[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 20:44:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202040 
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-202245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NRN/WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...

VALID 202040Z - 202245Z

GREATEST SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER WW 221 WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SERN PORTIONS OF WW 221 / CENTRAL AND NERN AL / WITH CLUSTER
OF STG-SVR STORMS ONGOING. THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE MOST
MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AS MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER OUTFLOW AIR REDUCES RENEWED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
OF TUP TO NEAR BHM TO NERN AL/NWRN GA. SVR STORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL/NERN AL IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF A MESOLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE BHM AREA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER WCENTRAL GA SUGGESTS THAT THE
SVR THREAT SHOULD EXTEND EAST OF WW 221. CURRENT STORM MOTIONS WOULD
TAKE THE SVR THREAT WITH THIS CLUSTER INTO FAR ECENTRAL AL/WCENTRAL
GA BEGINNING AROUND 22Z. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS ALL OF NRN GA...AS AN N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING JUST
EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR MCN SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR NRN GA
SHORTLY.

..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

35478481 35488795 34998808 32908830 32938495 33008379
34978339 35008496 

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