[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 20:00:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201958 
TXZ000-202100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW THRU CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219...220...

VALID 201958Z - 202100Z

SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW TORNADO
WATCH BEFORE 21Z.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE TRANS PECOS REGION. 
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH
OF OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING
INHIBITION.  MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION SHIFTING
FROM SOUTH OF MIDLAND THROUGH THE JUNCTION AREA BETWEEN 20/21-21/00Z
SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR INTENSE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH
HEIGHT IN LOWER-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS 50 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM NOSES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ALONG
WITH CONTINUING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

31000221 31830226 31750099 31340038 31299959 31239871
30679771 29649824 29369952 29920118 30400237 

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