[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Apr 20 16:27:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201624 
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-201830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SRN OH...W VA...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201624Z - 201830Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/
TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS MOSTLY BASED ABOVE
LINGERING RADIATIONAL INVERSION LAYER...SUPPORTED BY BROAD ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS AIDED BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
18-20Z TIME FRAME.  

CUT-OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE RETURN...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  THIS WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...WEAK SURFACE
BASED DESTABILIZATION SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME 
INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

38528483 39238460 39478267 39238134 38338071 37038059
36368105 35408230 34988328 35188457 35698469 36188472
37278438 38178455 

WWWW