO EXPIRE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORM REDEVELOPMENT CONTINUING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA/SWRN WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND SURFACE DATA REVEAL A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS ISENTROPICALLY NEWD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM REDEVELOPMENT INVOF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND FIELD REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH W-E MOVEMENT OF STORMS INITIATING ALONG W-E BOUNDARY AND PERSISTENT FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE SW FUELING THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44029154 43918987 42618897 42038937 43009199 43269423 42929584 43219643 44249642 45079584 45059379 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 07:25:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 03:25:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250727 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...CNTRL/SRN WI...NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 747... VALID 250727Z - 250930Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN IA AND SWRN WI THROUGH EARLY MORNING. 07Z SFC-MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004 MB LOW OVER NWRN IA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NWRN KS. OUTFLOW ENHANCED FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS KDBQ TO KORD. A 45 KT H925-H85 SWLY LLJ...ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE SCALE WAVE OVER MN...WAS IMPINGING ON THE FRONT. ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION WERE CENTERED OVER NERN IA AND SWRN WI WHERE STRONGEST TSTMS HAVE BEEN THRIVING. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS STORMS BACKBUILD...THEN TRACK ESEWD IN A TRAINING FASHION. STRONGEST TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN WI THROUGH 10Z. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION AFTER 09Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE QUICKLY TRANSLATES TOWARD THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT TOWARD THE KDBQ AREA AND COULD EXPAND EWD THROUGH SRN WI. THOUGH ISOLD LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS FARTHER N...GENERALLY THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY STORMS FARTHER TO THE S. ..RACY.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44639254 44408981 43648878 42898872 42668913 42569001 42459086 43119322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 10:03:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 06:03:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251005 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-251100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SRN/WRN WI AND NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 251005Z - 251100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747 WILL EXPIRE AT 11Z. VWP/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO A MORE WLY COMPONENT ACROSS IA. SUBSEQUENT SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WAS SUPPORTING STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SWRN WI. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS EXTREME SERN MN AND WCNTRL WI...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS MN. STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE SINCE 06Z...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TSTM CLUSTERS. PRIMARY ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SRN WI...ECNTRL IA AND NRN IL THROUGH 13Z. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE REGIONS GIVEN MARGINALITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43818922 42268850 41948957 41889031 42109221 44029199 44639166 44779020 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 15:03:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 11:03:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251505 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251505 NYZ000-NJZ000-251700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251505Z - 251700Z ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER NWRN-NRN PORTIONS NYC AREA...ON S EDGE OF LARGER BAND OF NON SVR CONVECTION. THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN LONG ISLAND AND WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND...SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LONG ISLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH ABOUT 1730Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NYC AREA THEN EWD OVER LONG ISLAND. FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD SLIGHTLY TOWARD LONG ISLAND SOUND...BUT SHOULD MOVE LITTLE ELSEWHERE BECAUSE OF REINFORCING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING STORMS OVER NYC AREA APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED NEARLY SFC-BASED PARCELS ALONG WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL LIFT AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. 12Z OKX RAOB NOT AVAILABLE...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG FOR SFC TEMPS MID 70S AND DEW POINTS MID 60S F. VWP MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED JFK SFC WINDS YIELDS 150 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH...MORE THAN RUC SOUNDING BUT STILL CONSTRAINED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. 45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO IS EVIDENT...FAVORING SOME STORM ROTATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX... 40467378 40627389 40827402 40957372 41107277 41027180 40857176 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 16:34:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 12:34:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251635 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN WI...NERN IL...SRN LM...NWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251635Z - 251830Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED...AND PERHAPS INCREASE...AS PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER S-CENTRAL WI MOVE SEWD INTO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. TSTMS PRODUCED SUBSVR GUSTS OF 38 KT AT MSN...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW POOL WILL AID LIFT IN MODE OF SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND SFC WIND TRENDS INDICATE DIFFUSE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS PORTIONS RACINE/WALWORTH/JEFFERSON COUNTIES WI...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MESOLOW ANALYZED OVER SWRN LM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM CLUSTER AND ACT AS NRN BOUND FOR MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. BOUNDARY MAY REACH IL BORDER N ORD BEFORE TSTMS ARRIVE...WHILE SRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD/EXPAND SWD TOWARD I-90 IN NERN IL. INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SFC-BASED -- BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS AREAS SURROUNDING SRN LM. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER REACHES SFC FOR TEMPS 76-79 F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S...WHICH ARE BEING OBSERVED ATTM OVER PORTIONS NERN IL. FURTHER HEATING OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL IL AND NWRN INDIANA WILL BE TEMPERED BY AREAS OF CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE CORRIDOR -- FROM IL/WI BORDER N RFD ESEWD ACROSS CHI AREA -- SHOULD PERMIT TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO 80S WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION -- MANIFEST EITHER IN SUPERCELL OR BOW STRUCTURES. