[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Apr 23 07:15:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230712 
TXZ000-NMZ000-230945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230712Z - 230945Z

TSTMS ARE FORMING OVER PORTIONS PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN
REGIONS...FROM ERN CULBERSON COUNTY TX ENEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER OF
NM.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
ENEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. OCCASIONAL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED ATTM TO WARRANT WW.

CONVENTIONAL SFC DATA AND W TX MESONET OBS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM KENT COUNTY SWWD ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY TX...TO NEAR SERN TIP OF NM...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE.  AIR
MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUAL DIABATIC
COOLING...BENEATH 40-50 KT SSELY LLJ NOW EVIDENT IN MAF VWP AND JTN
PROFILER.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM TO SUPPORT
CURRENT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
REGION...BASED ON 00Z DRT RAOB AND 850 MB ANALYSIS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC...WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ABOVE WRN PORTION OF
OUTFLOW AIR MASS.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH EWD
EXTENT ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION.  WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW
IN 500-700 MB LAYER WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEARS IN 20-35 KT RANGE. 
ALSO...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING CINH FROM MAF/LBB
LONGITUDE EWD.

..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

31300378 31500407 31920405 32230386 32650305 33000220
32790134 32330129 31430229 31120332 31150370 

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