[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Apr 26 01:48:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 260145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260145 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN AR...WRN LA...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260145Z - 260315Z

CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TX...WRN LA...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN
AR...LATE THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED...BUT INTENSE...CONVECTION MOVING
EAST ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE ACTING ON VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE SURFACE-BASED
FRONTAL INVERSION. FARTHER EAST...FROM TX/LA BORDER NWD/EWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. LATEST
RUC...GFS...AND ETAKF GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WOULD THEN DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PROBABLE BASED ON EVENING
RAOB DATA FROM SHV AND LCH INDICATING LITTLE INHIBITION EXISTS
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW
AND ADEQUATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH INITIAL
CELL ROTATION...AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING COLD POOLS. THUS...
INCREASINGLY POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SUGGESTS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

..CARBIN.. 04/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30209348 30489444 31099454 32939370 33289327 33249212
31629214 

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