[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Apr 24 06:30:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240627 
KSZ000-OKZ000-240830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL-NERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 240627Z - 240830Z

TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON BOTH SIDES OF KS/OK
BORDER...N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY MCS THAT NOW IS
DECAYING OVER SRN MO.  MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL.  GUST
POTENTIAL BECOMES LARGER WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH DISCUSSION
AREA...AND PROXIMITY TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  61 KT GUST WAS MEASURED
IN WOODWARD COUNTY OK AT 540Z.

6Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN DELAWARE COUNTY
OK SWWD TO LINCOLN COUNTY...THEN NWWD ACROSS LOGAN/GARFIELD COUNTIES
TO VICINITY NRN MAJOR/EXTREME SERN WOODS COUNTY.  BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN OK THROUGH AT LEAST 8Z. 
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD STALL SOON FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NWWD TO NEAR
END...AND ALREADY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FARTHER W.  BAND OF
TSTMS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED FROM PORTIONS PRATT COUNTY KS SWD
TO WRN MAJOR COUNTY OK AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ALONG BOTH
SIDES KS/OK BORDER.  ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM
STAFFORD COUNTY KS SEWD TO KAY COUNTY OK...IN ZONE OF 850 MB WIND
SHIFT AND APPARENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAX.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IN
REGIME OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AIDED BY 40-50 KT LLJ EVIDENT IN
VWP DATA.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
APCHG 9 DEG C/KM...ALONG WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 13.5-15 DEG
C...SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG ROOTED AT TOP OF
OUTFLOW AIR...WHICH DEEPENS WITH NWD EXTENT.  30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...MAINLY
MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER.  STRONG CINH EVIDENT S OF OUTFLOW AIR
MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT SWD PROPAGATION/BACKBUILDING OF
THIS ACTIVITY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36119939 36709876 37319883 38249896 38399866 38339652
38069545 37599495 36769520 36259635 36199874 

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