[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 252216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252216 
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...SWRN VA...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252216Z - 252345Z

THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND WRN NC THIS
EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION SHORTLY.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SWD/SEWD TOWARD SWRN VA AND NERN TN
WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INCREASING. LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF PROGRESSIVE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
KY/TN. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA LATER TONIGHT.
DIURNAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AS CONVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...  PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO
BE FROM A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS ORGANIZED
INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. AREAL COVERAGE MAY REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN TIME
OF DAY...BUT FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY SUSTAIN THE SEVERE
THREAT INTO THE NIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

36517883 35588023 35308204 35328309 35408372 35658392
36368299 36828185 37298043 37447995 37497933 37397896
36867861 

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