[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 26 11:08:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261105 
TXZ000-261200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254...

VALID 261105Z - 261200Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA.  SOME OR ALL OF
WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE SCHEDULED 12Z EXPIRATION...OTHERWISE WW
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT FURTHER ISSUANCE.

VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SPEED MAX CLOSELY CORRESPONDS TO WRN EDGE OF MOST CONCENTRATED
PRECIP...AND IS APCHG SABINE RIVER ATTM. 
MEANWHILE...STABLE/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS REGION. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED/DEVELOPED EWD
ACROSS LA...OUT OF AREA OF OPTIMAL COMBINED INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PROFILES THAT STILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS S TX...BASED ON MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  ELEVATED BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER
REGION...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY STRENGTHENS WITH WWD EXTENT. 
OCCASIONAL TSTM FORMATION AND POTENTIAL FOR MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
LINGER WELL N OF FRONT...GENERALLY E OF I-45 AND NEAR NRN EDGE OF
ORIGINAL WW.  HOWEVER...APPARENT LACK OF ELEVATED ASCENT BEHIND
MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION INDICATES LOW PROBABILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL/ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT BEFORE WW EXPIRES.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

30889623 30919564 31369494 30749461 29869436 29859493
30099510 30019530 30099550 30079581 30209584 30219612
30409610 

WWWW