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX... 43158880 42948786 41968607 41358572 40848617 41228769 42348916 42868947 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 18:40:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 14:40:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251842 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA...EXTREME SRN WI...NRN IL...SRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251842Z - 252045Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING W OF SRN PORTION OF LM...TO EXTREME ERN IA. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN CORNER MN...COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS NERN/S-CENTRAL IA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OF LOW BECOMES OBSCURED WITH EWD EXTENT INTO OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN WI. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM LAKE COUNTY IL WNWWD ACROSS IOWA COUNTY WI. ON 18Z SFC MAP...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 20 NW BRL NEWD ACROSS CLINTON COUNTY IA TO GREEN COUNTY WI. W OF THAT LINE...SWLY SFC WINDS REDUCE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED SFC HEATING HAS PERSISTED IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREA FROM ERN IA EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IL...WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY 21Z. SVR POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL FARTHER E...TOWARD ALM...WHERE BUOYANCY WEAKENS. MOST FAVORABLE AREA THEREFORE IS BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CONFLUENCE LINE...ALM...AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LINE ANALYZED INVOF SRN EDGE OF WHITESIDE/LEE/DEKALB COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE DENSE ON BOTH SIDES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED AND PERHAPS SVR ACTIVITY ARE GREATEST ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI BORDER COUNTIES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MRGL LARGELY BECAUSE OF WEAK WINDS AROUND 700 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43158880 42948786 42748760 41658742 41248759 40918843 41268952 41679085 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 21:13:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 17:13:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252115 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252115Z - 252215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND S OF COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER NRN OK...AND CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE INVOF FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 38630099 39949567 39099472 37859463 36759481 36509683 36419833 36460003 36820148 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 22:46:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 18:46:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252248 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252248Z - 260015Z STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WASATCH...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL UT. NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE OVER THE WASATCH AND INTO SWRN WY/NWRN CO...AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN UT. LARGE-SCALE UVV CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN NV. WITH 40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VWPS...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY FAIRLY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OBSERVED ATTM/. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 41101103 41840749 40320652 38900878 38011106 38121263 38691316 39551353 40211304 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 22:57:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 18:57:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252258 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/PARTS OF NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252258Z - 260030Z SEVERE THREAT EVOLVING ACROSS NERN KS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN MO MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AROUND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS INDICATED ACROSS NERN KS AND ADJACENT NWRN MO NEAR AND JUST S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING WSW-ENE ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NERN KS -- IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR/JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...FAVORABLE VEERING -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND JUST N OF FRONT -- APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION. WITH STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS MODEST SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THREAT MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38619815 40059677 40239516 40289360 39159261 38589370 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 25 23:36:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 19:36:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252338 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-260145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...EXTREME E-CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252338Z - 260145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL AND INTO EXTREME E-CNTRL IA. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED TO FRONTAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 2330Z...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EWD INTO DEKALB COUNTY IL. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED FURTHER W INTO CLINTON COUNTY IA. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY TO S OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER S INTO CNTRL IL...DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS GREATER STABILIZATION FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ..GRAMS.. 08/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 41428810 41538921 41719003 41859053 42139075 42389061 42558986 42538887 42378812 41988758 41378745 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 00:54:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 20:54:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260055 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AND CNTRL UT...FAR NWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 749... VALID 260055Z - 260230Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF WW 749...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUING ACROSS WRN PORTION OF WW. AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE WASATCH FRONT MAY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL REMAINS ACROSS NRN GRAND COUNTY UT. ADDITIONAL CELLS FURTHER NEWD INTO MOFFAT COUNTY CO MAY STILL PULSE UPWARD AND COULD POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT. WEAK INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON 00Z GJT SOUNDING SHOULD MITIGATE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS REMAINS AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL GROWTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALONG AND W OF THE WASATCH...ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH...DEVELOPING TOWERING CU/SMALL CBS /PER VIS IMAGERY/ IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE WW...IN SANPETE AND SEVIER COUNTIES...MAY YET INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... 39800749 39150861 38500905 38551262 39341217 40381218 41011098 40980734 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 03:01:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2006 23:01:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260302 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-260430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS/WRN MO/NRN OK/NRN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748...750... VALID 260302Z - 260430Z WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREAS -- PARTICULARLY OVER NERN KS. EVENING TOPEKA KS RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION...WITH 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE STILL IN PLACE OVER ERN KS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MOST INTENSE STORMS REMAIN ACROSS NERN KS ATTM...WITH SEVERAL ROTATING UPDRAFTS/LARGE VIL CORES INDICATED BY AREA RADARS. