[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211451 
MSZ000-LAZ000-211615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211451Z - 211615Z

WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MAINTENANCE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY
TO REMAIN THE CASE AS IT SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND SOUTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...REMAINS MOIST...AND WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WITH HEATING.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG...AND SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOWS SUPPORT INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT...
BUT APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  BENEATH 40+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...THIS 
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLY STRONG MEAN FLOW/SHEAR REGIME FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK
OF LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

32569148 32779086 32849026 33098966 33188874 32218874
31758908 31098937 30498951 29938979 29708972 29499024
29449087 29699171 29789230 30029265 30449261 30979242
31339195 31839168 32169164 

WWWW