[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 22 07:56:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220754 
FLZ000-ALZ000-220930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SRN AL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236...

VALID 220754Z - 220930Z

BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS REMAIN
ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA...HOWEVER ORIENTATION/STRUCTURE OF CONVECTION
IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND MAY
COMPEL EARLY CANCELLATION OF SOME OR ALL THIS WW.

WITH VPS RADAR DATA MISSING...WW IS NOT WELL SAMPLED FOR
OBSERVATIONAL WINDS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
WIND TRENDS FROM SERN AL RADAR SUGGEST SLOWLY DIMINISHING VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES...BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR REMAINING TO
ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS...YIELDING 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH OVER PORTIONS
WRN FL PANHANDLE.  MLCAPES UP TOO 1500 J/KG ARE EVIDENT AS
WELL...SUPPORTED BY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS.
BY CONTRAST...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
DISORGANIZED AND LESS DISCRETE...WITH MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MEAN FLOW VECTORS.  WHEN
ACCOUNTING FOR TRANSLATIONAL MCS MOTION...THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ANAFRONTAL REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPING DISCRETE MODE. 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY MOVE INLAND FROM GULF OR OCCUR OVER
ANTECEDENT WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW ATTM
BECAUSE OF PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN SFC FLOW AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
MCS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

29778867 30388776 30958657 30858517 30558479 29968452
29508508 29668569 29868687 29828789 

WWWW