[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 21 17:54:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211752 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...CNTRL/SRN MS...INTO CNTRL/SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...

VALID 211752Z - 211915Z

CONTINUE WW.  CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON

CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD POOL IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NATCHEZ/
BATON ROUGE/LAFAYETTE AREAS.  THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR
INTENSIFYING CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  ACTIVITY IS
NOW LIKELY BASED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION.  THIS AIR MASS
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE CAPE MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY
PEAK HEATING.

DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH/JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED EVOLUTION
OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AS SURFACE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS...
EASTWARD ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 30-40+ KT
APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. GUST FRONT MAY ADVANCE EAST OF THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
BORDER BY 21-22Z.

..KERR.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

32489031 32998906 33018834 33078771 32778738 32338709
31798710 31228726 30838735 30188768 29758804 29428857
29088939 28969007 29089072 30419060 31009088 

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