[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 21 02:34:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210231 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-210400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / FAR NW MS / MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210231Z - 210400Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A THREAT OF SOME SVR HAIL. A WW COULD BE
REQUIRED SOON.

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NRN MS INTO SRN AR / NRN LA. ALTHOUGH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...CAPPING EXISTS AS SEEN ON
00Z JAN SOUNDING AS WELL AS TAMDAR DATA ACROSS CENTRAL
MS...DECREASING TO THE NORTH WITH NO CAP ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY
FROM WRN TN ACROSS FAR NRN MS AND INTO CENTRAL AR. MODERATE WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER VORT ASSOCIATED WITH E TX
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THE
MCD AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33709124 34268958 35008829 35388715 36558711 36458834
36219006 35039267 34249411 33669420 33289369 33289259 

WWWW