[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 21 09:39:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210936 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-211100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...

VALID 210936Z - 211100Z

MAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS
FAR NRN MS WHERE OUTFLOW FROM W MERGES WITH E-W BOUNDARY JUST N OF
THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY
DIMINISH TO THE POINT THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT NECESSARY.

ONE MCS WITH A WEAK BOW STRUCTURE IS MOVING ENEWD INTO NW MS...WHILE
OTHER CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG A DIFFUSE E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN. THE WRN MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
NRN MS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOR SPORADIC
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE ERN PROGRESS OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE LIMITED LATER THIS MORNING BY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVER NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN.  GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TRENDS NOTED IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE FORECAST
OF DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH TIME...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED AFTER WW 229 EXPIRES AT 10Z.

..THOMPSON.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...BMX...HUN...JAN...

35478933 35628928 

33808928 33959006 34429018 35099004 35498957 35668827
35588700 35338665 34728656 34348669 33908767 

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