[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 230304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230244 
MOZ000-KSZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS....WRN/CNTRL MO...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230244Z - 230445Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT FROM
NERN KS ACROSS WRN...CNTRL...AND ERN MO. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM ECNTRL KS TO SCNTRL MO WERE
LIKELY AIDING STORM INITIATION FROM TOP/MKC AREA TO SERN MO LATE
THIS EVENING. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND 850 MB...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. GIVEN
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BAND...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70KT WILL PROMOTE STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN HAIL. GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
MAY BE INHIBITED BY LACK OF MORE WELL-DEFINED LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE
ON ASCENT AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT LIMITED EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS FEEDING
INTO THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING.

..CARBIN.. 04/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37929497 38249656 39279768 39629727 39629524 39379418
39069313 38349063 38099037 37889046 37649072 37589117
37609140 37629180 37629251 37789364 37819438 

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