[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201853 
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-202100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...WRN NC AND UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201853Z - 202100Z

CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER FAR SERN TN/NWRN GA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS TN AND ON THE NRN END
OF INSTABILITY AXIS. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY INCREASING SVR
THREAT OVER THIS AREA...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

18Z SOUNDING FROM ATLANTA SHOWS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG /. CONVECTION
RECENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NWRN GA AND SERN TN WAS IN AN AXIS WHERE
DEWPTS AND INSTABILITY WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DESPITE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER NERN GA...WRN NC/UPSTATE SC THERE
MAY BE SOME MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

36038242 35738357 35298429 35008455 34678466 34228430
34138395 34128331 34778234 35598163 

WWWW