[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 26 19:09:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261905 
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS/MOST OF AL/FAR NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261905Z - 262100Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL MOVE EWD FROM NRN AL TOWARDS WW
255. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER S ALONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS ERN MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AL. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 800
J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

FURTHER S INTO PORTIONS OF ERN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM GULF COAST MCS MOVING E OF AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MLCAPES TO REACH AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE MORNING MCS WILL KEEP MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INTACT AND MITIGATE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 04/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

31718980 33208837 34298703 35018590 34908455 34218453
33368504 32068634 31188744 31238901 

WWWW