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING ACROSS SERN KS...EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KS. EWD EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXTENDS SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL KS AND INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. A FURTHER EXPANSION IN STORM COVERAGE OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN KS/FAR NRN OK IS EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ..GOSS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36770191 38029803 40159665 39969412 38629386 36469536 35870118 36140214 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 16:00:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 12:00:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261555 MIZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261555Z - 261800Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS EXPANDING ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL LM...WITH NRN PORTION MOVING INLAND BETWEEN TVC-MBL. REMAINDER OF THIS ACTIVITY -- AS WELL AS MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN LM AND I-75 -- WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSING AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS. EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS WILL POSE MOST CONCENTRATED WIND THREAT. DIFFUSE AND DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED. SRN PORTION EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OH AND NERN INDIANA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ACROSS EXTREME SRN LM. NRN FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DTW AREA NWWD THROUGH LDM AND OVER N-CENTRAL LM...THEN WWD TO WEAK LOW OVER NERN WI. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INVOF WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. SFC FLOW INVOF NRN WARM FRONT IS RELATIVELY BACKED WITH ENOUGH ELY COMPONENT TO FAVORABLY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED APX VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH FOR STORMS MOVING DUE E IN THIS REGIME. ..THOUGH AIR MASS NE OF NRN WARM FRONT BECOMES TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED TSTMS. ALTHOUGH VIS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT RATE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION...LIFTED PARCELS ALONG AND S OF NRN WARM FRONT MAY BE ROOTED NEAR SFC ALREADY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVED LOW 70S F SFC TEMPS AND 70 F DEW POINT YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...WITH VERY WEAK CINH AND EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTED AT GROUND LEVEL. THIS INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MOVING OFF ERN LM MAY BECOME SFC BASED RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MOVING INLAND...IF NOT ALREADY SO. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW DIURNAL HEATING. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44048403 43788485 43898642 44098708 44578638 45438506 45608455 45288379 44418370  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 18:42:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 14:42:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261843 WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO...SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261843Z - 262045Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE E/SE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO AND SWRN WY. THE INTENSITY OF THESE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN AREAS WHERE ROBUST SOLAR HEATING OCCURS IN CONJUCTION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED AROUND 100 TO 150 KM SE OF THE MID/UPPER-LOW CENTER...MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE E-CNTRL/SERN VALLEYS OF UT AND W-CNTRL VALLEYS OF CO. GJT VAD PROFILER SAMPLES THIS CURRENTLY...WITH 50 KTS OF SWLY FLOW AT 6 KM. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MOST LIKELY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CAN REMAIN LARGE. ..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 39811159 40731124 41511019 41720929 41680805 41200737 40070738 38540751 37750773 37360835 37050936 37221069 37721162 38401175 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 20:06:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 16:06:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262007 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-262130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...SWRN/CENTRAL/NERN OK...SERN KS.THE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262007Z - 262130Z POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING OVER BROAD SWATH OF SRN PLAINS FROM NW TX TO NERN OK...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS SERN KS. WW LIKELY OVER SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF MKC...WITH STATIONARY FRONT SWWD ACROSS BUTLER COUNTY KS TO DEWEY COUNTY OK. BAROCLINIC ZONE IS STRONGER FARTHER SW OVER EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK AND SRN TX PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY FROM BECKHAM COUNTY OK PAST LBB... BECAUSE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THAT SEGMENT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AS A COLD FRONT ATTM BUT MAY STALL TEMPORARILY FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...WEAK HEAT LOW IS EVIDENT ABOUT 35 SW FSI...WITH SFC TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS KINGFISHER AND OSAGE COUNTIES OK...AND SWWD THROUGH MAF AREA. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL AR WNWWD ACROSS OKMULGEE COUNTY OK...INTERSECTING TROUGH OVER KINGFISHER COUNTY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN/ERN OK. VIS/REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND VISUAL OBSERVATION SHOWS VIGOROUS YOUNG CB NEAR THAT INTERSECTION AS OF 1945Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND BETWEEN TROUGH AND FRONT...THROUGH 23Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT STRONGLY AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION E OF FRONT...WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND HIGH STORM BASES LIKELY DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSOLATION AND MID-60S/LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND MORE WEAKENING OF CINH. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL...EVEN AS FAR S AS W-CENTRAL/NW TX WHERE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK. ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED OVER OK AND SERN KS INVOF FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS WILL AID STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32460261 34610125 37269742 37689608 36849596 36079566 35569461 34739514 34649696 32809863 32100150 32330228 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 22:46:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 18:46:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262247 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SRN WY...WRN AND CNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 262247Z - 270015Z OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL HELP STABILIZE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN POCKETS OF UNUSED INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS CO. PORTIONS OF THE WW IN ERN UT MAY BE CLEARED EARLY...AS ADDITIONAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY. NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN SEVERE...HAVE GENERALLY TRANSITIONED FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS INTO VARIOUS MULTICELLULAR BANDS ACROSS THE WW. WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO. GJT VAD PROFILER HAS INDICATED WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF ERN UT. CONTINUED DRYING IN THE SRN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AS WELL AS STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF ERN UT. E OF THE WW...SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL DEVELOPED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DENVER AND COLORADO SPRINGS. THESE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER AROUND I-70 IN FAR ERN ARAPAHOE AND ERN ELBERT COUNTIES. