[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221035 
NCZ000-VAZ000-221230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NC...S-CENTRAL VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221035Z - 221230Z

TSTM SQUALL LINE -- EXTENDING FROM NC/VA BORDER VICINITY
MTV...THROUGH GSO AREA TO UNION COUNTY NC AS OF 1015Z -- SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD 35-45 KT TOWARD S-CENTRAL VA.  OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- BUT CAPABLE OF DMG TO WEAK
STRUCTURES AND TREES -- MAY CONTINUE ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. ATTM...WW NOT EXPECTED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM NERN WV SEWD ACROSS
SERN VA...S OF WHICH SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-MID 60S F FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DIABATIC HEATING COMMENCES AND/OR
CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SOME
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS POSSIBLE FROM MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION
THAT EVOLVED FROM MCV PRODUCED BY SE TX ACTIVITY 24 HOURS AGO. 
AHEAD OF THIS PERTURBATION...DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH BUOYANT LAYER...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES
AROUND 700-800 J/KG ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC.  OBSERVATION SITES OVER
NRN SC AND WRN NC CROSSED BY THIS LINE HAVE MEASURED GUSTS IN 25-37
KT RANGE...LESS THAN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF SQUALL LINE ITSELF IN
MOST AREAS.  RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC -- EVIDENT IN MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT
OF MOST INTENSE SFC WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

34908048 35578028 35887997 36327995 36578013 37457841
37287784 36607756 36457753 36017766 35177885 

WWWW