[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Apr 25 20:14:20 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 252011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252011 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR..PARTS OF WRN KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252011Z - 252115Z

A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS TO
BE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED IN LINGERING MOIST
LAYER ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER AREA SEEMS POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS
AREA IS GENERALLY WEAKENING...BUT 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS
CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE CONFINED TO A
RELATIVELY NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR.

..KERR.. 04/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

36809202 36849127 36989060 37239021 37268948 37008893
36388906 36028950 35859012 35819083 35969192 36179217 

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