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED FURTHER E...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. ..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... 41560509 40390416 39830353 38800395 37730520 37210684 37070897 37681038 38511109 40191115 41121048 41610913 41790771 41850631 41750541 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 26 23:40:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 19:40:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262341 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN OK/SE KS/SW MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752... VALID 262341Z - 270115Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN WW 752. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR EXPECTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SW OK TO NERN OK /OSAGE COUNTY/ AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE KS THIS EVENING AS SLOW STORM MOTION GENERALLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT RESULTS IN TRAINING OF STORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION AND NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES PRODUCT FOR THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NW TX NEWD ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL AND NE OK TO SERN KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER NE/CENTRAL OK EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF BVO TO 10 S CQB AND THEN WSWWD TO JUST N OF CHK AND INTERSECTED THE COLD FRONT IN WRN CADDO COUNTY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW/GUST FRONT AS BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES MOVE SEWD...WITH ACTIVITY THEN TENDING TO TRAIN NEWD IN WAKE OF OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING E ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 08/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38019673 37999381 36499412 35489538 34889660 34619768 34319864 34389940 34279994 35319954 36059933 37099778 38019706 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 00:46:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 20:46:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270048 MIZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270048Z - 270115Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT WW NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SANILAC COUNTY WSWWD TO ALONG THE BORDER OF GRATIOT/CLINTON COUNTIES IN SERN-SERN LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SMALL SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LOW LCLS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY. THUS...WW IS NOT EXPECTED... BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43188489 43288367 43738258 42938230 42178283 41748338 41848433 42558504 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 01:05:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 21:05:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270106 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-270130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270106Z - 270130Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IND AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF WRN OH. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN IL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IND DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WAA HAS INCREASED ALONG AXIS OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. WSR-88D VAD AT IND AND WIND PROFILER IN NW IND HAVE SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED AND STRENGTHENED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN MCV NOW LOCATED OVER IL. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG LLJ WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM IND INTO WRN OH. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST ROTATING STORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AS HAVE BEEN INDICATE ALREADY PER RECENT IND WSR-88D VOLUME SCANS. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 39738762 40768741 41398702 41418494 40788430 39268447 38678532 38528690 38838776 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 02:44:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 26 Aug 2006 22:44:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270246 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TO NE OK/SE KS/SW MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 752... VALID 270246Z - 270415Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 752...BUT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NE OK INTO PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO ERN KS/NERN OK WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT SUPPORTING STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 752 OVER NERN OK AND FAR SERN KS. AIR MASS ACROSS NERN OK TO SWRN MO REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 35 KT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS NERN PART OF WW 752. MEANWHILE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SW TO NE OK. FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION AND NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES STATEMENT FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37989409 36599406 35389534 34899664 34519787 34279896 34519970 35069988 36149929 36959791 37389661 38039565 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 04:46:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 00:46:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270447 OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753... VALID 270447Z - 270615Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WW. RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WW 753 ATTM...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS IL ATTM. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SRN INDIANA...ALTHOUGH STORMS REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE. SOME VEERING PERSISTS WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE PERSISTING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX... 40958615 40978499 40068476 38648505 38578681 38708756 39288756 39948665 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 05:42:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 01:42:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270543 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IND INTO SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 270543Z - 270715Z A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NERN IND EARLY THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SWLY 25-30 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WAS SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS FROM NRN/WRN OH SWWD INTO SWRN IND. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SRN IND INTO SWRN OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WAS THE GREATEST. THE KINEMATIC SET-UP FEATURING A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ALIGNED WITH THE GEOMETRY OF THE PCPN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT TRAINING OF TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN IND. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE TRANSLATION OF THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN OH AND THE CONCURRENT RELAXATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE REDUCED EARLY THIS MORNING. ..RACY.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 38828705 40218549 40448445 39988381 39288399 38808491 38398706 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 17:12:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 13:12:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271713 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-271915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR...S-CENTRAL/SERN MO...NWRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271713Z - 271915Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR IS INCREASING FROM OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. BAND OF TSTMS GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS WRN OZARKS OF AR/MO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO DESTABILIZING AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT IDEAL FOR INTENSE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN INFLOW LAYER WILL BOOST BOTH BUOYANCY AND DCAPE...AND MAY AID POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR GUSTS. SFC TEMPS MID-80S/LOW-90S F...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...WILL OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG AND SBCAPES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG IN SUPPORT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AHEAD OF THIS BAND AS WELL...IN PRONOUNCED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM BMG...EVV...CGI...25 S TBN...SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS DISCRETE/MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AMBIENT WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOWER AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...KEEPING VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES SMALL. ..EDWARDS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37339337 37569145 37868968 38478705 37718700 36908842 36669029 36459123 35379245 35409387 35369445 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 19:11:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 15:11:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271911 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN PA...SERN INDIANA...CENTRAL/SRN OH...CENTRAL THROUGH NERN KY...NRN THROUGH WRN WV. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271911Z - 272115Z STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SDF-PIT...EVENTUALLY INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND NERN KY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS GRADUALLY ARE INCREASING IN STRENGTH ACROSS THIS REGION AS INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE HEATED/UNSTABLE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MRGL FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH SOME ROTATION AND RELATED ENHANCEMENT TO HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP. WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL TO GENERATE VERY LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN CONCERN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN OH AND CENTRAL INDIANA...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE LINE FROM E-CENTRAL OH SWWD THROUGH CVG/EVV AREAS...AND DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NEWD OVER EXTREME ERN OH...EXTREME SWRN PA AND NRN MD. S OF WARM FRONT AND CONVERGENCE BAND...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S-MID 70S F AND SFC HEATING WILL OFFSET NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES INVOF OH RIVER...WITH SLIGHT INCREASING TREND SWWD. BY CONTRAST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL DIMINISH SWWD WITH DISTANCE FROM GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH SERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO IS LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR AROUND 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...FOR ANY CELLS SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL SEWD/RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 37098583 39358590 41078005 38917990 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 19:19:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 15:19:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271920 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN KS...WRN PANHANDLES OF OK AND TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271920Z - 272115Z THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES SE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR CYS. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SWD IN ERN CO INTO NERN NM/OK AND TX PANHANDLES IN VICINITY OF A MESOLOW NEAR SPD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG SPEED SHEAR. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN CO/WRN NEB AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. TO THE S OF THIS CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO A N/S ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO AND MESOLOW IN SERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION ALONG THE CO/NM/OK BORDER. MODIFIED MORNING RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. GDA WIND PROFILER INDICATES GOOD MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH 50 KTS OF WLY FLOW AT 6 KM. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES...WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-1 KM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A KEY MITIGATING FACTOR. ..GRAMS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37300417 37750350 38140332 39190328 39950255 40190191 39240144 38000080 37070096 35930174 35380262 35290413 35990476 36980464 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 27 23:28:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2006 19:28:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272329 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SWRN NEB...WRN KS...NERN NM...WRN PANHANDLES OF TX AND OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754... VALID 272329Z - 280100Z LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS UNLIKELY FURTHER E OF CURRENT WW...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS...MUCH OF CO MAY BE CLEARED FROM THE WATCH BY 00Z. ONGOING STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THESE TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVES E INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS. FURTHER W...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR SNY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL DRYING UNDER NW WINDS EVIDENT N OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. TSTMS ACROSS NERN NM/FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOW. CONVERGENCE INTO THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAK...HOWEVER ISOLATED HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 08/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 40509900 39839884 38389970 37160044 36250102 35480180 35410367 35730472 36950462 38180363 39540281 40780277 41250211 41180031 41089949 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 03:00:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 29 Aug 2006 23:00:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300302 FLZ000-300500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758... VALID 300302Z - 300500Z WW 758 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. WW RE-ISSUANCE BEYOND 06Z APPEARS UNLIKELY UNLESS MESOSCALE CONDITIONS UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. LATE THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS JUST N OF THE CNTRL FL KEYS AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE NWWD TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOW ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS E OF THE CENTER ABOUT 20 MILES OFF THE SERN FL COAST. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING WNWWD. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE ALONG THE SERN FL COAST WITH DEEP ELY FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM AND MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME SERN COAST OF FL AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NWWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WELL E OF THE CENTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. ..DIAL.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... 25148038 25548086 26368139 27448084 27247989 25467964 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 16:55:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 12:55:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301657 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-301900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NC...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301657Z - 301900Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NC AND WRN SC OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN WRN NC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE VA-NC STATE-LINE AND SWWD ACROSS WRN SC INTO NRN GA. DESTABILIZATION HAS QUICKLY OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN NC AND NRN SC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IS MOVING NNEWD INTO WRN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING IN SRN NC AND IN THE MTNS IN WRN NC AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE WEAKENING CAP AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN NC SHOW STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 35127646 34817785 34687994 34428061 33678149 34238258 34598272 35208240 36058153 36258046 36527818 36607689 36237632 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 17:28:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 13:28:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 301731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301730 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN AL...ERN AND SRN MS...SERN LA...FAR WRN GA...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 301730Z - 302000Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2.00 INCHES PER GPS SENSORS AND MORNING SOUNDINGS....WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG OVER SRN MS/AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS STORMS TO FORM...WITH A FEW OF THEM PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY AID IN SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. ..JEWELL.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29918939 30449108 31039050 32748919 33508784 33358584 32798458 32328452 31528460 30358487 29638511 30278605 30378691 30198805 30128910 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 30 20:39:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 16:39:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302041 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...SERN MT...FAR WRN NEB...EXTREME ERN WY AND SWRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 302041Z - 302315Z ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND WILL MOVE EWD WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TOWERING CU NOW DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. TO THE EAST...SLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS IS MAINTAINING 45-55 F DEWPOINTS E OF DRYLINE. A FEW STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AS LOW LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG WRN DAKOTAS BORDER AREA...AND A WEAK LEAD UPPER VORT MOVES EWD OUT OF CNTRL WY. INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE DRY MICRO BURST THREAT. STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE LOW END HAIL ONCE THEY INGEST MORE MOIST AIR E OF DRYLINE W/DEWPTS LOWER 50S F. HOWEVER...CAPPING INCREASES DRAMATICALLY INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS/NEB WHICH WILL LIMIT EWD THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW... 42480236 41280298 41640426 41990436 42230429 42680422 43400384 43830413 44370458 44980532 45400586 45940667 46290650 46890483 47200428 46990357 45470274 43690211 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 31 00:20:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2006 20:20:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310022 NCZ000-SCZ000-310115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC INT NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 759... VALID 310022Z - 310115Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01-02Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. AS OF 0015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR RDU TO 35 W FLO WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 255/20-25 KTS. 00Z MHX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS LIKELY WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASE. PRIOR TO THIS TIME...STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OWING TO DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 35127912 35547886 35827852 35987802 35837732 35207720 34077887 33768002 34058036 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 31 20:53:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 16:53:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312055 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 312055Z - 312300Z STORMS WILL FORM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU OVER ERN CO ALONG SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT AND ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE MAY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS CIN GETS ERASED WITH CONTINUED HEATING. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO. FARTHER E...CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NWRN OK...WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ARE BEING MAINTAINED BY BACKED SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WRN KS/OK INTO FAR ERN CO...PRODUCING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SVR UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISRUPT STORM STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS BRIEFLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE. LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 08/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 39540397 40210281 40200207 39510115 38850024 37769919 36609891 36419903 36519967 37220083 38130343 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 31 21:48:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 17:48:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312150 NCZ000-312315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 312150Z - 312315Z SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING NWD ALONG FAR ERN NC. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 2135Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 65 SSE CRE. MEANWHILE BUOY DATA AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF THIS CIRCULATION NEWD BETWEEN SUT AND BUOY 41013. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING CONSIDERABLY TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR AND TO THE SE OF THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NNEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY PIVOT NWWD...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS MOVING ONSHORE. THIS DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /REF. MHX/LTX VWPS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2/...INDICATES AN INCREASING THREAT OF SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... 33727853 34347829 34987764 35467663 35787585 35677545 35307532 34527633 33907743 33587815 WWWW